We are more than half way through the clay court campaign and this week we will be the last time we see the top players before they head to Paris for the second major of the year. At this stage of the season it seems that Rafa and Novak have picked up from where they left off last year when they were dominating grand slams before Rafa's injury. Novak scored a massive win in Monte Carlo where he interrupted Rafa's eight year reign in the principality but Nadal has come back strongly taking to titles in the last three weeks including the Masters 1000 title in Madrid. So can either of them get the win this week to take all the momentum to Roland Garros? Let's look at how the two can expected to perform this week.
Rafa Nadal has arguably been the best player on the tour this season. Since his comeback from a seven month lay off he has been in the final of every event he's taken part in and won five titles including two Masters 1000 titles. He leads the field in tour wins which is remarkable considering he didn't play until late February. He wasn't at his best for much of last week but we can attribute that to the altitude which usually causes him problems but his performance in the final was stunning. I expect him to beat Ferrer in this week's quarter final and set up a possible mouth watering clash with Djokovic in the semi finals.
Djokovic himself has been imperious this season. Winning the Australian Open and Monte Carlo crowns have been the highlights but a recent ankle injury has slightly hampered his form. A loss early to Grigor Dimitrov last week was out of character for the Serb but the extra time off will have allowed him more time to acclimatise himself with surroundings in Rome and be in top shape for this week. The draw hasn't been kind to him but that doesn't worry me and I think he will get over the in form Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych on his way to a semi finals.
Andy Murray has talked a good game lately but now is the time to show his true qualities. A few years back he lacked a lot of the qualities needed to reach the top. Now he lacks just one. Aggression. We see it at times playing lesser opponents on hard courts but when it really matters he is too passive. This makes no sense because when he plays aggressive he is right up there with Novak and Rafa. On clay he is way too defensive. Nobody wins the French Open slicing the ball more than they hit top spin. He got what was coming to him against Wawrinka in Monte Carlo and he paid for his lack of competitive playing time when Berdych beat him last week. The draw this week gives him a golden opportunity to reach his first clay court final but can he take advantage of it?
Roger Federer suffered an early loss to Kei Nishikori last week while trying to defend his Madrid title and needs a good week here to be considered a contender in Paris. Federer has taken a long break until now and will be hoping to be in top shape heading into the Summer where there are a lot of tournaments there for the taking, especially Wimbledon and the US Open. I think Roger will be in trouble all week here because there is danger in almost every round and for that reason I don't see him winning the title here.
There are three players in the field this week that I think can have huge seasons. At the start of the season I believed Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro could be potential grand slam winners and I still think that. Both are playing some exceptional tennis this year and have the ability to compete with the very best at the best events especially Wimbledon and the US Open. Another man has joined them. Stanislas Wawrinka has been at his very best this season and made a big statement last week showing he can compete on clay too with a superb run to the final of Madrid.
All three have a chance to further their season with wins this week. Unfortunately for Wawrinka and Berdych they will have to do it the hard way to win this week being placed in Djokovic and Nadal's half but Del Potro has a real chance. He could face Murray in a quarter final and Federer in a semi final and I would expect him to win both of those matches. The problem for him could be an early meeting with Nicolas Almagro who might be able to spring a surprise. Almagro himself is capable of reaching a semi final or final this week but consistency can be a problem for the Spaniard.
Grigor Dimitrov has pushed Nadal close on clay and beaten Djokovic so could he challenge for the title this week? I don't think so. I've seen him have good weeks before and follow it up with early exits and I think we will again this week. I think Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be a relatively surprising finalist this week. Clay has never been his strongest surface but he can still beat a lot of players on the dirt. I would give him a real chance of getting to a final this week.
Outside of those players mentioned I don't see anybody else winning this week. The winner will come from the top half semi final battle. I think Nadal and Djokovic will meet this week and battle it out for crucial momentum ahead of Roland Garros. The conditions favour Nadal in the sense that it will play as a traditional clay court with a bit of wind. However, the arena suits Novak. There isn't as much room for defending at the back of the court and that will allow Djokovic play aggressively and get quick points. I think the semi final meeting between these two will be sensational but I think Rafa will come through a tight three set match. In the final he could meet anyone but I'm going to say Del Potro defies his lack of recent match practice to make a final appearance.
Tuesday 14 May 2013
Friday 10 May 2013
Madrid Masters Quarter Finals
The first four quarter finals were previewed last night and here we have the final four. These matches are all very competitive and could go either way so let's see who we think will still be playing tomorrow.
Sara Errani vs Ekaterina Makarova
This one is very tricky to call. I think Errani is certainly the better clay court player but Makarova has been playing very well this week. She's beaten Azarenka and Bartoli and is playing very well. I like Makarova and I think she is a fantastic player but you've got to be so mentally tough to beat Errani on this surface. I'm not sure she will be able to live with the fiery Italian. Errani is someone who can win this tournament and I think she'll be around on semi final day. Errani in three.
Ana Ivanovic vs Angelique Kerber
Ivanovic is on the way up and is playing some super tennis right now. I really like the way she is playing and I don't think it will be long before she is competing for majors again. Kerber is having a good season results wise but her form is very up and down. Her match with Kuznetsova was such a huge win for her I think it could be the turning point in her season. How she won it I'll never know but she did and I'm hoping that's the point we'll look back at in a few months as the moment she turned her form around. She would relish a shot at Sharapova again tomorrow and I don't think Ivanovic will stand in the way of that. Kerber in two.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
This one will go the distance. They've met four times and the recurring theme of this rivalry is final set deciders. Tsonga has the better of their record winning three times including a few weeks ago in Monte Carlo. I like Wawrinka a lot this week. He has been playing some super tennis and the way he dismantled Dimitrov in the final two sets yesterday was impressive. Wawrinka is a man who can disrupt the top five and with Federer gone he would certainly fancy his chances of making a final here. I think Wawrinka goes into this as the favourite and he is starting to show he can cope with the added pressure. Wawrinka in three.
Andy Murray vs Tomas Berdych
This one is going to be short and sweet in my opinion. Murray has serious problems on this surface and although he got away with it against Mayer and Simon, he will be in trouble against Berdych. Murray's movement isn't up to scratch on this clay. He struggles with sliding and is off balance hitting shots. The biggest problem he faces is he is far to defensive. You cannot win clay court matches against top players by constantly slicing the ball and looping it into the court. You have to hit the ball, you need top spin and depth. When you play Simon and Mayer on clay, if you aren't the aggressor you need to look at how you're playing the game. Berdych has been super this week and although clay might not be his favoured surface the altitude is helping him this week. He will employ the same tactics he did when he faced Murray at the US Open. He will attack the second serve and step inside the baseline to hit ground strokes to hurt Murray. All their meetings on clay have been comfortable and this will too. Berdych in two.
Sara Errani vs Ekaterina Makarova
This one is very tricky to call. I think Errani is certainly the better clay court player but Makarova has been playing very well this week. She's beaten Azarenka and Bartoli and is playing very well. I like Makarova and I think she is a fantastic player but you've got to be so mentally tough to beat Errani on this surface. I'm not sure she will be able to live with the fiery Italian. Errani is someone who can win this tournament and I think she'll be around on semi final day. Errani in three.
Ana Ivanovic vs Angelique Kerber
Ivanovic is on the way up and is playing some super tennis right now. I really like the way she is playing and I don't think it will be long before she is competing for majors again. Kerber is having a good season results wise but her form is very up and down. Her match with Kuznetsova was such a huge win for her I think it could be the turning point in her season. How she won it I'll never know but she did and I'm hoping that's the point we'll look back at in a few months as the moment she turned her form around. She would relish a shot at Sharapova again tomorrow and I don't think Ivanovic will stand in the way of that. Kerber in two.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
This one will go the distance. They've met four times and the recurring theme of this rivalry is final set deciders. Tsonga has the better of their record winning three times including a few weeks ago in Monte Carlo. I like Wawrinka a lot this week. He has been playing some super tennis and the way he dismantled Dimitrov in the final two sets yesterday was impressive. Wawrinka is a man who can disrupt the top five and with Federer gone he would certainly fancy his chances of making a final here. I think Wawrinka goes into this as the favourite and he is starting to show he can cope with the added pressure. Wawrinka in three.
Andy Murray vs Tomas Berdych
This one is going to be short and sweet in my opinion. Murray has serious problems on this surface and although he got away with it against Mayer and Simon, he will be in trouble against Berdych. Murray's movement isn't up to scratch on this clay. He struggles with sliding and is off balance hitting shots. The biggest problem he faces is he is far to defensive. You cannot win clay court matches against top players by constantly slicing the ball and looping it into the court. You have to hit the ball, you need top spin and depth. When you play Simon and Mayer on clay, if you aren't the aggressor you need to look at how you're playing the game. Berdych has been super this week and although clay might not be his favoured surface the altitude is helping him this week. He will employ the same tactics he did when he faced Murray at the US Open. He will attack the second serve and step inside the baseline to hit ground strokes to hurt Murray. All their meetings on clay have been comfortable and this will too. Berdych in two.
Madrid Masters 1000 Quarter Finals
It's quarter final time in Madrid and we have eight thrilling matches to enjoy in Friday's action. We've been treated to some incredible tennis so far and although the big four haven't been firing on all cylinders, the supporting cast are certainly doing their bit to entertain the lively crowd. We're going to preview the first four matches and see who we think will be around on semi final day.
Rafael Nadal vs David Ferrer.
These two have had a long but one sided rivalry and on this surface, it's pretty simple to guess who will win this one. Not since 2004, their very first meeting, has Ferrer got the better of Nadal on clay. Since then they've met fourteen times and Rafa has won them all. In fact it's been five years since Ferrer won a set on clay against Rafa and when they met at the French Open last year he won just five games. Nadal is simply incredible on this surface with so few ever able to challenge him. Ferrer won an epic encounter with Tommy Haas today but Nadal is a beast he cannot tame. Rafa Nadal in two.
Serena Williams vs Anabel Medina Garrigues.
This one should be relatively straight forward for Serena given the huge power advantage she has over the Spaniard. Medina-Garrigues is no doubt a better clay court player than Serena but the problem she faces is trying to match Serena's groundstrokes and protecting her own serve. It's tough to break Serena so holding your own serve is crucial. Putting her under early pressure is key for Garrigues but I just don't see her having success. Serena in two.
Maria Sharapova vs Kaia Kanepi.
This one has potential to be an upset but if Maria is on form then it should be one she comes through. Kanepi has missed a lot of action this year and that worries me here. Sharapova has an aura about her that wins her a lot of matches but I don't think she is as unbeatable as she seems especially on clay. Her second serve is very poor and if she is under pressure her first serve goes too. Kanepi will try to expose that but I don't think she has it in her to successfully attack the Russian. I do think Sharapova is vulnerable on clay because of her movement and serve and somebody like but she should remain in the tournament for at least a day longer. Maria in two.
Kei Nishikori vs Pablo Andujar.
This match isn't hard to call. Nishikori is starting to show what he is made of and after beating Federer he isn't going to throw that away by losing to Andujar. The Spaniard is no pushover though. He knows his way around a clay court and can provide trouble. Like all the Spaniards he won't hand you a win, you have to go and win it. That will suit Nishikori, who likes to play an aggressive game. He handled the occasion very well against Roger today and I think he could be about to break the top ten. Winning tomorrow will be another step towards the top. Nishikori in two.
Rafael Nadal vs David Ferrer.
These two have had a long but one sided rivalry and on this surface, it's pretty simple to guess who will win this one. Not since 2004, their very first meeting, has Ferrer got the better of Nadal on clay. Since then they've met fourteen times and Rafa has won them all. In fact it's been five years since Ferrer won a set on clay against Rafa and when they met at the French Open last year he won just five games. Nadal is simply incredible on this surface with so few ever able to challenge him. Ferrer won an epic encounter with Tommy Haas today but Nadal is a beast he cannot tame. Rafa Nadal in two.
Serena Williams vs Anabel Medina Garrigues.
This one should be relatively straight forward for Serena given the huge power advantage she has over the Spaniard. Medina-Garrigues is no doubt a better clay court player than Serena but the problem she faces is trying to match Serena's groundstrokes and protecting her own serve. It's tough to break Serena so holding your own serve is crucial. Putting her under early pressure is key for Garrigues but I just don't see her having success. Serena in two.
Maria Sharapova vs Kaia Kanepi.
This one has potential to be an upset but if Maria is on form then it should be one she comes through. Kanepi has missed a lot of action this year and that worries me here. Sharapova has an aura about her that wins her a lot of matches but I don't think she is as unbeatable as she seems especially on clay. Her second serve is very poor and if she is under pressure her first serve goes too. Kanepi will try to expose that but I don't think she has it in her to successfully attack the Russian. I do think Sharapova is vulnerable on clay because of her movement and serve and somebody like but she should remain in the tournament for at least a day longer. Maria in two.
Kei Nishikori vs Pablo Andujar.
This match isn't hard to call. Nishikori is starting to show what he is made of and after beating Federer he isn't going to throw that away by losing to Andujar. The Spaniard is no pushover though. He knows his way around a clay court and can provide trouble. Like all the Spaniards he won't hand you a win, you have to go and win it. That will suit Nishikori, who likes to play an aggressive game. He handled the occasion very well against Roger today and I think he could be about to break the top ten. Winning tomorrow will be another step towards the top. Nishikori in two.
Thursday 9 May 2013
Madrid Masters: Three to Watch
There are three stand out games in Madrid today and all three could go either way. We're going to have a quick look at those games and see who we think will make it through.
Tommy Haas vs David Ferrer
This is a match I am really looking forward to. Ferrer is such a good clay court player but hasn't been at his best in recent weeks. He doesn't seem to have the confidence he usually does. On the other hand Tommy Haas is in great form. He's consistent and getting some very impressive wins. Nine times out of ten I would pick Ferrer to win this one in straight sets but this is the perfect time for Haas to meet Ferrer on clay. Haas won the title in Munich last week while Ferrer was mauled in the final of Oeiras. It usually takes something special to beat Ferrer on clay and Haas is something special. I certainly wouldn't want to miss this one. I'm going to go for the upset and say Haas to win a memorable match. Tommy Haas in three.
Andy Murray vs Gilles Simon
This one could be another very good match. Murray has a huge dominance in their head to head having won the last ten but Simon is playing some very good tennis right now while Murray isn't. He was pushed hard by Florian Mayer in his first match and looked very sluggish. A lot of commentators were commenting on how good Murray's slice backhand was. Well that's all well and good but you don't win on clay slicing the ball. If you're not the aggressor playing Mayer on clay then you really need to look at how you're playing. If Murray plays passively throughout the clay court campaign then he better be prepared for some beatings. Wawrinka exposed that game when he curshed Murray in Monte Carlo and I could see something similar happening against Berdych if he did beat Simon. If Simon plays aggressively he could win it but he often falls into a passive game himself against Murray. It will be interesting to watch and should provide good entertaining rallies. Andy Murray in three.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov
This one should be one of the best matches of the tournament. Dimitrov beat Djokovic in the last round prompting the premature predictions of him breaking the top ten this year and winning multiple majors. I am a huge fan of Dimitrov and always have been but winning one match against Djokovic doesn't change the mental and physical problems he has. This is still the man that suffered cramp after two hours of playing tennis in Monte Carlo. It's also the man who double faulted four times when serving for the set against Murray and done the same thing a week later against Djokovic. Wawrinka was in a similar position a few years back. He was being tipped for greatness but never had the consistency. This year seems to be a lot different. He is hitting the ball as well as anyone and he's doing it week in week out. I think he is in a far better position at the moment than Dimitrov to crack the top ten and compete in the latter stages of the majors. Dimitrov is one for the future and he should someday reach the top but this match will bring him back down to earth. Stanislas Wawrinka in two.
