This week the ATP Tour has three stops with two ATP 500 events in Dubai and Acapulco and an ATP 250 event in Delray Beach. The worlds top players are out in force with most of the top twenty all in action. Below I'll quickly look at who the contenders are and give my outright tournament tips, starting with the star studded event in Dubai.
Roger Federer is a five time champion at this event and is the defending champion after beating Andy Murray in last years final. Federer was sluggish today when he came through in three against Malek Jaziri. I don't like the way Federer is playing right now and I don't think he'll be lifting the title on Sunday. Novak Djokovic returns to action for the first time since winning the Australian Open at the event he won three times in a row from 09-11. The Serb might be short of match practice but he is still the man to beat. Juan Martin Del Potro is the man in form and will be loving a chance to play the top players. I think the Argentine is Djokovic's biggest threat this week and might just be able to upset the Serb. Tomas Berdych seems to be on the cusp of the top four but needs to start getting consistent wins over them soon. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played well last week to win in Marseille but is so hit and miss it's hard to know what to expect this week. Outside of the top four seeds I don't see any other winner.
The second ATP 500 event is in Acapulco and is going to be a massive indicator as to where Rafa Nadal's game is at. He enters as the second seed behind David Ferrer, having dropped to fifth in the rankings. Ferrer is the favourite for the event in my eyes because he is in such great form and is probably the best natural clay courter behind Nadal. If Nadal was fully fit it would be impossible to see Ferrer beating him but this is his big chance. Nadal has played well in his first two events back but this is the big test. If he beats Ferrer in the final then I am 100% confident he will be back at the top of the game very very soon. If not, then we know it will take longer before we see him competing for majors. The only other players I'm watching this week are Nicolas Almagro and Stanislas Wawrinka. Almagro is a natural clay court player and can't be ruled out against anyone. