It's been seven long months but this week Rafael Nadal is finally returning to the ATP tour. The VTR Open in Chile sees the start of the golden swing as the ATP Tour has four weeks going through Latin America. This period of the tour is usually used by clay court specialists looking to gain some form or confidence. This year the golden swing has a more significant meaning, Rafael Nadal's comeback.
Playing his first event since Wimbledon last year, all eyes will be on the Spaniard to see where his game is at. The absence of arguably the greatest clay court player of all time has seen the sports best current rivalry left on hold. There is no question that Rafa and Novak Djokovic are the two best players in the world and until Nadal's injury, there was nobody else even coming close to these two. It looked like Novak lost some of his intensity during the last seven months, while Roger Federer got a new lease of life and became world number one again and won a major title. Andy Murray took full advantage of Nadal's absence to win his first Grand Slam. Before Wimbledon last year, Nadal and Djokovic contested four major finals in a row, Nadal himself was in eight of the previous nine finals, winning five. His return will raise the standard of tennis on the tour and I look forward to seeing Rafa and Novak going at it on the biggest stages again.
It's likely to be some time before he gets back to full fitness but I do think that he can easily win three titles in the next four weeks. He has committed to playing here and the Brasil Open and Acapulco, three ATP 250 clay court events. These events won't contain the big name players and I don't see him losing to anyone on clay. This week will be the toughest as he tries to find some rhythm in competitive action again. He has been training with Tommy Robredo in the last few weeks so I'm sure his game is in a solid place.
Second seed this week, Juan Monaco, is going to be the biggest threat this week. He is the defending champion and a very competent clay court player. He knows how to move around the dirt and has all the shots to compete against anyone on the clay. Beating Nadal in the final this week would be a dream for Monaco but can he upset the odds to win? Injury kept Tommy Robredo from the tour for a long time but he has come back strong and he is another who knows his way around a clay court. The 2011 winner will fancy his chances of a good week here to help get his ranking back to where it should be.
Jeremy Chardy reached the semi finals last year and has started the 2013 season very well. I don't think he could beat Nadal or Monaco on clay to win this event and I don't see him beating players like Robredo either. A player I like this week is Albert Ramos. The Spaniard had a great clay court campaign last year and will be a danger this week. He should run into Pablo Andujar in the quarter finals and that would be a great game. Andujar is equally as good on the red dirt and the winner of that clash would fancy themselves to beat Monaco in a semi final.
Other dangerous players this week include Argentinian Carlos Berlocq. He has got the game to be a threat this week but whether he has the big game temperament to win the title is another thing. Paolo Lorenzi and Albert Montanes are also capable of some big wins but I don't see enough consistency for either to win the event.
Jeremy Chardy goes off at 12/1 this week but I don't see any value in that and I don't see any in backing Ramos (33/1) or Berlocq at (50/1). Juan Monaco is at 4/1 and that might be a very good bet if you think Nadal won't win it out. Monaco should be in the final at least, providing he plays to his potential. The only bet for me this week is Rafa Nadal, going off at 4/7. You won't get odds like that for a tournament like this ever again and this is a must.
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