Tommy Haas vs David Ferrer
This is a match I am really looking forward to. Ferrer is such a good clay court player but hasn't been at his best in recent weeks. He doesn't seem to have the confidence he usually does. On the other hand Tommy Haas is in great form. He's consistent and getting some very impressive wins. Nine times out of ten I would pick Ferrer to win this one in straight sets but this is the perfect time for Haas to meet Ferrer on clay. Haas won the title in Munich last week while Ferrer was mauled in the final of Oeiras. It usually takes something special to beat Ferrer on clay and Haas is something special. I certainly wouldn't want to miss this one. I'm going to go for the upset and say Haas to win a memorable match. Tommy Haas in three.
Andy Murray vs Gilles Simon
This one could be another very good match. Murray has a huge dominance in their head to head having won the last ten but Simon is playing some very good tennis right now while Murray isn't. He was pushed hard by Florian Mayer in his first match and looked very sluggish. A lot of commentators were commenting on how good Murray's slice backhand was. Well that's all well and good but you don't win on clay slicing the ball. If you're not the aggressor playing Mayer on clay then you really need to look at how you're playing. If Murray plays passively throughout the clay court campaign then he better be prepared for some beatings. Wawrinka exposed that game when he curshed Murray in Monte Carlo and I could see something similar happening against Berdych if he did beat Simon. If Simon plays aggressively he could win it but he often falls into a passive game himself against Murray. It will be interesting to watch and should provide good entertaining rallies. Andy Murray in three.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov
This one should be one of the best matches of the tournament. Dimitrov beat Djokovic in the last round prompting the premature predictions of him breaking the top ten this year and winning multiple majors. I am a huge fan of Dimitrov and always have been but winning one match against Djokovic doesn't change the mental and physical problems he has. This is still the man that suffered cramp after two hours of playing tennis in Monte Carlo. It's also the man who double faulted four times when serving for the set against Murray and done the same thing a week later against Djokovic. Wawrinka was in a similar position a few years back. He was being tipped for greatness but never had the consistency. This year seems to be a lot different. He is hitting the ball as well as anyone and he's doing it week in week out. I think he is in a far better position at the moment than Dimitrov to crack the top ten and compete in the latter stages of the majors. Dimitrov is one for the future and he should someday reach the top but this match will bring him back down to earth. Stanislas Wawrinka in two.
Madrid Masters 1000: Thursday
Action is underway in Madrid today but there are still a number of games left to go and we're here to have a look at some of them and see who can expect a quarter final spot.
Rafa Nadal and Mikhail Youzhny are up next in the men's in what I think will be a very one sided match. Nadal may not have been at his brilliant best against Paire but it's not easy find your rhythm in your first match here. The altitude changes the way the ball flies through the air and with a game under his belt I think Rafa will be much better today. Youzhny beat Almagro yesterday which was no great surprise because he has never lost to the Spaniard. This one will be a different story. Rafa in two.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco do battle later today in what has the potential to be an upset. Verdasco has got some surprising wins this week but I don't see his run continuing. Tsonga had a very good win over Robin Haase last night and I think he will get a very good win here. Verdasco has the capability to win this one if he is on form but I just don't see him bringing consistency to the court again today. Tsonga in three.
Roger Federer faces a tricky match against Kei Nishikori today. Federer might be the world number two but his lack of matches worries me. Nishikori is playing very well this season and he will fancy his chances today. Federer looked good against Stepanek but there were times he seemed to struggle and that worries me today. I think he will be in good stead for the French Open but he is vulnerable this week. It's hard to go for Nishikori to win so I'll say Federer to win but I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see Nishikori cause a shock.
Daniela Hantuchova faces Kaia Kanepi in what should be a real battle. These two have both had very good wins this week and will be confident. I like Hantuchova but I think she's going to struggle today. She has a 3-1 record against the Estonian but her three wins were more than four years ago. Kanepi won their last meeting 6-3 6-1 and I think she will get the job done today. Kanepi in three.
Sara Errani takes on Varvaro Lepchenko in an intriguing battle later today. Lepchenko made an impact at Roland Garros last year and certainly knows her way around a clay court but she faces the ultimate warrior today in Errani. The Italian is one of the best clay court players on the tour but Lepchenko has beaten her on clay only a few weeks ago, in straight sets. Errani is someone I think could make a final this week and despite her record against Lepchenko I think she will get a straight sets win of her own today. Errani in two.
Ekaterina Makarova got a surprise win over an out of sorts Azarenka yesterday and faces Marion Bartoli today. Two players having average seasons and in desperate need of something to kick start their year. Bartoli is a great fighter but I think she'll meet her match in Makarova. I like Ekaterina to get through this one in a tough encounter. Makarova in three.
Rafa Nadal and Mikhail Youzhny are up next in the men's in what I think will be a very one sided match. Nadal may not have been at his brilliant best against Paire but it's not easy find your rhythm in your first match here. The altitude changes the way the ball flies through the air and with a game under his belt I think Rafa will be much better today. Youzhny beat Almagro yesterday which was no great surprise because he has never lost to the Spaniard. This one will be a different story. Rafa in two.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco do battle later today in what has the potential to be an upset. Verdasco has got some surprising wins this week but I don't see his run continuing. Tsonga had a very good win over Robin Haase last night and I think he will get a very good win here. Verdasco has the capability to win this one if he is on form but I just don't see him bringing consistency to the court again today. Tsonga in three.
Roger Federer faces a tricky match against Kei Nishikori today. Federer might be the world number two but his lack of matches worries me. Nishikori is playing very well this season and he will fancy his chances today. Federer looked good against Stepanek but there were times he seemed to struggle and that worries me today. I think he will be in good stead for the French Open but he is vulnerable this week. It's hard to go for Nishikori to win so I'll say Federer to win but I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see Nishikori cause a shock.
Daniela Hantuchova faces Kaia Kanepi in what should be a real battle. These two have both had very good wins this week and will be confident. I like Hantuchova but I think she's going to struggle today. She has a 3-1 record against the Estonian but her three wins were more than four years ago. Kanepi won their last meeting 6-3 6-1 and I think she will get the job done today. Kanepi in three.
Sara Errani takes on Varvaro Lepchenko in an intriguing battle later today. Lepchenko made an impact at Roland Garros last year and certainly knows her way around a clay court but she faces the ultimate warrior today in Errani. The Italian is one of the best clay court players on the tour but Lepchenko has beaten her on clay only a few weeks ago, in straight sets. Errani is someone I think could make a final this week and despite her record against Lepchenko I think she will get a straight sets win of her own today. Errani in two.
Ekaterina Makarova got a surprise win over an out of sorts Azarenka yesterday and faces Marion Bartoli today. Two players having average seasons and in desperate need of something to kick start their year. Bartoli is a great fighter but I think she'll meet her match in Makarova. I like Ekaterina to get through this one in a tough encounter. Makarova in three.
Wednesday 8 May 2013
Madrid Masters 1000: Wednesday Preview
The Madrid Masters 1000 is underway and we've seen some thrilling tennis in the first few days. This event has been seen as yet another chapter of the Rafa-Novak rivalry but Grigor Dimitrov put paid to that when he beat Djokovic yesterday. Rafa gets his campaign underway tomorrow. So far the main contenders for the women's draw have made safe passage through but it's only a matter of time before we see some real upsets. So let's have a look at some of tomorrow's matches.
Rafa Nadal vs Benoit Paire.
These two met for the first time a few weeks ago and Rafa brushed the Frenchman aside. With Djokovic gone I think Nadal will see himself as unstoppable this week. Paire won't provide him with any trouble and Rafa should win it very comfortably. Rafa in two sets.
Kei Nishikori vs. Viktor Troicki.
This one could be tricky. Nishikori is without doubt the better player but he can throw in some poor days. Troicki looked like someone who could be a regular top fifteen player but he's fallen from that status now. I don't see him getting the better of Nishikori tomorrow. The talent gap between these two should be apparent from the start. Nishikori in two.
Tomas Berdych vs Jerzy Janowicz.
This one is going to be massive. Two players who play aggressively battling it out at altitude. I expect this to be filled with winners and aces but it should be the Czech star who comes through. Berdych is someone who can break into the top four if he can continue his form over the last eight months. Janowicz needs to find a consistency in his game and until then he will struggle to get deep into tournaments. Take Berdych to come through in two tight sets.
Tommy Haas vs. Tommy Robredo.
This is the match I am most looking forward to tomorrow. Haas has been turning back the clock since returning to the tour last year and is hitting top form again. He beat Djokovic en route to the Miami semi finals and won the title in Munich last week before destroying a quality player today in Andreas Seppi. Robredo himself is coming back to his best after injury. He has also shown he still has what it takes to compete on the tour. Expect some top quality hitting and long rallies in this one. Like their first meeting 13 years ago, we're going for Haas in three.
Stan Wawrinka vs. Santiago Giraldo.
I'm eager to see how this game goes also. It might seem straight forward for Wawrinka given his form but we've never quite seen the Swiss star show the consistency associated with top ten players. Stan has the potential to break the top ten and possibly the top five if he can continue his form. He's arguably been one of the best players this year and picked up an impressive title in Oeiras last week beating Ferrer on clay. I'd expect him to win this in two and prove he is not going away lightly anymore. Stan in two.
In other men's games we expect Juan Monaco to beat Kevin Anderson, Nicolas Almagro to get his first win over Mikhail Youzhny and comfortable wins for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer.
Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Kaia Kanepi.
This one should be a close match with the pair having split their four meetings so far. The home crowd and clay courts are in favour of Suarez-Navarro. Kanepi is a strong player but I think she will be in trouble tomorrow. They met last week in the semi finals of Oeiras and the Spaniard won in straight sets. We expect the same tomorrow. Navarro in two.
Ana Ivanovic vs. Laura Robson.
Many people might be expecting an upset here after Robson beat Radwanska in the last round but I don't see it. Robson is not the player she's been made out to be. There are far too many faults in her game and she isn't doing enough to eradicate them. Here serve is very poor and aggressive players like Ivanovic will take advantage of that. She has talent and that will get her wins but she needs consistency to ever make it to the top. Ivanovic is returning to her best form and she should win this in two.
Victoria Azarenka vs. Ekaterina Makarova.
Makarova can get wins over top players but I don't see it happening tomorrow. Azarenka is the best player in women's tennis and despite not having a lot of match practice on clay recently I think she will have a good week here to begin her preparations for the French Open. She had a great win over an in form Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the opening round and that will have her sharp to win this one in two.
Angelique Kerber vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova.
This one is the game of the day. Two players I like a lot going head to head. Kuznetsova is a former French Open champion and is one of the best clay court players on the tour. The problem she faces tomorrow is Kerber has the ability to hit through her. I think Kerber has potential to go deep at Roland Garros and proving herself on clay beforehand is crucial to that. In what should be a very tight game, I expect Kerber to sneak through.
In other games we expect wins for Maria Kirilenko, Julia Goerges and Petra Kvitova.
Rafa Nadal vs Benoit Paire.
These two met for the first time a few weeks ago and Rafa brushed the Frenchman aside. With Djokovic gone I think Nadal will see himself as unstoppable this week. Paire won't provide him with any trouble and Rafa should win it very comfortably. Rafa in two sets.
Kei Nishikori vs. Viktor Troicki.
This one could be tricky. Nishikori is without doubt the better player but he can throw in some poor days. Troicki looked like someone who could be a regular top fifteen player but he's fallen from that status now. I don't see him getting the better of Nishikori tomorrow. The talent gap between these two should be apparent from the start. Nishikori in two.
Tomas Berdych vs Jerzy Janowicz.
This one is going to be massive. Two players who play aggressively battling it out at altitude. I expect this to be filled with winners and aces but it should be the Czech star who comes through. Berdych is someone who can break into the top four if he can continue his form over the last eight months. Janowicz needs to find a consistency in his game and until then he will struggle to get deep into tournaments. Take Berdych to come through in two tight sets.
Tommy Haas vs. Tommy Robredo.
This is the match I am most looking forward to tomorrow. Haas has been turning back the clock since returning to the tour last year and is hitting top form again. He beat Djokovic en route to the Miami semi finals and won the title in Munich last week before destroying a quality player today in Andreas Seppi. Robredo himself is coming back to his best after injury. He has also shown he still has what it takes to compete on the tour. Expect some top quality hitting and long rallies in this one. Like their first meeting 13 years ago, we're going for Haas in three.
Stan Wawrinka vs. Santiago Giraldo.
I'm eager to see how this game goes also. It might seem straight forward for Wawrinka given his form but we've never quite seen the Swiss star show the consistency associated with top ten players. Stan has the potential to break the top ten and possibly the top five if he can continue his form. He's arguably been one of the best players this year and picked up an impressive title in Oeiras last week beating Ferrer on clay. I'd expect him to win this in two and prove he is not going away lightly anymore. Stan in two.
In other men's games we expect Juan Monaco to beat Kevin Anderson, Nicolas Almagro to get his first win over Mikhail Youzhny and comfortable wins for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer.
Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Kaia Kanepi.
This one should be a close match with the pair having split their four meetings so far. The home crowd and clay courts are in favour of Suarez-Navarro. Kanepi is a strong player but I think she will be in trouble tomorrow. They met last week in the semi finals of Oeiras and the Spaniard won in straight sets. We expect the same tomorrow. Navarro in two.
Ana Ivanovic vs. Laura Robson.
Many people might be expecting an upset here after Robson beat Radwanska in the last round but I don't see it. Robson is not the player she's been made out to be. There are far too many faults in her game and she isn't doing enough to eradicate them. Here serve is very poor and aggressive players like Ivanovic will take advantage of that. She has talent and that will get her wins but she needs consistency to ever make it to the top. Ivanovic is returning to her best form and she should win this in two.
Victoria Azarenka vs. Ekaterina Makarova.
Makarova can get wins over top players but I don't see it happening tomorrow. Azarenka is the best player in women's tennis and despite not having a lot of match practice on clay recently I think she will have a good week here to begin her preparations for the French Open. She had a great win over an in form Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the opening round and that will have her sharp to win this one in two.
Angelique Kerber vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova.
This one is the game of the day. Two players I like a lot going head to head. Kuznetsova is a former French Open champion and is one of the best clay court players on the tour. The problem she faces tomorrow is Kerber has the ability to hit through her. I think Kerber has potential to go deep at Roland Garros and proving herself on clay beforehand is crucial to that. In what should be a very tight game, I expect Kerber to sneak through.
In other games we expect wins for Maria Kirilenko, Julia Goerges and Petra Kvitova.
