ATP Rotterdam

This week we have one of my favourite tournaments on the tour, the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam. I like this event because it is one of the most competitive on the tour and it always contains some big upsets. Roger Federer is the defending champion and returns as top seed to defend his title. This event is played on an indoor hard court and traditionally has suited flat hitters and serve and volley players. Player such as Radek Stepanek and Michael Llodra have won this event in the past and Robin Soderling won it twice in 2010 and 2011 but hasn't played since.
          Federer is the favourite this week but there will be question marks over his fitness after a back problem in Melbourne. I don't think he will be suffering this week though. He's too experienced to play with an injury in a smaller event at this stage of his career. Roger will be preparing for the Summer where he will hope to add at least one major title and these events will be all about tuning his game. He is a master on an indoor court and it takes something special to beat him on this surface.
          Juan Martin Del Potro didn't live up to expectations at the Australian Open but I don't think that was entirealy down to poor play. Jeremy Chardy caught him on the day and played lights out tennis. Del Potro was actually playing great tennis up until that point and I genuinely believe he would have been in the final if he had got past Chardy. I think the big Argentine will have a very big season and this week could be the start of it. He is the second seed and at the very least I expect him to be in a semi final.
          The form player this year has without doubt been Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has won two titles  already this year, including a great win in Montpellier last week. As I've said numerous times the big difference with Gasquet this year is his mentality. He wants to be the best now and he is willing to work hard to get there. His coach deserves all the credit for the way he pushed him when he came on board and we are seeing the rewards of that hard work on the tour now. He could make a huge statement on the tour this week with a win.
          Jerzy Janowicz has got the game to have a good week here. He hits relatively flat and hits very big. This court is a bit similar to the courts in Paris where he burst on to the scene last year. He potentially could be good this week but his mentality is still questionable. Gilles Simon has been very good this season and it was a shame injury disrupted his Aussie Open. He could be dangerous this week if he maintains his good form. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing much better this year. Hiring a coach was the best move for him and he could be in for a big week.
          The field this week contains a few lower ranked players who will thrive on these courts and conditions. Michael Llodra has had great success here in the past and he will be dangerous for whoever he meets along the way this week. Marcos Baghdatis is another who will be tough to beat. Grigor Dimitrov and Bernard Tomic face off in round one and the winner will fancy there chances of going deep.
          It's tough to pick a winner this week with so much talent. Federer is the favourite at around 6/5 but I'm reluctant to back him as he probably hasn't spent much time on court in the last few weeks. Tsonga is a great price at around 8/1 given his improvements in recent weeks but I don't know if he has a full week of good results in him yet. Gasquet is a very generous 20/1 in places and with him in such great form he might be the one to watch. My tip this week is with last years beaten finalist though. He has played exceptional since that loss to Federer and has since beaten Federer twice indoors in the same season, the only man to do so in over a decade. At 4/1 Del Potro is the man I see victorious next week.