Wednesday 1 May 2013
ATP Munich
The BMW Open is one of the finest ATP 250 events around with a number of the top players entering looking for some form ahead of the back to back Masters 1000 events in Madrid and Rome. So let's have a look at who the main contenders for the title are.
The top seed for this event is Serbia's Janko Tipsarevic but as I said in the last few week, I don't think he is playing well enough to win. He is too inconsistent and with his style of play you can't afford inconsistency. I wouldn't be surprised to see him beaten before the weekend here. Second seed Marin Cilic is already eliminated after suffering defeat against fellow Croat Ivan Dodig. Dodig is a potential danger in the quarter finals but again I don't see enough consistency in his game to be crowned winner on Sunday.
Leading the German challenge this week are two serious contenders in Tommy Haas and defending champion Phillip Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber has been far from his best this season but playing in front of his home fans at a venue where he has won twice before makes him a threat. Haas has once again defied his age to prove last season was no fluke as he continues to climb the rankings. Having made it to a final and a Masters 1000 semi final already this year he is one worth watching this week.
An early obstacle for Haas is Latvian Ernests Gulbis who has been in fantastic form since he quit smoking and drinking and decided to fully commit to tennis. With a title already to his name this season he will see a real chance to bag a second one this week. Aleksandr Dolgopolov has been poor all season but is capable of turning it around in the blink of an eye and if he does then he could be worth watching.
Although there were 28 names in the field, I do believe I have mentioned the winner already. It's not easy to look ahead and pick one player but I think the winner of this title will be the winner of the Ernests Gulbis-Tommy Haas match. They face off tomorrow and I see the winner of that meeting Kohlschreiber in the final. Gulbis is at 4/1 currently, while Haas is at 6/1. Kohlschreiber is at 2/1. If I had to pick one I'd go for Haas.
The top seed for this event is Serbia's Janko Tipsarevic but as I said in the last few week, I don't think he is playing well enough to win. He is too inconsistent and with his style of play you can't afford inconsistency. I wouldn't be surprised to see him beaten before the weekend here. Second seed Marin Cilic is already eliminated after suffering defeat against fellow Croat Ivan Dodig. Dodig is a potential danger in the quarter finals but again I don't see enough consistency in his game to be crowned winner on Sunday.
Leading the German challenge this week are two serious contenders in Tommy Haas and defending champion Phillip Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber has been far from his best this season but playing in front of his home fans at a venue where he has won twice before makes him a threat. Haas has once again defied his age to prove last season was no fluke as he continues to climb the rankings. Having made it to a final and a Masters 1000 semi final already this year he is one worth watching this week.
An early obstacle for Haas is Latvian Ernests Gulbis who has been in fantastic form since he quit smoking and drinking and decided to fully commit to tennis. With a title already to his name this season he will see a real chance to bag a second one this week. Aleksandr Dolgopolov has been poor all season but is capable of turning it around in the blink of an eye and if he does then he could be worth watching.
Although there were 28 names in the field, I do believe I have mentioned the winner already. It's not easy to look ahead and pick one player but I think the winner of this title will be the winner of the Ernests Gulbis-Tommy Haas match. They face off tomorrow and I see the winner of that meeting Kohlschreiber in the final. Gulbis is at 4/1 currently, while Haas is at 6/1. Kohlschreiber is at 2/1. If I had to pick one I'd go for Haas.
Sunday 28 April 2013
Portugal Open
The Portugal Open takes place in Oeiras, formerly Estoril, this week with a joint event containing both a men's draw and a women's draw. It's one of only four tournaments (Roland Garros, Rome, Madrid) in the European clay court swing that has both men and women in the same week. So let's have a look at who the players to watch in both draws are this week.
In the men's event the top seed and favourite is David Ferrer after the Spaniard accepted a wildcard into the event following a disappointing loss in the opening round of Barcelona last week.
Ferrer lost his opening match on clay last year before going on to show his qualities in the remaining events of the clay court season. I expect him to do something similar this year. Although we do have a strong field this week, I don't see anyone here who is at the level Ferrer is especially on a clay court. However, if he is as sluggish as he was last week then he will be found out by someone early on. There are some tricky players in his section (Benoit Paire, Edouard and Roger-Vasselin) and he will need to be playing at a high level.
For me the second seed here has been one of the best players this year. Stanislas Wawrinka has had some memorable matches this year and I think he will break the top ten this year, if he carries on in this form. He almost beat Djokovic in Melbourne, came close to beating Federer in Indian Wells and almost won the title in Buenos Aires. He's always been good on clay, reaching the Rome final a few years back, and has had some great wins this year on the dirt, including straight sets wins over Nicolas Almagro and Andy Murray. I see him being a real threat this week.
There are three other players I see capable of winning this week. Fabio Fognini has been super this year so far and now that he is on his favoured surface he can express himself more and get some big wins. Since losing in the opening round of Sao Paolo he has been as good as anyone on the tour. The only players to beat him in his last five tournaments are Djokovic, twice, and Ferrer, three times. He could be dangerous this week. Two players on a collision course this week are Andreas Seppi and Tommy Robredo. Seppi has been disappointing in his last few matches but he is too good a player for that to continue. I did fancy him as a contender before I saw the draw but with Robredo in there, I'm not sure anymore.
Robredo has been rolling back the years this season with some sublime tennis. He reached the semi final in Buenos Aires before winning the title in Casablanca. In Barcelona this week, he beat Tomas Berdych before losing a very close match with Milos Raonic in the quarter final. He is playing some great tennis and now that he is fit again he can sustain his level throughout a full week. It will be interesting to see how he copes with back to back weeks.
I think Ferrer will get the win this week, simply because he needs to. With Federer struggling and Murray very vulnerable on clay, Ferrer could see himself as the third best on the surface this year. Depending on the draw at the French Open, Ferrer could find himself in the final. With Djokovic and Nadal streets ahead it's unlikely he can win the French but making a final would at least give him a chance. To do that he needs to hit form soon and winning this week would be the perfect way to prepare for some big weeks ahead. Watch our for Wawrinka to be his biggest challenge.
The women's draw is much more difficult to call. The top seed is Marion Bartoli but I'm not sure she has the form or consistency to win it. In fact, I think Shuai Peng could beat her in the opening round. Kiki Bertens is her second round opponent and she has some good clay court qualities which make her dangerous. Dominika Cibulkova is the second seed and a player who could go all the way here. She has an aggressive style but if she is off form she can be beaten. Laura Robson is there but I don't think she is good enough to go deep. Kaia Kanepi is the defending champion and she could be one to watch this week if she can rediscover the form she has last year.
The first round clash between Francesca Schiavone and Lourdes Dominguez Lino is a mouth watering one. Both players met in the final of Marrakech today where Schiavone won easily. The winner of that one could be a threat this week. Elena Vesnina and Julia Goerges are also big threats this week. The two players I'm looking at are Svetlana Kuznetsova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Kuznetsova is a great clay court player and former world number two. She is back to full fitness now and will compete with the best at the majors. I like her chances of going deep this week and at least reaching the semi final.
Payluchenkova is now being coached by Martina Hingis who is aiming to bring consistency to the young Russian's game. After winning the title in Monterrey, confidence will be high and this week provides a chance to see what changes Hingis has made to her game. I said at the start of the year that this girl was one to watch this year and I feel her results have justified that statement. If she can stay consistent this week then she will win the title. If not, then I think Kuznetsova could be one to sneak in and take it.
In the men's event the top seed and favourite is David Ferrer after the Spaniard accepted a wildcard into the event following a disappointing loss in the opening round of Barcelona last week.
Ferrer lost his opening match on clay last year before going on to show his qualities in the remaining events of the clay court season. I expect him to do something similar this year. Although we do have a strong field this week, I don't see anyone here who is at the level Ferrer is especially on a clay court. However, if he is as sluggish as he was last week then he will be found out by someone early on. There are some tricky players in his section (Benoit Paire, Edouard and Roger-Vasselin) and he will need to be playing at a high level.
For me the second seed here has been one of the best players this year. Stanislas Wawrinka has had some memorable matches this year and I think he will break the top ten this year, if he carries on in this form. He almost beat Djokovic in Melbourne, came close to beating Federer in Indian Wells and almost won the title in Buenos Aires. He's always been good on clay, reaching the Rome final a few years back, and has had some great wins this year on the dirt, including straight sets wins over Nicolas Almagro and Andy Murray. I see him being a real threat this week.
There are three other players I see capable of winning this week. Fabio Fognini has been super this year so far and now that he is on his favoured surface he can express himself more and get some big wins. Since losing in the opening round of Sao Paolo he has been as good as anyone on the tour. The only players to beat him in his last five tournaments are Djokovic, twice, and Ferrer, three times. He could be dangerous this week. Two players on a collision course this week are Andreas Seppi and Tommy Robredo. Seppi has been disappointing in his last few matches but he is too good a player for that to continue. I did fancy him as a contender before I saw the draw but with Robredo in there, I'm not sure anymore.
Robredo has been rolling back the years this season with some sublime tennis. He reached the semi final in Buenos Aires before winning the title in Casablanca. In Barcelona this week, he beat Tomas Berdych before losing a very close match with Milos Raonic in the quarter final. He is playing some great tennis and now that he is fit again he can sustain his level throughout a full week. It will be interesting to see how he copes with back to back weeks.
I think Ferrer will get the win this week, simply because he needs to. With Federer struggling and Murray very vulnerable on clay, Ferrer could see himself as the third best on the surface this year. Depending on the draw at the French Open, Ferrer could find himself in the final. With Djokovic and Nadal streets ahead it's unlikely he can win the French but making a final would at least give him a chance. To do that he needs to hit form soon and winning this week would be the perfect way to prepare for some big weeks ahead. Watch our for Wawrinka to be his biggest challenge.
The women's draw is much more difficult to call. The top seed is Marion Bartoli but I'm not sure she has the form or consistency to win it. In fact, I think Shuai Peng could beat her in the opening round. Kiki Bertens is her second round opponent and she has some good clay court qualities which make her dangerous. Dominika Cibulkova is the second seed and a player who could go all the way here. She has an aggressive style but if she is off form she can be beaten. Laura Robson is there but I don't think she is good enough to go deep. Kaia Kanepi is the defending champion and she could be one to watch this week if she can rediscover the form she has last year.
The first round clash between Francesca Schiavone and Lourdes Dominguez Lino is a mouth watering one. Both players met in the final of Marrakech today where Schiavone won easily. The winner of that one could be a threat this week. Elena Vesnina and Julia Goerges are also big threats this week. The two players I'm looking at are Svetlana Kuznetsova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Kuznetsova is a great clay court player and former world number two. She is back to full fitness now and will compete with the best at the majors. I like her chances of going deep this week and at least reaching the semi final.
Payluchenkova is now being coached by Martina Hingis who is aiming to bring consistency to the young Russian's game. After winning the title in Monterrey, confidence will be high and this week provides a chance to see what changes Hingis has made to her game. I said at the start of the year that this girl was one to watch this year and I feel her results have justified that statement. If she can stay consistent this week then she will win the title. If not, then I think Kuznetsova could be one to sneak in and take it.
Tuesday 23 April 2013
ATP Barcelona & Budapest
This week the ATP Tour moves to Barcelona for an ATP 500 event and Budapest for an ATP 250 event. There is a number of high quality players in both fields but we're going to narrow it down to see who the dangers are.
Starting in Budapest and although we don't have any of the top ten playing. Janko Tipsarevic is the top seed but he's been off form lately so I don't think he will contend here. Players like Horacio Zeballos and Santiago Giraldo are early opponents for him and I wouldn't be surprised if either of those men took him out. Mikhail Youzhny is fourth seed but I'm not convinced he has the consistency to go all the way.
I've been very impressed with Gilles Simon this season. He might not be winning titles every week but he has played some great tennis. I like his chances of at least a semi final appearance this week. He is going for his fourth title here and has only lost once so he has to be considered a strong favourite. Jarkko Nieminen is a second round opponent for him and that could go either way. Nieminen has also been impressive this year and if he could shock Simon then he could have a very good week.
There are two other players I'm really liking this week. David Goffin is a young Belgian who burst on to the scene last year during the clay court season. He is a bit inconsistent but I think he is going to be a strong player in the coming months. He has a tough draw but he could be a potential dark horse this week. My favourite this week is Andreas Seppi. The Italian has impressed me a lot since last Summer despite not always having strong results. I think he could be the one to watch this week.
In Barcelona we should have a very interesting week. Rafa Nadal has been in scintillating form since his return from injury in which time he won two clay court titles and the Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells. Last week he lost for the first time in eight years at Monte Carlo against Novak Djokovic. After watching that game I don't think Nadal is in a bad place with his game. The courts were wet and that just allowed Djokovic to take a further step up the court and he could play very aggressively from there. I don't see anybody else in the game who can possibly play that kind of style against Nadal and be successful and for that reason Nadal will win this week.
David Ferrer is a very talented clay court player and has a good record here which includes four final losses to Nadal. I see him possibly being in the final but I don't see him beating Rafa, especially after the 6-0 6-2 loss he suffered a few weeks ago against Nadal. Milos Raonic lost a thrilling match to Ferrer last week and I think he could have another good week this year. Tomas Berdych has been brilliant this season and he could be a possible contender but again I'm not sure he could beat Rafa on clay. Grigor Dimitrov impressed in Monte Carlo last week and will be looking to build on that this week but it remains to be seen if he has the consistency.
So this week will see two events on the clay and I have given a number of contenders for both events. In Barcelona I see Nadal at 2/5 as a certain winner and I think Ferrer e/w at 5/1 is the best bet outside of backing Rafa. In Budapest, I''m torn between two players. Gilles Simon has the history in Romania to suggest he can win another title but Seppi has impressed me a lot and is very capable of beating Simon. My heart says Seppi at 13/2 but I am going to follow my head and go Simon at 5/1.
Starting in Budapest and although we don't have any of the top ten playing. Janko Tipsarevic is the top seed but he's been off form lately so I don't think he will contend here. Players like Horacio Zeballos and Santiago Giraldo are early opponents for him and I wouldn't be surprised if either of those men took him out. Mikhail Youzhny is fourth seed but I'm not convinced he has the consistency to go all the way.
I've been very impressed with Gilles Simon this season. He might not be winning titles every week but he has played some great tennis. I like his chances of at least a semi final appearance this week. He is going for his fourth title here and has only lost once so he has to be considered a strong favourite. Jarkko Nieminen is a second round opponent for him and that could go either way. Nieminen has also been impressive this year and if he could shock Simon then he could have a very good week.
There are two other players I'm really liking this week. David Goffin is a young Belgian who burst on to the scene last year during the clay court season. He is a bit inconsistent but I think he is going to be a strong player in the coming months. He has a tough draw but he could be a potential dark horse this week. My favourite this week is Andreas Seppi. The Italian has impressed me a lot since last Summer despite not always having strong results. I think he could be the one to watch this week.
In Barcelona we should have a very interesting week. Rafa Nadal has been in scintillating form since his return from injury in which time he won two clay court titles and the Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells. Last week he lost for the first time in eight years at Monte Carlo against Novak Djokovic. After watching that game I don't think Nadal is in a bad place with his game. The courts were wet and that just allowed Djokovic to take a further step up the court and he could play very aggressively from there. I don't see anybody else in the game who can possibly play that kind of style against Nadal and be successful and for that reason Nadal will win this week.
David Ferrer is a very talented clay court player and has a good record here which includes four final losses to Nadal. I see him possibly being in the final but I don't see him beating Rafa, especially after the 6-0 6-2 loss he suffered a few weeks ago against Nadal. Milos Raonic lost a thrilling match to Ferrer last week and I think he could have another good week this year. Tomas Berdych has been brilliant this season and he could be a possible contender but again I'm not sure he could beat Rafa on clay. Grigor Dimitrov impressed in Monte Carlo last week and will be looking to build on that this week but it remains to be seen if he has the consistency.
So this week will see two events on the clay and I have given a number of contenders for both events. In Barcelona I see Nadal at 2/5 as a certain winner and I think Ferrer e/w at 5/1 is the best bet outside of backing Rafa. In Budapest, I''m torn between two players. Gilles Simon has the history in Romania to suggest he can win another title but Seppi has impressed me a lot and is very capable of beating Simon. My heart says Seppi at 13/2 but I am going to follow my head and go Simon at 5/1.
Sunday 10 March 2013
ATP Indian Wells
The first Masters 1000 event of the year takes place this week with all the top players coming together for one of the biggest events of the year. Known as the "fifth major" because of the large size of the draw, this event has got the same atmosphere as the major tournaments. This event is very important for players to gather momentum and a win here is not easy to come by so we can expect some high quality tennis this week. This week is also the first time since Wimbledon that we have Rafa Nadal competing with all the top players in the world. So with a lot at stake this week let's look at who the contenders are.
The obvious choice this week is Novak Djokovic. The man is simply incredible. After a lengthy break following his Australian Open triumph, he returned to action in Dubai last week. For any other player it would have taken a week or two before he reached top gear but Djokovic was simply unstoppable all week. He destroyed the field and picked up another title to remain unbeaten this year. This week he is in Andy Murray's half of the draw which will suit him fine given his record against the Scot in big events. Djokovic went through a tough time after the death of his grandfather but he has recovered admirably and has asserted his clear dominance over Murray and Federer in all meetings since the Summer. It's very hard to look past the Serb this week.
Andy Murray is making his first appearance since losing yet another Aussie Open final. He was outclassed by Djokovic in Melbourne and I see a smilar pattern occuring in the coming months. I don't think Murray has got the game to beat Djokovic consistently and I don't think he's ever proven that he can. He hasn't made the changes in his game that are so clearly necessary. He needs to be more aggressive, plain and simple. It's fine showing aggression in the early rounds against weaker opponents and in the early stages of big matches but when it comes down to the stage in a match when you need to win big points he returns to his defensive game and that won't get it done against the top players. These changes need to come soon or players like Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro will quickly catch up with him. It's hard to know what to expect from Murray this week but I'd be surprised if he reached the semi finals.
Roger Federer has been out of sorts lately but I wouldn't be too worried about that simply because this isn't the time of year Roger needs to peak for. At his age he will realise he can't be at his best all year round and the best period of the season for him is from Wimbledon through to the US Open. Those two majors are still very achievable for Roger and he will want to be at his best for those events. I don't expect Roger to be at his best this week but he will want to win a potential meeting with Rafa Nadal in the quarter finals to halt the Spaniards progress on his return from injury.
What about Rafa Nadal? This week is his first hard court event since this period last year so what can we expect to see from him. This is pretty much a free week for him because there is no pressure and no expectation on him but knowing the Spaniard he will be expecting to win the tournament. The main thing this week is his knee holds up. Once he is allowed free movement and can get through the week with no problems then this will have been another positive week for Nadal. A lot of questions have been asked about Rafa's return and could he return to his best. Well last week proved all the doubters wrong. He was brilliant all week but his win over Ferrer in the final was vintage Rafa. He is hitting his backhand better than he ever was and he demolished probably one of the top three clay courters on the tour. Most people won't expect much from Nadal this week but I think he could have a semi final appearance in him this week.
Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are two players to watch this week. Both have started the year strongly and I expect them both to become a permanent figure at the very top of men's tennis. Berdych has looked very strong in the last few weeks and I think he could have some big wins in the coming months. I expect to see him play very well again this week and I think he will be in the final. Del Potro has got a tricky draw being placed on Djokovic's side but he has shown signs of an ability to go stroke for stroke with the Serb in their last few meetings. The next step for him is to start winning the big points and get a win over him. It could be just one win that gives him the confidence to achieve big things. I think he will beat Murray this week before falling to Djokovic.
Other players who might find the conditions suitable this week include 17th seed Milos Raonic. The Canadian possesses a massive serve that could see him make headway towards the latter stages this week. Similar to John Isner last year he could be one to cause some big upsets along the way. Richard Gasquet has started the year strong but now needs to make an impact on a big tournament like this. Ernests Gulbis has finally started committing to the sport and that could be huge for the tour. He has dedicated himself to stop smoking and drinking and is giving the game a real shot now. He picked up a title last week and could be a surprise contendner this week. Stanislas Wawrinka made massive strides forward since the start of this year and he could be one to make the top ten in the coming months. If he stays fit and continues improving his game then he will be a permanent figure at the top of the sport.
So much can happen over the course of a Masters 1000 event and upsets occur daily. Players like Nadal and Federer are always a threat but I don't see either at a stage where they could win this event. Murray hasn't enough played and hasn't enough to beat Djokovic to win here either. Players such as Del Potro and Berdych are the big threats to Novak this week. They are constantly improving and I expect a strong week from both. But at the end of the week it will be Djokovic lifting yet another title.
The obvious choice this week is Novak Djokovic. The man is simply incredible. After a lengthy break following his Australian Open triumph, he returned to action in Dubai last week. For any other player it would have taken a week or two before he reached top gear but Djokovic was simply unstoppable all week. He destroyed the field and picked up another title to remain unbeaten this year. This week he is in Andy Murray's half of the draw which will suit him fine given his record against the Scot in big events. Djokovic went through a tough time after the death of his grandfather but he has recovered admirably and has asserted his clear dominance over Murray and Federer in all meetings since the Summer. It's very hard to look past the Serb this week.
Andy Murray is making his first appearance since losing yet another Aussie Open final. He was outclassed by Djokovic in Melbourne and I see a smilar pattern occuring in the coming months. I don't think Murray has got the game to beat Djokovic consistently and I don't think he's ever proven that he can. He hasn't made the changes in his game that are so clearly necessary. He needs to be more aggressive, plain and simple. It's fine showing aggression in the early rounds against weaker opponents and in the early stages of big matches but when it comes down to the stage in a match when you need to win big points he returns to his defensive game and that won't get it done against the top players. These changes need to come soon or players like Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro will quickly catch up with him. It's hard to know what to expect from Murray this week but I'd be surprised if he reached the semi finals.
Roger Federer has been out of sorts lately but I wouldn't be too worried about that simply because this isn't the time of year Roger needs to peak for. At his age he will realise he can't be at his best all year round and the best period of the season for him is from Wimbledon through to the US Open. Those two majors are still very achievable for Roger and he will want to be at his best for those events. I don't expect Roger to be at his best this week but he will want to win a potential meeting with Rafa Nadal in the quarter finals to halt the Spaniards progress on his return from injury.
What about Rafa Nadal? This week is his first hard court event since this period last year so what can we expect to see from him. This is pretty much a free week for him because there is no pressure and no expectation on him but knowing the Spaniard he will be expecting to win the tournament. The main thing this week is his knee holds up. Once he is allowed free movement and can get through the week with no problems then this will have been another positive week for Nadal. A lot of questions have been asked about Rafa's return and could he return to his best. Well last week proved all the doubters wrong. He was brilliant all week but his win over Ferrer in the final was vintage Rafa. He is hitting his backhand better than he ever was and he demolished probably one of the top three clay courters on the tour. Most people won't expect much from Nadal this week but I think he could have a semi final appearance in him this week.
Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are two players to watch this week. Both have started the year strongly and I expect them both to become a permanent figure at the very top of men's tennis. Berdych has looked very strong in the last few weeks and I think he could have some big wins in the coming months. I expect to see him play very well again this week and I think he will be in the final. Del Potro has got a tricky draw being placed on Djokovic's side but he has shown signs of an ability to go stroke for stroke with the Serb in their last few meetings. The next step for him is to start winning the big points and get a win over him. It could be just one win that gives him the confidence to achieve big things. I think he will beat Murray this week before falling to Djokovic.
Other players who might find the conditions suitable this week include 17th seed Milos Raonic. The Canadian possesses a massive serve that could see him make headway towards the latter stages this week. Similar to John Isner last year he could be one to cause some big upsets along the way. Richard Gasquet has started the year strong but now needs to make an impact on a big tournament like this. Ernests Gulbis has finally started committing to the sport and that could be huge for the tour. He has dedicated himself to stop smoking and drinking and is giving the game a real shot now. He picked up a title last week and could be a surprise contendner this week. Stanislas Wawrinka made massive strides forward since the start of this year and he could be one to make the top ten in the coming months. If he stays fit and continues improving his game then he will be a permanent figure at the top of the sport.
So much can happen over the course of a Masters 1000 event and upsets occur daily. Players like Nadal and Federer are always a threat but I don't see either at a stage where they could win this event. Murray hasn't enough played and hasn't enough to beat Djokovic to win here either. Players such as Del Potro and Berdych are the big threats to Novak this week. They are constantly improving and I expect a strong week from both. But at the end of the week it will be Djokovic lifting yet another title.
Monday 25 February 2013
ATP Tour Delray Beach, Acapulco & Dubai
This week the ATP Tour has three stops with two ATP 500 events in Dubai and Acapulco and an ATP 250 event in Delray Beach. The worlds top players are out in force with most of the top twenty all in action. Below I'll quickly look at who the contenders are and give my outright tournament tips, starting with the star studded event in Dubai.
Roger Federer is a five time champion at this event and is the defending champion after beating Andy Murray in last years final. Federer was sluggish today when he came through in three against Malek Jaziri. I don't like the way Federer is playing right now and I don't think he'll be lifting the title on Sunday. Novak Djokovic returns to action for the first time since winning the Australian Open at the event he won three times in a row from 09-11. The Serb might be short of match practice but he is still the man to beat. Juan Martin Del Potro is the man in form and will be loving a chance to play the top players. I think the Argentine is Djokovic's biggest threat this week and might just be able to upset the Serb. Tomas Berdych seems to be on the cusp of the top four but needs to start getting consistent wins over them soon. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played well last week to win in Marseille but is so hit and miss it's hard to know what to expect this week. Outside of the top four seeds I don't see any other winner.
The second ATP 500 event is in Acapulco and is going to be a massive indicator as to where Rafa Nadal's game is at. He enters as the second seed behind David Ferrer, having dropped to fifth in the rankings. Ferrer is the favourite for the event in my eyes because he is in such great form and is probably the best natural clay courter behind Nadal. If Nadal was fully fit it would be impossible to see Ferrer beating him but this is his big chance. Nadal has played well in his first two events back but this is the big test. If he beats Ferrer in the final then I am 100% confident he will be back at the top of the game very very soon. If not, then we know it will take longer before we see him competing for majors. The only other players I'm watching this week are Nicolas Almagro and Stanislas Wawrinka. Almagro is a natural clay court player and can't be ruled out against anyone. Wawrinka is in great form this year and if he keeps this up then he will be a top ten player very soon. For me, the title is between the top two Spaniards.
Finally Delray Beach hosts an ATP 250 event this week. Last week's winner in Memphis, Kei Nishikori is back at the scene of his first ever ATP title this week full of confidence. Nishikori is another player who can blow hot and cold and that's why I'm struggling to back him this week. Top seed John Isner has underperformed for the last few weeks as he returns from injury but I do think he will hit form soon. This week provides a great chance for him with a favourable draw making him my favourite to make the final from the top half. Watch young American Jack Sock this week to see if he can follow up his great win over Milos Raonic last week. Tommy Haas is one of the favourite for this event, having won it back in 2006 but he has lost in the first round on his last four visits. I don't see that happening again and I fancy him to go a long way. Sam Querrey and Aleksandr Dolgopolov have been unpredictable this year but could make headlines this week if they play to their potential, especially the Ukrainian.
As far as picking the winners go I've picked an outright winner for all three events as well as an each way bet in two events. In Dubai I've gone for Novak Djokovic at 8/11. He is the best in the world and if he is even at 75% he could be untouchable this week. His only threat is Del Potro who I considered picking but Novak seems to have an edge over Delpo. I've also gone for Tomas Berdych each way at 12/1. He will love these conditions and I think he'll beat Tsonga and Federer along the way.
In Acapulco, I've gone for Nadal at 4/6. It's a risk backing him against Ferrer at this early stage of his comeback but I've never once backed against him on clay and I can't start now. He is the king of the red dirt and I think he'll really announce himself back on the tour this week.
In Delray Beach, I've chosen John Isner at 6/1. I fancy his big serve to get him through this week on these fast hard courts and win his first title of the year. This week could kick start his season. I've also chosen Tommy Haas each way at 8/1. The German veteran may not be at his consistent best yet but I have been very impressed with him in the last few weeks. Respiratory problems forced him out of Memphis but he was outstanding in San Jose the week before. He has made a lot of finals in the last year where he seems to fall just short which makes him a good each way bet. I see no reason he can't at least make a final here.
Roger Federer is a five time champion at this event and is the defending champion after beating Andy Murray in last years final. Federer was sluggish today when he came through in three against Malek Jaziri. I don't like the way Federer is playing right now and I don't think he'll be lifting the title on Sunday. Novak Djokovic returns to action for the first time since winning the Australian Open at the event he won three times in a row from 09-11. The Serb might be short of match practice but he is still the man to beat. Juan Martin Del Potro is the man in form and will be loving a chance to play the top players. I think the Argentine is Djokovic's biggest threat this week and might just be able to upset the Serb. Tomas Berdych seems to be on the cusp of the top four but needs to start getting consistent wins over them soon. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played well last week to win in Marseille but is so hit and miss it's hard to know what to expect this week. Outside of the top four seeds I don't see any other winner.
The second ATP 500 event is in Acapulco and is going to be a massive indicator as to where Rafa Nadal's game is at. He enters as the second seed behind David Ferrer, having dropped to fifth in the rankings. Ferrer is the favourite for the event in my eyes because he is in such great form and is probably the best natural clay courter behind Nadal. If Nadal was fully fit it would be impossible to see Ferrer beating him but this is his big chance. Nadal has played well in his first two events back but this is the big test. If he beats Ferrer in the final then I am 100% confident he will be back at the top of the game very very soon. If not, then we know it will take longer before we see him competing for majors. The only other players I'm watching this week are Nicolas Almagro and Stanislas Wawrinka. Almagro is a natural clay court player and can't be ruled out against anyone. Wawrinka is in great form this year and if he keeps this up then he will be a top ten player very soon. For me, the title is between the top two Spaniards.
Finally Delray Beach hosts an ATP 250 event this week. Last week's winner in Memphis, Kei Nishikori is back at the scene of his first ever ATP title this week full of confidence. Nishikori is another player who can blow hot and cold and that's why I'm struggling to back him this week. Top seed John Isner has underperformed for the last few weeks as he returns from injury but I do think he will hit form soon. This week provides a great chance for him with a favourable draw making him my favourite to make the final from the top half. Watch young American Jack Sock this week to see if he can follow up his great win over Milos Raonic last week. Tommy Haas is one of the favourite for this event, having won it back in 2006 but he has lost in the first round on his last four visits. I don't see that happening again and I fancy him to go a long way. Sam Querrey and Aleksandr Dolgopolov have been unpredictable this year but could make headlines this week if they play to their potential, especially the Ukrainian.
As far as picking the winners go I've picked an outright winner for all three events as well as an each way bet in two events. In Dubai I've gone for Novak Djokovic at 8/11. He is the best in the world and if he is even at 75% he could be untouchable this week. His only threat is Del Potro who I considered picking but Novak seems to have an edge over Delpo. I've also gone for Tomas Berdych each way at 12/1. He will love these conditions and I think he'll beat Tsonga and Federer along the way.
In Acapulco, I've gone for Nadal at 4/6. It's a risk backing him against Ferrer at this early stage of his comeback but I've never once backed against him on clay and I can't start now. He is the king of the red dirt and I think he'll really announce himself back on the tour this week.
In Delray Beach, I've chosen John Isner at 6/1. I fancy his big serve to get him through this week on these fast hard courts and win his first title of the year. This week could kick start his season. I've also chosen Tommy Haas each way at 8/1. The German veteran may not be at his consistent best yet but I have been very impressed with him in the last few weeks. Respiratory problems forced him out of Memphis but he was outstanding in San Jose the week before. He has made a lot of finals in the last year where he seems to fall just short which makes him a good each way bet. I see no reason he can't at least make a final here.
Tuesday 19 February 2013
ATP Buenos Aires
The third stop of the Latin-American clay court swing is in Buenos Aires this week. The first two legs of the four event swing were dominated by the return of Rafa Nadal as he reached the final in Vina Del Mar and then won the Brasilian Open. This week Nadal takes a break but we do still have a very strong field in Argentina this week. The Buenos Aires LTC is known as the Cathedral of Argentinian tennis but the last four titles have all gone to Spanish players. Not since Juan Monaco and David Nalbandian lifted the title in 2007 and 2008 have the home favourites had joy here.
David Nalbandian offers the best hope of Argentinian success this week but his fitness must be questioned after only returning to the tour last week. His form was incredible in Sao Paulo though, as he reached the final. Two weeks in a row is a big ask for an ageing Nalbandian but you wouldn't rule him out. Federico Delbonis has been playing well on the challenger tour sine the start of the year and doesn't look out of place since returning to the main tour. Whether he has the ability to go deep here is another thing.
Nicolas Almagro is back this year after reaching the final last year and winning the event in 2011. He lost to Nalbandian last week which was a disappointing result for him. Given his start to the year it seemed very unlikely he would lose early on his return to clay. I don't doubt his clay court talent though and I would expect a better showing this week. Fellow Spaniard Albert Ramos is one to watch this week. He had a great win over Flavio Cipolla yesterday and I saw a lot of him on clay last year, where I was very impressed. A potential dark horse in the draw, nobody will want to play him.
Tommy Robredo is a talented clay courter and has got a very nice draw so I would watch out for him to win some matches this week. Pablo Andujar and Albert Montanes face each other in the opening round and the winner, likely to be Andujar, will be relishing an early shot at Almagro after his loss last week. Stan Wawrinka has been through the wars this year already. He lost a five hour match with Djokovic in Melbourne and lost a seven hour doubles match at the Davis Cup. He has played sensational tennis so far this year and I think if he can keep that level up then he will be top ten and challenging at majors on a regular basis. A win this week certainly puts him on the map.
For me there is only one man to watch this week. David Ferrer is the fourth best clay court player in the world, behind only Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. He would be one of the most decorated clay court players of all time if he hadn't lost 14 times to Nadal on clay, including six finals. There isn't anybody in the field this week who can compete with him on the dirt but he could be caught out by a lack of games recently. He hasn't played since Australia but that shouldn't matter once he finds his rhythm. The second half of the draw is very open so I wouldn't even risk an each way bet. Ferrer is 10/11 this week and that is unmissable in my opinion.
David Nalbandian offers the best hope of Argentinian success this week but his fitness must be questioned after only returning to the tour last week. His form was incredible in Sao Paulo though, as he reached the final. Two weeks in a row is a big ask for an ageing Nalbandian but you wouldn't rule him out. Federico Delbonis has been playing well on the challenger tour sine the start of the year and doesn't look out of place since returning to the main tour. Whether he has the ability to go deep here is another thing.
Nicolas Almagro is back this year after reaching the final last year and winning the event in 2011. He lost to Nalbandian last week which was a disappointing result for him. Given his start to the year it seemed very unlikely he would lose early on his return to clay. I don't doubt his clay court talent though and I would expect a better showing this week. Fellow Spaniard Albert Ramos is one to watch this week. He had a great win over Flavio Cipolla yesterday and I saw a lot of him on clay last year, where I was very impressed. A potential dark horse in the draw, nobody will want to play him.
Tommy Robredo is a talented clay courter and has got a very nice draw so I would watch out for him to win some matches this week. Pablo Andujar and Albert Montanes face each other in the opening round and the winner, likely to be Andujar, will be relishing an early shot at Almagro after his loss last week. Stan Wawrinka has been through the wars this year already. He lost a five hour match with Djokovic in Melbourne and lost a seven hour doubles match at the Davis Cup. He has played sensational tennis so far this year and I think if he can keep that level up then he will be top ten and challenging at majors on a regular basis. A win this week certainly puts him on the map.
For me there is only one man to watch this week. David Ferrer is the fourth best clay court player in the world, behind only Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. He would be one of the most decorated clay court players of all time if he hadn't lost 14 times to Nadal on clay, including six finals. There isn't anybody in the field this week who can compete with him on the dirt but he could be caught out by a lack of games recently. He hasn't played since Australia but that shouldn't matter once he finds his rhythm. The second half of the draw is very open so I wouldn't even risk an each way bet. Ferrer is 10/11 this week and that is unmissable in my opinion.
Monday 18 February 2013
U.S National Indoor Championships, Memphis
Memphis hosts the U.S National Indoor Tennis Championships this week as the American hard court swing enters it's second week. Last week, the San Jose Open was played for the final time with Milos Raonic completing a three-peat and finishing with an undefeated event record of 12-0. He beat veteran Tommy Haas in the final and both men, who met for the first time on Sunday, look set to meet in the quarter finals here in Memphis. The home crowd will be hoping that one of nine American players can keep the title on home soil. Jurgen Melzer returns to defend his crown after winning last year despite a broken toe.
Melzer hasn't had much success since that win and is unseeded this year. He faces a tricky tie against Igor Sisjling in the opening round and it's hard to see him going very far this week. We should have a new champion this week and the top seed for the event is Croatian Marin Cilic. Cilic is on a six game winning streak after winning the title in Zagreb two weeks ago and will fancy his chances of winning a second title of the season here this week.
Another man looking to win a second title is Canadian Milos Raonic. Raonic was very impressive winning in San Jose and has always enjoyed this part of the year. The indoor courts provide him with a huge advantage because of his massive serve and ground strokes. Raonic has made steady improvements each year he's been on the tour and this year looks like the time for him to make his move into the top ten. To do so he will need to produce his best tennis on the big occasions, majors and masters 1000 events. He's been beaten in the final here for the last two years and will be hoping to go one better this week.
Tommy Haas is the second favourite for this event in my opinion. He played fantastic last week and against anyone else in the final he would have won. His serve was great all week and until the final he hadn't been broken. Raonic is a player who will always cause problems for the German but if he could get over the Canadian this week then I think he could win the title. He has always played well here and has won the titles three times (1999, 2006, 2007). No matter what happens it's clear that Haas won't fall away this season and will be looking to improve on his great 2012 season.
American John Isner lost out to Haas last week but I did like the way he was playing until then. Isner missed out on the Aussie Open with a knee injury and I don't think he's fully fit right now. These events will get him in shape for the upcoming Masters 1000 events. Once he starts firing like we know he can then I think he'll be back in the top ten again. I think another semi final appearance is on the cards this week but can he beat an in form Raonic? Or gain revenge on Haas? I don't think so. Not just yet.
2010 champion Sam Querrey would love to be back playing the way he was when he won this title. Injuries have played their part in stopping the Americans progress but there were signs last year, mainly at Wimbledon, that he could return to his best. He hasn't been good this year and I really do worry he might be set for a slide down the rankings. A good run this week might be ease my worries. Kei Nishikori's career has stalled somewhat in the past year. He looked set for a charge at the top ten but it hasn't materialised. I hope he can get back to his best because he is a really exciting prospect on the tour.
Not surprisingly the bookies make Milos Raonic the favourite this week at 11/4. They place Cilic as second favourite at 5/1 which is good value because he is in the easier half of the draw and is playing well. Nishikori is too unreliable to confidently back him but 7/1 is great value as he is also in the easier half. If you fancy Haas to get past Raonic then 10/1 is a very generous price. Aleksandr Dolgopolov hasn't been at his best but he can't be ruled out at 12/1, and neither can Fernando Verdasco at 18/1. Cilic might be a safer bet but indoors it's hard to look past Raonic. I fancy him to finally get his hands on this trophy and at 11/4 there is plenty of value in him.
Sunday 17 February 2013
Open 13 Marseille
The big events are coming thick and fast on the ATP Tour and this week the players stop in Marseille for the Open 13. Last week in Rotterdam we had a very strong field headed by Roger Federer and this week we have an equally strong line up. Czech star Tomas Berdych leads the field as the top seed but it's the second seed, and defending champion, Juan Martin Del Potro who starts as the favourite after winning the Rotterdam title today. Could Berdych disrupt the Argentine? Will one of the French contingent delight the home crowd? Or will Del Potro assert his dominance again? With the quality of field this week, just about anything is possible.
At the start of the year I said Berdych seemed ready to launch an assault on the top four this season and everything I've seen from him so far has suggested he can. In the Australian Open he played exceptionally well up until a tactical disaster against Djokovic. He had the winning formula but refused to stick at it. That's criminal against someone like Novak but he can learn from his mistakes. This week is a great chance for him to show he means business this year. He doesn't have an easy draw. Players like Julien Benneteau and Jerzy Janowicz are dangerous indoors but Berdych should be beating players like that. If he doesn't at least reach the semi final I would be very disappointed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looked to be turning a corner this year after hiring Roger Rasheed as a coach but last week he lost in his first match to Igor Sisjling. I know the Dutch player is dangerous on an indoor court but someone like Tsonga shouldn't be losing to him. That was a poor performance and as much as he tried he was found wanting when he needed to produce his best and that to me is a lack of confidence in his own game. That's a worrying sign for the remainder of the year. The only thing in his favour is he had an extra week to work with Rasheed and if he can have a good week here then he will be more confident in himself and more confident in what his coach is trying to do with him.
The French crowd will have plenty to cheer about this week with so many of their players on form. The most impressive of the French contingent is Richard Gasquet. He has two titles this year and is playing some of the best tennis of his career. He is playing a consistent brand of tennis and when that is combined with the deadly shots he can produce especially off his backhand. The next step for him is big performances in ATP 500 events and Masters 1000 tournaments. But for now, these ATP 250 events are perfect for gaining confidence and building momentum.
Gilles Simon had a strong week reaching the semi finals in Rotterdam but he seemed to be struggling physically at the end of his semi final. That leaves me questioning his fitness this week so it's hard to know what to expect from him. Julien Benneteau played the best tennis I've seen from him in a long time to reach the final in Rotterdam. He beat Roger Federer comfortably before losing to Del Potro. There was nothing wrong with how he played against the Argentine but Delpo was just incredible all week and bordering on unstoppable. Michael Llodra will be tough to beat indoor and Gael Monfils is always tricky. Janko Tipsarevic is a danger in the field but I don't see enough consistency from him to suggest he could win this week.
Finally, Del Potro. He was simply breathtaking in Rotterdam. He played aggressively and served incredibly well. He is the defending champion and I really think we are going to see him reach the top of the game again this year. He is capable of competing in all the remaining majors because he is a threat on clay and grass and of course hard courts. This week could be crucial in his season. If he produces the same tennis as last week then he will be near impossible to beat. Indoors I don't see anybody beating him this week. I would go as far to say he is the best indoor player in the game right now and he will prove it this week.
Berdych and Tsonga will provide a massive challenge for Delpo this week and are at great prices for the title. Berdych goes off at 4/1 and Tsonga at 9/2. Both good value prices but I'm avoiding both. Someone like Gasquet is value at 12/1 given his recent form but it's Del Potro who represents the best value this week. He was 4/1 last week and this week is at 11/4. That's unmissable in my opinion and that's why I'm backing him this week.
At the start of the year I said Berdych seemed ready to launch an assault on the top four this season and everything I've seen from him so far has suggested he can. In the Australian Open he played exceptionally well up until a tactical disaster against Djokovic. He had the winning formula but refused to stick at it. That's criminal against someone like Novak but he can learn from his mistakes. This week is a great chance for him to show he means business this year. He doesn't have an easy draw. Players like Julien Benneteau and Jerzy Janowicz are dangerous indoors but Berdych should be beating players like that. If he doesn't at least reach the semi final I would be very disappointed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looked to be turning a corner this year after hiring Roger Rasheed as a coach but last week he lost in his first match to Igor Sisjling. I know the Dutch player is dangerous on an indoor court but someone like Tsonga shouldn't be losing to him. That was a poor performance and as much as he tried he was found wanting when he needed to produce his best and that to me is a lack of confidence in his own game. That's a worrying sign for the remainder of the year. The only thing in his favour is he had an extra week to work with Rasheed and if he can have a good week here then he will be more confident in himself and more confident in what his coach is trying to do with him.
The French crowd will have plenty to cheer about this week with so many of their players on form. The most impressive of the French contingent is Richard Gasquet. He has two titles this year and is playing some of the best tennis of his career. He is playing a consistent brand of tennis and when that is combined with the deadly shots he can produce especially off his backhand. The next step for him is big performances in ATP 500 events and Masters 1000 tournaments. But for now, these ATP 250 events are perfect for gaining confidence and building momentum.
Gilles Simon had a strong week reaching the semi finals in Rotterdam but he seemed to be struggling physically at the end of his semi final. That leaves me questioning his fitness this week so it's hard to know what to expect from him. Julien Benneteau played the best tennis I've seen from him in a long time to reach the final in Rotterdam. He beat Roger Federer comfortably before losing to Del Potro. There was nothing wrong with how he played against the Argentine but Delpo was just incredible all week and bordering on unstoppable. Michael Llodra will be tough to beat indoor and Gael Monfils is always tricky. Janko Tipsarevic is a danger in the field but I don't see enough consistency from him to suggest he could win this week.
Finally, Del Potro. He was simply breathtaking in Rotterdam. He played aggressively and served incredibly well. He is the defending champion and I really think we are going to see him reach the top of the game again this year. He is capable of competing in all the remaining majors because he is a threat on clay and grass and of course hard courts. This week could be crucial in his season. If he produces the same tennis as last week then he will be near impossible to beat. Indoors I don't see anybody beating him this week. I would go as far to say he is the best indoor player in the game right now and he will prove it this week.
Berdych and Tsonga will provide a massive challenge for Delpo this week and are at great prices for the title. Berdych goes off at 4/1 and Tsonga at 9/2. Both good value prices but I'm avoiding both. Someone like Gasquet is value at 12/1 given his recent form but it's Del Potro who represents the best value this week. He was 4/1 last week and this week is at 11/4. That's unmissable in my opinion and that's why I'm backing him this week.
Monday 11 February 2013
ATP San Jose
The SAP Open is a tournament with a rich tradition with previous winners such as Ashe, Laver, Connors, Sampras and Agassi. There are some big hitters in this years draw and plenty of American interest. Two time defending champion Milos Raonic has a perfect record at this event and is the favourite to regain his title. He will have a tough job defending his crown however, with stars such as John Isner and Tommy Haas in the field, along with young American Ryan Harrison.
Raonic is the biggest challenge for everyone in the field with his monstrous serve so tough to handle indoors. His ground strokes are also beneficial on this surface and it will take a big effort for anyone to take the crown off the Canadian. American Sam Querrey has got similar weapons at his disposal but not at the same standard. Querrey has got the ability to beat anybody indoors, especially in America but I don't think he has the variety in his game to beat someone like Raonic.
Ryan Harrison hits a flat enough ball to cause players problems this week. I think he could prosper with home advantage bu tan early clash with Raonic will be a step too far in my opinion. Fernando Verdasco has always played well here, only losing once in two appearances and that loss was in the final to Raonic. He could go deep here this week but I'd question his mentality at times and that's why I find it hard to back him. In his side of the draw he could face big serving Ivo Karlovic who will be a threat on this surface.
Fourth seed Tommy Haas is a former champion here and is someone who could be dangerous if he can hit his stride early. I expect Haas to take a while to find his rhythm at his age and so I wasn't expecting much in the first few weeks of the season but it's time he put some results together now. This week is a great chance for him. Second seed John Isner will be hoping that Haas doesn't reach a semi final meeting that they could contest. Isner is another player who will enjoy the conditions this week and I would be surprised if he wasn't around at the weekend.
There are some very tempting prices this week and if you can pick the right player you will be making a healthy profit. John Isner at 4/1 is a price I was very tempted to back, bearing in mind his serve can win him games even if he isn't hitting the ball well. If Querrey got going then 7/1 for him would be very nice. Tommy Haas will be entertaining this week but I don't see him winning titles this week although he is a nice price of 8/1. Verdasco's record here makes 10/1 tempting but the obvious choice for me this week is Milos Raonic at 9/4. The Canadian has never lost here and always enjoys this part of the year.
Raonic is the biggest challenge for everyone in the field with his monstrous serve so tough to handle indoors. His ground strokes are also beneficial on this surface and it will take a big effort for anyone to take the crown off the Canadian. American Sam Querrey has got similar weapons at his disposal but not at the same standard. Querrey has got the ability to beat anybody indoors, especially in America but I don't think he has the variety in his game to beat someone like Raonic.
Ryan Harrison hits a flat enough ball to cause players problems this week. I think he could prosper with home advantage bu tan early clash with Raonic will be a step too far in my opinion. Fernando Verdasco has always played well here, only losing once in two appearances and that loss was in the final to Raonic. He could go deep here this week but I'd question his mentality at times and that's why I find it hard to back him. In his side of the draw he could face big serving Ivo Karlovic who will be a threat on this surface.
Fourth seed Tommy Haas is a former champion here and is someone who could be dangerous if he can hit his stride early. I expect Haas to take a while to find his rhythm at his age and so I wasn't expecting much in the first few weeks of the season but it's time he put some results together now. This week is a great chance for him. Second seed John Isner will be hoping that Haas doesn't reach a semi final meeting that they could contest. Isner is another player who will enjoy the conditions this week and I would be surprised if he wasn't around at the weekend.
There are some very tempting prices this week and if you can pick the right player you will be making a healthy profit. John Isner at 4/1 is a price I was very tempted to back, bearing in mind his serve can win him games even if he isn't hitting the ball well. If Querrey got going then 7/1 for him would be very nice. Tommy Haas will be entertaining this week but I don't see him winning titles this week although he is a nice price of 8/1. Verdasco's record here makes 10/1 tempting but the obvious choice for me this week is Milos Raonic at 9/4. The Canadian has never lost here and always enjoys this part of the year.
Brasil Open 2013
Sao Paolo hosts an ATP 250 event with some of the best clay court players the world has to offer on show this week. This is an event that traditionally has been won by Spaniards with six of the last eight winners being Spanish. Two time defending champion, Nicolas Almagro, will be looking to win his fourth title here but will face stiff competition from the likes of Juan Monaco and Rafa Nadal.
Nadal returned to the tour last week and reached the final in Vina Del Mar before losing to Horacio Zeballos. It was a strong week from Nadal and once he gets back match fit he will be back at the top of the game for sure. His tennis was exceptional last week. I was very impressed with how aggressive he was on his backhand but it was clear he was a bit ring rusty when it came to reading the serve coming at him. I think he will be better this week and it would be a big surprise if he wasn't playing at the weekend.
Monaco lost in the first round last week and that was a massive shock. This week he will be out to prove himself again as one of the best clay court players on the tour. I would expect him to be in a semi final but not before facing some tough clay courters in the early rounds. Almagro is definitely the second favourite for this title and it's easy to see why. He is a very strong player and has started the year tremendously. On clay he is a force to be reckoned with and I think he is going to be close to defending his title.
There are quite a few strong clay courters who have a chance to shine this week. Horacio Zeballos won his first tour title last week when he beat Nadal but I don't see him as being a constant threat. He played incredible but it's no coincidence he is 73 in the world. He just hit some incredible shots and managed to scrape out a good win but I would be shocked if he could repeat that here this week. Fabio Fognini has had a strong start to the year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him cause a few upsets. David Nalbandian returns to action this week and hopefully he is fit enough to sustain a challenge long enough to make a mark. He still has the game but whether he has the fitness is the question. Thomasz Bellucci is another capable of big results on clay but consistency is a major problem for the Brazilian.
7/1 for Nicolas Almagro is the best price this week considering his start to the year and his good performances here in the past. I like him as an each way bet but having seen Nadal last week you have to be impressed and as long as his knees hold up it's hard to look beyond him. At 5/11 he is at a good price to take the title.
Sunday 10 February 2013
ATP Rotterdam
This week we have one of my favourite tournaments on the tour, the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam. I like this event because it is one of the most competitive on the tour and it always contains some big upsets. Roger Federer is the defending champion and returns as top seed to defend his title. This event is played on an indoor hard court and traditionally has suited flat hitters and serve and volley players. Player such as Radek Stepanek and Michael Llodra have won this event in the past and Robin Soderling won it twice in 2010 and 2011 but hasn't played since.
Federer is the favourite this week but there will be question marks over his fitness after a back problem in Melbourne. I don't think he will be suffering this week though. He's too experienced to play with an injury in a smaller event at this stage of his career. Roger will be preparing for the Summer where he will hope to add at least one major title and these events will be all about tuning his game. He is a master on an indoor court and it takes something special to beat him on this surface.
Juan Martin Del Potro didn't live up to expectations at the Australian Open but I don't think that was entirealy down to poor play. Jeremy Chardy caught him on the day and played lights out tennis. Del Potro was actually playing great tennis up until that point and I genuinely believe he would have been in the final if he had got past Chardy. I think the big Argentine will have a very big season and this week could be the start of it. He is the second seed and at the very least I expect him to be in a semi final.
The form player this year has without doubt been Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has won two titles already this year, including a great win in Montpellier last week. As I've said numerous times the big difference with Gasquet this year is his mentality. He wants to be the best now and he is willing to work hard to get there. His coach deserves all the credit for the way he pushed him when he came on board and we are seeing the rewards of that hard work on the tour now. He could make a huge statement on the tour this week with a win.
Jerzy Janowicz has got the game to have a good week here. He hits relatively flat and hits very big. This court is a bit similar to the courts in Paris where he burst on to the scene last year. He potentially could be good this week but his mentality is still questionable. Gilles Simon has been very good this season and it was a shame injury disrupted his Aussie Open. He could be dangerous this week if he maintains his good form. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing much better this year. Hiring a coach was the best move for him and he could be in for a big week.
The field this week contains a few lower ranked players who will thrive on these courts and conditions. Michael Llodra has had great success here in the past and he will be dangerous for whoever he meets along the way this week. Marcos Baghdatis is another who will be tough to beat. Grigor Dimitrov and Bernard Tomic face off in round one and the winner will fancy there chances of going deep.
It's tough to pick a winner this week with so much talent. Federer is the favourite at around 6/5 but I'm reluctant to back him as he probably hasn't spent much time on court in the last few weeks. Tsonga is a great price at around 8/1 given his improvements in recent weeks but I don't know if he has a full week of good results in him yet. Gasquet is a very generous 20/1 in places and with him in such great form he might be the one to watch. My tip this week is with last years beaten finalist though. He has played exceptional since that loss to Federer and has since beaten Federer twice indoors in the same season, the only man to do so in over a decade. At 4/1 Del Potro is the man I see victorious next week.
Federer is the favourite this week but there will be question marks over his fitness after a back problem in Melbourne. I don't think he will be suffering this week though. He's too experienced to play with an injury in a smaller event at this stage of his career. Roger will be preparing for the Summer where he will hope to add at least one major title and these events will be all about tuning his game. He is a master on an indoor court and it takes something special to beat him on this surface.
Juan Martin Del Potro didn't live up to expectations at the Australian Open but I don't think that was entirealy down to poor play. Jeremy Chardy caught him on the day and played lights out tennis. Del Potro was actually playing great tennis up until that point and I genuinely believe he would have been in the final if he had got past Chardy. I think the big Argentine will have a very big season and this week could be the start of it. He is the second seed and at the very least I expect him to be in a semi final.
The form player this year has without doubt been Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has won two titles already this year, including a great win in Montpellier last week. As I've said numerous times the big difference with Gasquet this year is his mentality. He wants to be the best now and he is willing to work hard to get there. His coach deserves all the credit for the way he pushed him when he came on board and we are seeing the rewards of that hard work on the tour now. He could make a huge statement on the tour this week with a win.
Jerzy Janowicz has got the game to have a good week here. He hits relatively flat and hits very big. This court is a bit similar to the courts in Paris where he burst on to the scene last year. He potentially could be good this week but his mentality is still questionable. Gilles Simon has been very good this season and it was a shame injury disrupted his Aussie Open. He could be dangerous this week if he maintains his good form. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing much better this year. Hiring a coach was the best move for him and he could be in for a big week.
The field this week contains a few lower ranked players who will thrive on these courts and conditions. Michael Llodra has had great success here in the past and he will be dangerous for whoever he meets along the way this week. Marcos Baghdatis is another who will be tough to beat. Grigor Dimitrov and Bernard Tomic face off in round one and the winner will fancy there chances of going deep.
It's tough to pick a winner this week with so much talent. Federer is the favourite at around 6/5 but I'm reluctant to back him as he probably hasn't spent much time on court in the last few weeks. Tsonga is a great price at around 8/1 given his improvements in recent weeks but I don't know if he has a full week of good results in him yet. Gasquet is a very generous 20/1 in places and with him in such great form he might be the one to watch. My tip this week is with last years beaten finalist though. He has played exceptional since that loss to Federer and has since beaten Federer twice indoors in the same season, the only man to do so in over a decade. At 4/1 Del Potro is the man I see victorious next week.
Monday 4 February 2013
ATP Vina Del Mar
It's been seven long months but this week Rafael Nadal is finally returning to the ATP tour. The VTR Open in Chile sees the start of the golden swing as the ATP Tour has four weeks going through Latin America. This period of the tour is usually used by clay court specialists looking to gain some form or confidence. This year the golden swing has a more significant meaning, Rafael Nadal's comeback.
Playing his first event since Wimbledon last year, all eyes will be on the Spaniard to see where his game is at. The absence of arguably the greatest clay court player of all time has seen the sports best current rivalry left on hold. There is no question that Rafa and Novak Djokovic are the two best players in the world and until Nadal's injury, there was nobody else even coming close to these two. It looked like Novak lost some of his intensity during the last seven months, while Roger Federer got a new lease of life and became world number one again and won a major title. Andy Murray took full advantage of Nadal's absence to win his first Grand Slam. Before Wimbledon last year, Nadal and Djokovic contested four major finals in a row, Nadal himself was in eight of the previous nine finals, winning five. His return will raise the standard of tennis on the tour and I look forward to seeing Rafa and Novak going at it on the biggest stages again.
It's likely to be some time before he gets back to full fitness but I do think that he can easily win three titles in the next four weeks. He has committed to playing here and the Brasil Open and Acapulco, three ATP 250 clay court events. These events won't contain the big name players and I don't see him losing to anyone on clay. This week will be the toughest as he tries to find some rhythm in competitive action again. He has been training with Tommy Robredo in the last few weeks so I'm sure his game is in a solid place.
Second seed this week, Juan Monaco, is going to be the biggest threat this week. He is the defending champion and a very competent clay court player. He knows how to move around the dirt and has all the shots to compete against anyone on the clay. Beating Nadal in the final this week would be a dream for Monaco but can he upset the odds to win? Injury kept Tommy Robredo from the tour for a long time but he has come back strong and he is another who knows his way around a clay court. The 2011 winner will fancy his chances of a good week here to help get his ranking back to where it should be.
Jeremy Chardy reached the semi finals last year and has started the 2013 season very well. I don't think he could beat Nadal or Monaco on clay to win this event and I don't see him beating players like Robredo either. A player I like this week is Albert Ramos. The Spaniard had a great clay court campaign last year and will be a danger this week. He should run into Pablo Andujar in the quarter finals and that would be a great game. Andujar is equally as good on the red dirt and the winner of that clash would fancy themselves to beat Monaco in a semi final.
Other dangerous players this week include Argentinian Carlos Berlocq. He has got the game to be a threat this week but whether he has the big game temperament to win the title is another thing. Paolo Lorenzi and Albert Montanes are also capable of some big wins but I don't see enough consistency for either to win the event.
Jeremy Chardy goes off at 12/1 this week but I don't see any value in that and I don't see any in backing Ramos (33/1) or Berlocq at (50/1). Juan Monaco is at 4/1 and that might be a very good bet if you think Nadal won't win it out. Monaco should be in the final at least, providing he plays to his potential. The only bet for me this week is Rafa Nadal, going off at 4/7. You won't get odds like that for a tournament like this ever again and this is a must.
Playing his first event since Wimbledon last year, all eyes will be on the Spaniard to see where his game is at. The absence of arguably the greatest clay court player of all time has seen the sports best current rivalry left on hold. There is no question that Rafa and Novak Djokovic are the two best players in the world and until Nadal's injury, there was nobody else even coming close to these two. It looked like Novak lost some of his intensity during the last seven months, while Roger Federer got a new lease of life and became world number one again and won a major title. Andy Murray took full advantage of Nadal's absence to win his first Grand Slam. Before Wimbledon last year, Nadal and Djokovic contested four major finals in a row, Nadal himself was in eight of the previous nine finals, winning five. His return will raise the standard of tennis on the tour and I look forward to seeing Rafa and Novak going at it on the biggest stages again.
It's likely to be some time before he gets back to full fitness but I do think that he can easily win three titles in the next four weeks. He has committed to playing here and the Brasil Open and Acapulco, three ATP 250 clay court events. These events won't contain the big name players and I don't see him losing to anyone on clay. This week will be the toughest as he tries to find some rhythm in competitive action again. He has been training with Tommy Robredo in the last few weeks so I'm sure his game is in a solid place.
Second seed this week, Juan Monaco, is going to be the biggest threat this week. He is the defending champion and a very competent clay court player. He knows how to move around the dirt and has all the shots to compete against anyone on the clay. Beating Nadal in the final this week would be a dream for Monaco but can he upset the odds to win? Injury kept Tommy Robredo from the tour for a long time but he has come back strong and he is another who knows his way around a clay court. The 2011 winner will fancy his chances of a good week here to help get his ranking back to where it should be.
Jeremy Chardy reached the semi finals last year and has started the 2013 season very well. I don't think he could beat Nadal or Monaco on clay to win this event and I don't see him beating players like Robredo either. A player I like this week is Albert Ramos. The Spaniard had a great clay court campaign last year and will be a danger this week. He should run into Pablo Andujar in the quarter finals and that would be a great game. Andujar is equally as good on the red dirt and the winner of that clash would fancy themselves to beat Monaco in a semi final.
Other dangerous players this week include Argentinian Carlos Berlocq. He has got the game to be a threat this week but whether he has the big game temperament to win the title is another thing. Paolo Lorenzi and Albert Montanes are also capable of some big wins but I don't see enough consistency for either to win the event.
Jeremy Chardy goes off at 12/1 this week but I don't see any value in that and I don't see any in backing Ramos (33/1) or Berlocq at (50/1). Juan Monaco is at 4/1 and that might be a very good bet if you think Nadal won't win it out. Monaco should be in the final at least, providing he plays to his potential. The only bet for me this week is Rafa Nadal, going off at 4/7. You won't get odds like that for a tournament like this ever again and this is a must.
Sunday 3 February 2013
ATP Zagreb
This week Zagreb hosts the PBZ Zagreb indoors for just the eighth time and four former champions are returning this year, including the defending champion Mikhail Youzhny. Croatians have been very successful in front of their home crowd with last year being the first year a Croatian didn't contest the final. This year two time champion Marin Cilic and 2011 winner Ivan Dodig will carry the hopes of the Croatian fans.
Cilic is the top seed and favourite for the title and it's easy to see why. The indoor hard courts will play into his hands and his big game will take some stopping. The draw was kind to him and he shouldn't be troubled until meeting Marcos Baghdatis. That would be a fascinating clash but with home advantage I'd fancy Cilic to reach a semi final. Ivan Dodig has fallen away a bit for me. He produces some good tennis and gets big wins every now and again but as a professional tennis player you've got to have consistency. He hasn't really impressed in a while so I guess it would be time for him to make a deep run.
As defending champion Mikhail Youzhny has got to be considered. Even when you're not playing well if you return to a ground you're familiar with and have fond memories of you can often find your game. Youzhny will enjoy the indoor courts and he will fancy his chances. Last years beaten finalist Lucas Lacko is also back this year. He had a good week here in 2012 and he will be hoping to go one better and he has got a decent draw.
Two men I'm watching closely this week are Grigor Dimitrov and Andreas Seppi. Seppi had a career best season in 2012 and is up to 18 in the world. He is in good form and I think he will be in the final here in Zagreb. Dimitrov is a player I said at the start of the year would have a big season. He started well, reaching a final in Brisbane, but he was disappointed in the Aussie Open losing in the first round. I have faith in him to bounce back here though and make a good run.
There is great value in this event if you find the right player. Cilic is the favourite at 11/4 and Youzhny can be got at 8/1. Baghdatis is at 10s and Melzer 12s but the value lies outside of these in my opinion. Dimitrov at 8/1 is a very tempting bet but I'm going to go with Andreas Seppi at 9/2. For me he is a certain to reach the final with none of the main contenders in his half of the draw. He's beaten Cilic already this year so he knows he can do it (despite losing to him today) and I think he'll win this event.
Cilic is the top seed and favourite for the title and it's easy to see why. The indoor hard courts will play into his hands and his big game will take some stopping. The draw was kind to him and he shouldn't be troubled until meeting Marcos Baghdatis. That would be a fascinating clash but with home advantage I'd fancy Cilic to reach a semi final. Ivan Dodig has fallen away a bit for me. He produces some good tennis and gets big wins every now and again but as a professional tennis player you've got to have consistency. He hasn't really impressed in a while so I guess it would be time for him to make a deep run.
As defending champion Mikhail Youzhny has got to be considered. Even when you're not playing well if you return to a ground you're familiar with and have fond memories of you can often find your game. Youzhny will enjoy the indoor courts and he will fancy his chances. Last years beaten finalist Lucas Lacko is also back this year. He had a good week here in 2012 and he will be hoping to go one better and he has got a decent draw.
Two men I'm watching closely this week are Grigor Dimitrov and Andreas Seppi. Seppi had a career best season in 2012 and is up to 18 in the world. He is in good form and I think he will be in the final here in Zagreb. Dimitrov is a player I said at the start of the year would have a big season. He started well, reaching a final in Brisbane, but he was disappointed in the Aussie Open losing in the first round. I have faith in him to bounce back here though and make a good run.
There is great value in this event if you find the right player. Cilic is the favourite at 11/4 and Youzhny can be got at 8/1. Baghdatis is at 10s and Melzer 12s but the value lies outside of these in my opinion. Dimitrov at 8/1 is a very tempting bet but I'm going to go with Andreas Seppi at 9/2. For me he is a certain to reach the final with none of the main contenders in his half of the draw. He's beaten Cilic already this year so he knows he can do it (despite losing to him today) and I think he'll win this event.
ATP Montpellier
This week Montpellier hosts the Open Sud de France as the ATP Tour returns to action following the Davis Cup break. This event has been kind to the French with a winner in either the singles or doubles event every year since 2005. This year no fewer than ten French players take part and with four of them seeded they will be confident of a singles winner this year.
Top seed here is a man from the Czech Republic. Tomas Berdych has been in good form this year and he will see this as a chance to get some confidence going with a title win. I see this man having a very strong year and if he can get his mentality right he will be a threat at majors. He found a solution against Djokovic and after winning a set he went back to the losing game. It made no sense and that's something he is going to have to work on with his coach. He is the defending champion here so I think it's safe to assume he will have a good week here. Second seed Janko Tipsarevic pulled out of Serbia's Davis Cup tie so his fitness has to be questioned. If he is playing well then I could see him having a good week. It will all depend on how his foot holds up but it will be tough for him with so much talent in his half of the draw.
Two French players who have started the year well are Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon and I like both of their chances this week. Gasquet has been the form player of the year with a title to his name and a good run in Melbourne. He helped France clinch a victory over Israel last week too. His mentality is so much better than before and it's no secret he is probably the most naturally gifted player in the game. Expect this man to be around come Friday and Saturday. Simon was unfortunate to pick up some injuries in Melbourne but he played well throughout despite that. I like Simon a lot but he seems to lack the cutting edge. He is capable of being a top ten player but he needs to put the hard work in and improve his game plan.
Other players with potential this week include Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils. Davydenko started the year in spectacular fashion and will be hoping he can get back to that form this week. Monfils is back on the tour after an injury plagued year and a half. He played well in Melbourne and if he gets back to form then he could be a danger consistently this year. Also keep an eye on Michael Llodra and Paul-Henri Mathieu who both have fond memories of this event.
For me there are two players I could see lifting the title come next Sunday. Tomas Berdych is the favourite to defend his title at 2/1 and that may well be the safest bet of the week. The man he would face in the semi finals is the biggest danger to him this week. Gasquet goes off at 6/1 and this might be the value bet of the week. I like Gasquet this week in front of his home crowd but going on form alone I have to say Berdych at 2/1 is my tip for this event.
Friday 1 February 2013
Davis Cup Preview
The Davis Cup gets underway today with the World Group first round ties. Each match will have two singles games today so let's have a quick look at who to watch out for today. France gets their tie with Israel underway around noon with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga taking on Amir Weintraub. This should be a very comfortable start for the French side and I'd expect Tsonga to win in three. The second rubber from this tie sees Richard Gasquet face Dudi Sela. This should be slightly more difficult but given the form Gasquet is in they should take a 2-0 lead by the end of play today.
Swiss star, Stanislas Wawrinka will be closely watched today after his performances down under and he faces a man who knows what that feels like in Lukas Rosol. Rosol beat Nadal at Wimbledon last year but hasn't been able to string two wins together since. Wawrinka should win this one in straight forward fashion. Tomas Berdych should level this tie up for the Czech Republic when he faces Henri Laaksonen in the second rubber. Interesting tie this one, I fancy 1-1 heading into tomorrow.
Italy and Croatia meet on the clay of Turin today and this one is very close to call. Fabio Fognini opens against Marin Cilic and normally I'd go for Cilic but I think the clay might just give Fognini an edge. The second tie is another close one but Andreas Seppi is playing great tennis right now and I fancy him to beat Ivan Dodig. This one could go either way but I have a feeling Italy might be 2-0 up by the end of play.
Belgium have a very difficult task on their hands when they face Serbia but I think they'll get a perfect start when David Goffin faces Viktor Troicki. Goffin is a stylish player with a fierce forehand and I don' see Troicki having enough to beat him. The second tie is a certainty for Serbia as Novak Djokovic faces Olivier Rochus. Rochus leads their head to head 3-2 but Novak is a changed man since their last meeting and he will win this one comfortably.
Argentina and Germany has got fifth rubber decider written all over it. I think they'll split today's results one apiece and the doubles will be crucial. Phillip Kohlschreiber will be just too good for Carlos Berlocq to give Germany a lead but I don't see any of the Germans beating Juan Monaco on the clay. He faces Florian Mayer who is a very good player but he won't find joy against Monaco.
The USA should take a 2-0 lead into the doubles tomorrow when they face Brazil. Sam Querrey and Tomasz Bellucci are evenly split but the medium pace indoor hard courts will swing it Querrey's way. The second tie sees John Isner return to action after a knee injury to face Thiago Alves. This game is only going one way with Isner taking the point for the USA.
Canada and Spain is a fascinating contest with Spain missing three top eleven players. Canada have a great chance of an upset and Milos Raonic will start them off by beating Albert Ramos. Ramos will have a good few months coming up on the clay but indoor hard courts won't so him any favours. I think the Spanish will get a point back when Guillermo Garcia-Lopez faces Frank Dancevic. There is a gulf in class between these two and I fancy the Spaniard.
Swiss star, Stanislas Wawrinka will be closely watched today after his performances down under and he faces a man who knows what that feels like in Lukas Rosol. Rosol beat Nadal at Wimbledon last year but hasn't been able to string two wins together since. Wawrinka should win this one in straight forward fashion. Tomas Berdych should level this tie up for the Czech Republic when he faces Henri Laaksonen in the second rubber. Interesting tie this one, I fancy 1-1 heading into tomorrow.
Italy and Croatia meet on the clay of Turin today and this one is very close to call. Fabio Fognini opens against Marin Cilic and normally I'd go for Cilic but I think the clay might just give Fognini an edge. The second tie is another close one but Andreas Seppi is playing great tennis right now and I fancy him to beat Ivan Dodig. This one could go either way but I have a feeling Italy might be 2-0 up by the end of play.
Belgium have a very difficult task on their hands when they face Serbia but I think they'll get a perfect start when David Goffin faces Viktor Troicki. Goffin is a stylish player with a fierce forehand and I don' see Troicki having enough to beat him. The second tie is a certainty for Serbia as Novak Djokovic faces Olivier Rochus. Rochus leads their head to head 3-2 but Novak is a changed man since their last meeting and he will win this one comfortably.
Argentina and Germany has got fifth rubber decider written all over it. I think they'll split today's results one apiece and the doubles will be crucial. Phillip Kohlschreiber will be just too good for Carlos Berlocq to give Germany a lead but I don't see any of the Germans beating Juan Monaco on the clay. He faces Florian Mayer who is a very good player but he won't find joy against Monaco.
The USA should take a 2-0 lead into the doubles tomorrow when they face Brazil. Sam Querrey and Tomasz Bellucci are evenly split but the medium pace indoor hard courts will swing it Querrey's way. The second tie sees John Isner return to action after a knee injury to face Thiago Alves. This game is only going one way with Isner taking the point for the USA.
Canada and Spain is a fascinating contest with Spain missing three top eleven players. Canada have a great chance of an upset and Milos Raonic will start them off by beating Albert Ramos. Ramos will have a good few months coming up on the clay but indoor hard courts won't so him any favours. I think the Spanish will get a point back when Guillermo Garcia-Lopez faces Frank Dancevic. There is a gulf in class between these two and I fancy the Spaniard.
Monday 28 January 2013
Davis Cup World Group Squads Announced
The squads for the opening rounds of the 2013 Davis Cup have been announced and the Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic has made himself available. After the first Grand Slam of the year it will be interesting to see if players can reproduce their good form again or, in some cases, can they rediscover form as they represent their countries. Defending champions Czech Republic have an away tie in Switzerland and must do without the fifth rubber hero from the final, Radek Stepanek, who withdrew today. Spain are without David Ferrer, Rafa Nadal and Fernando Verdasco which leaves them vulnerable against Canada. So let's go through the fixtures and squads.
As I said Spain are left short this week but they do have the in form Nicolas Almagro in their squad. They also have Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez available for doubles duty. Albert Ramos is the fourth player but don't be surprised to see Granollers on singles and doubles duty. They face a tricky Canadian side with Milos Raonic the big danger. Vasek Pospisil will be the second singles player and the North American outfit will be hoping he can pick up at least one win as they attempt to pull off the upset. Their doubles side is likely to be Frank Dancevic and the experienced Daniel Nestor. Canada have home advantage and have opted to play on an indoor hard court which gives them a great chance to get a result.
Italy have taken full advantage of the home venue rule as they bring the big hitting Croatian side to an indoor clay arena in Turin. Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini are likely to be the singles players with Paolo Lorenzi and Simone Bolelli playing doubles. The Croatian side is headed by Marin Cilic who will be looking for revenge on Seppi after his Aussie Open defeat and he is joined by Ivan Dodig. Antonio Veic and Mate Pavic will be the doubles outfit. The Croatians may be the slight favourites but the surface may edge it towards Italy.
Another country hoping to use their home advantage is Belgium as they bring tournament favourites, Serbia, to an indoor clay arena. The Belgians have a strong side head by David Goffin. He is backed up by the unpredictable Steve Darcis and their doubles line up is likely to be Ruben Bemelmans and Olivier Rochus. The surface is clearly an attempt to make the Serbians uncomfortable but the bad news for Belgium is that Serbia have got Novak Djokovic available to them. He is joined by Janko Tipsarevic as Serbia boast possibly the best singles combination in the world right now. Viktor Troicki and Nenad Zimonjic will play the doubles tie.
With home advantage the USA are one of the toughest teams to beat. John Isner and Sam Querrey will be their singles team and on the indoor hard courts of Jacksonville they are likely to be competitive against any outfit. They will face a Brazilian singles side of Thomaz Bellucci and Thiago Alves. The doubles encounter is always in the USA's favour no matter who they play as the Brian Brothers, Bob and Mike, take part. Their opposition is going to be Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares but the Americans will be heavily fancied in their own back yard.
Rouen, in the North of France, is the venue for the meeting between France and Israel. The indoor hard courts are likely to be advantageous to the singles duo of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet. Two in for players are going to be tough to beat and the men charged with that task are Dudi Sela and Amir Weintraub. Michael Llodra and Julien Benneteau are the French doubles duo and they will face a strong Israeli side in Andy Ram and Jonathan Elrich.
Argentina must do without Juan Martin Del Potro for their clash with Germany but still have a strong line up to call upon. On the outdoor clay they will fancy clay court specialist Juan Monaco to get the job done and I would imagine David Nalbandian will be their other singles player. He has played doubles more often for Argentina in the last few years but Horacio Zeballos and Carlos Berlocq have played a lot of doubles in the last year so logically I think they will be the doubles side. Germany have got Philipp Kohlschreiber and Florian Mayer playing singles and a nice doubles pairing of Tobias Kamke and Christopher Kas.
Kazakhstan have brought Austria to another indoor clay arena and will call upon Mikhail Kukushkin to lead their side. He is joined by Andrey Golubev and the doubles pairing of Evgeny Korolev and Yuri Schukin. They face a tricky match with Austria led by the experienced Jurgen Melzer. Their other singles player is likely to be Andreas Haider Maurer. Alexander Peya and Julien Knowle are the other two men but don't be surprised to see Knowle overlooked.
The final match up is the fascinating encounter between Switzerland and Czech Republic. The Swiss side are led by Stanislas Wawrinka who had a thrilling match with Djokovic in Melbourne last week so he will be watched by everyone this week to see if it was fluke. Marco Chiudinelli will be the other singles player and the doubles pairing is Michael Lammer and Henri Laakson. The indoor hard courts was an interesting choice considering the Czechs have chosen Tomas Berdych who could prosper on the hard courts. Ivo Minar replaces Radek Stepanek as their singles pairing and that leaves the doubles pairing unknown. They usually go Berdych/Stepanek but they could now opt for Lukas Rosol and Jiri Vesely.
WTA Open de Suez & Pattaya
This week there are two tournaments to look forward to as the women's tour gets back to normality after the Australian Open. Players will either be looking to carry on their good form from Melbourne or trying to get back into their rhythm after a disappointing spell down under. There are a number of the best players in the world playing this week which makes for two very interesting tournaments.
Starting with the event in Paris this week, the Open de Suez. Last year, Angelique Kerber won her first tour event at this tournament but she isn't playing this week so we will have a new champion. The top seed this week is Sara Errani, who left the Australian Open singles in the early rounds, and she will see this as a great chance to get back into form. If she's on top form I can see her going all the way but there are a number of potentially tricky ties for her along the way, most notably a clash with Dominika Cibulkova. She should be full of confidence after winning the Australian Open doubles with Roberta Vinci who is also competing here.
Unseeded Mona Barthel is well worth watching this week after a strong start to the year. She faces Vinci in round two but I could see her winning that and reaching the latter stages. Marion Bartoli was the beaten finalist last year and she should have a strong week here despite a tricky draw. Julia Goerges is a dangerous player too. She has plenty of talent and will fancy herself against most people in the draw this week. Second seed Petra Kvitova has had a nightmare start to the season but she will eventually find her form, whether it's this week or not is like predicting the weather. A possible sleeper in the draw is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The young Russian disappointed in Melbourne but has started the year well and I expect her to be a big name this season. Similarly I see Tsvetana Pironkova as a danger this week if she's on form. She reminds me a lot of Richard Gasquet. She has the talent but whether she can now put in the hard work to become consistent is the challenge. This week is tough to call with such talent taking part. Petra Kvitova is the 10/3 favourite but I can't confidently back someone in such poor form. Cibulkova is at 6/1 and Errani at 13/2 but I'm going with Marion Bartoli at 7/2 this week.
In Pattaya this week we have another top class draw with Ana Ivanovic leading the field as top seed. I think she's improving steadily and will eventually rejoin the winners circuit on a consistent basis. This week is a chance for her to get some good form going. Second seed this week is Maria Kirilenko and she is a player I like. She had a good run in Melbourne but she was simply overpowered by Serena. She has the game to compete here this week and be a serious contender. Defending champion Daniela Hantuchova is back to defend her title and she has fond memories here with two titles to her name. Sabine Lisicki had a nightmare third set against Wozniacki in Melbourne and she will be looking to put that behind her here with a good run. Elena Vesnina has been incredible so far this season and so this week she might be looking at a run to the championship. There is a lot of quality on show this week and Ivanovic is your 7/2 favourite. Lisicki is almost 6/1 which could represent good value, as does Hantuchova at 10/1. I'm torn between two Russian ladies this week. I like Kirilenko at 4/1 but my pick this week is Vesnina at 11/2.
Starting with the event in Paris this week, the Open de Suez. Last year, Angelique Kerber won her first tour event at this tournament but she isn't playing this week so we will have a new champion. The top seed this week is Sara Errani, who left the Australian Open singles in the early rounds, and she will see this as a great chance to get back into form. If she's on top form I can see her going all the way but there are a number of potentially tricky ties for her along the way, most notably a clash with Dominika Cibulkova. She should be full of confidence after winning the Australian Open doubles with Roberta Vinci who is also competing here.
Unseeded Mona Barthel is well worth watching this week after a strong start to the year. She faces Vinci in round two but I could see her winning that and reaching the latter stages. Marion Bartoli was the beaten finalist last year and she should have a strong week here despite a tricky draw. Julia Goerges is a dangerous player too. She has plenty of talent and will fancy herself against most people in the draw this week. Second seed Petra Kvitova has had a nightmare start to the season but she will eventually find her form, whether it's this week or not is like predicting the weather. A possible sleeper in the draw is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The young Russian disappointed in Melbourne but has started the year well and I expect her to be a big name this season. Similarly I see Tsvetana Pironkova as a danger this week if she's on form. She reminds me a lot of Richard Gasquet. She has the talent but whether she can now put in the hard work to become consistent is the challenge. This week is tough to call with such talent taking part. Petra Kvitova is the 10/3 favourite but I can't confidently back someone in such poor form. Cibulkova is at 6/1 and Errani at 13/2 but I'm going with Marion Bartoli at 7/2 this week.
In Pattaya this week we have another top class draw with Ana Ivanovic leading the field as top seed. I think she's improving steadily and will eventually rejoin the winners circuit on a consistent basis. This week is a chance for her to get some good form going. Second seed this week is Maria Kirilenko and she is a player I like. She had a good run in Melbourne but she was simply overpowered by Serena. She has the game to compete here this week and be a serious contender. Defending champion Daniela Hantuchova is back to defend her title and she has fond memories here with two titles to her name. Sabine Lisicki had a nightmare third set against Wozniacki in Melbourne and she will be looking to put that behind her here with a good run. Elena Vesnina has been incredible so far this season and so this week she might be looking at a run to the championship. There is a lot of quality on show this week and Ivanovic is your 7/2 favourite. Lisicki is almost 6/1 which could represent good value, as does Hantuchova at 10/1. I'm torn between two Russian ladies this week. I like Kirilenko at 4/1 but my pick this week is Vesnina at 11/2.
Sunday 27 January 2013
Djokovic- Master of Melbourne...Again
It may not have lived up to the standards of the 2012 final but the result was the same as Novak Djokovic became the first man in the open era to win three Australian Open in succession. He overcame the challenge of Andy Murray for the third year in a row on a scoreline of 6-7 7-6 6-3 6-2. In a match lasting three hours and forty minutes the Serb showed why he is the best player in the world as he swept aside his opponent. Djokovic started the brighter and had five break points but failed to convert and it was Murray who forced a tie break and took the first set. Murray started the second set in aggressive form and forced a 0-40 situation on the Djokovic serve but Djokovic came up with the goods to hold serve and from then on he was always in control. Apart from a spell between the end of the first set and beginning of the second where Murray won 18 out of 20 points it was Djokovic who was the more aggressive player and he showed exactly why he is the king of the tennis game right now.
Throughout the match Murray could only force break point opportunities in two of Djokovic's service games and Djokovic constantly had the answers and wasn't broken throughout the game. The final two sets were similar to the first with both players holding serve but when Djokovic broke through at 3-3 he never looked back. It was exhibition tennis from the world number one in the fourth set as he hit winner after winner to break Murray twice more to win the title. Looking ahead to the coming months and with the return of Rafa Nadal next week we can look forward to the continuation of their fascinating rivalry as the two best players in tennis look set to collide again. For Djokovic this win was crucial as he tried to prove he is still the main man. With little or no wind on the court it was left to the tennis ability and he showed he reigns supreme over Murray. Murray may well have his chance again but for now Djokovic is very much the best player in men's tennis.
Throughout the match Murray could only force break point opportunities in two of Djokovic's service games and Djokovic constantly had the answers and wasn't broken throughout the game. The final two sets were similar to the first with both players holding serve but when Djokovic broke through at 3-3 he never looked back. It was exhibition tennis from the world number one in the fourth set as he hit winner after winner to break Murray twice more to win the title. Looking ahead to the coming months and with the return of Rafa Nadal next week we can look forward to the continuation of their fascinating rivalry as the two best players in tennis look set to collide again. For Djokovic this win was crucial as he tried to prove he is still the main man. With little or no wind on the court it was left to the tennis ability and he showed he reigns supreme over Murray. Murray may well have his chance again but for now Djokovic is very much the best player in men's tennis.
Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray
It's been two incredible weeks of tennis. We've had two weeks of no stop tennis. No rain and no backlog of games. The first Grand Slam of the year has set the bar high for the remainder of the majors after two thrilling weeks. Today we had Victoria Azarenka and Li Na contest the women's final and nobody who sat down to watch the game will have been disappointed. It was such an entertaining game with high quality tennis throughout. So after the ladies put on a show it's now down to the men to close out the tournament in style tomorrow.
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have played some thrilling matches in the past and now, for the second consecutive major event, they meet on the biggest stage. Novak is the two time defending champion and has been in sensational form this fortnight. Andy Murray is confident in his game after winning his maiden Grand Slam at the US Open, where he beat Djokovic in the final. That win is the reason the bookmakers and most pundits believe this game is up for grabs and will be close. The conditions that day were a huge factor because the winds were extremely high and the one thing Djokovic struggles with is wind. Wind makes it difficult to keep playing pure tennis and Andy has always liked playing in tough conditions because he is a defensive player. Players who use a lot of slice and play with plenty of margin for error will always prosper in the wind. On Rod Laver Arena, the wind is not an issue because the stadium is so compact so the winner tomorrow will have to earn the win with their shot making.
This is the reason that Novak is the clear favourite for me. He is a far superior shot maker and in big matches between these two that is the reason that the Serb has prevailed more often than not. Murray is improving his game and can compete with the big three on a more consistent basis now but there are still too many weaknesses in both his game and mentality for him to be considered on the same level as Djokovic, Federer or Nadal. He has become a more aggressive player in the past six months but we are still seeing times when he reverts back to his passive game and the sooner he overcomes that the sooner he can realise his full potential. A win tomorrow over Novak will go a long way to making him a permanent figure in major finals.
So what does Andy need to do to overcome the Serb? The first thing he has to do is be aggressive. If he tries to play passive and wait for Novak to make errors then this game will be over very quick. He has to play from the baseline and go for his shots and dictate the rallies. His forehand has to be a weapon tomorrow. When the game got close in the second and fourth set against Federer his forehand was a liability. If his forehand is anything but perfect tomorrow he won't survive. The next thing is his mentality. He can take confidence from beating Federer but he has to keep his feet on the ground. Let's be realistic, Federer was below par and rumours from Melbourne suggest he was suffering from a back problem since his match with Tsonga. Take nothing away from Murray he was clinical and played the best he ever has against Roger but he has to look at it as a small step towards breaking the stranglehold the top three have on the game.
His attitude was poor at times on Friday, that has to change. He became passive way too often when the game was close and that's not the way to beat Djokovic. He's got to take the big points in his stride and dictate the outcome himself. Put the game on your racquet. If you miss the shot or your opponent comes up with a great winner then you put your hands up and say too good, but you have to be in control of the point. That's what Nadal, Federer and Djokovic do and that's why they are the best. Murray has a great chance to join them tomorrow.
The biggest problem for Murray tomorrow will be his serve. His serve was a major factor on Friday but when times got tough his second serve became a liability. There was too much spin and not enough pace or placement. When he serves well he is tough to beat but we have yet to see Murray come up with the goods on serve in a big game. If he can get a high percentage of first serves tomorrow I think he has a great chance. When looking at the stats look at the unforced errors and winners columns. If Murray has a high number of both then he will be close. That will indicate an aggressive style. For Murray to win he needs to serve i high percentage, stay aggressive and have the right mentality.
For Djokovic, he needs to stay playing the way he has been. Stanislas Wawrinka played absolutely sensational tennis last Sunday but Djokovic stood firm and came through it. Tomas Berdych was a potential threat but Djokovic brushed him aside in style. David Ferrer is a world class player and was playing some of the best tennis of his career but Novak was simply breathtaking in that semi final. He simply blew his opponent away and the scary part was that Ferrer played so well. Anybody else would have lost after an hour with the way Djokovic was hitting but Ferrer asked him questions time after time but he always had the answers. His ground strokes have been a major weapon this fortnight. He's play is reminiscent of the form he had in 2011.
He is serving well too. He never even gave Wawrinka a chance to break him in the fifth set. He is so mentally strong and always remains the aggressor which makes playing him a nightmare. He is so relaxed around the place the last few days that everything seems second nature to him. He arrived for his press conference today with a koala clipped to his jacket and cracked jokes about he and Murray's childhood. His big statement from that press conference was that he is ready. He is over the loss of the US Open final but he remembers the pain of losing a major final and he doesn't want to go through that again.
So who will win the first major of the year? This match is massive for a number of reasons. It's the final Grand Slam where we don't have Rafa and his return will make it more difficult to win majors. For Djokovic he knows the the entire tour will be more intense with Rafa back and he will want to send the Spaniard a message with a convincing win here. For Murray he knows how good those two were last year and in 2011 and he will want to win this slam to give him the confidence to challenge those two. The clear conditions make this match all about the tennis and for that reason the logical choice is Novak Djokovic. He is by far the best player in the world right now and should win another major tomorrow to join Andre Agassi on four Australian Open titles.
He simply has too much tennis for the Scot and their last two meetings show he has the mental edge over Murray. In their last two meetings Murray won the first set before Djokovic showed his class to win through. He even saved five match points in Shanghai which for me was the turning point in his game. He has been unstoppable since then and I'm tipping him to show his class tomorrow and win this one in four sets.
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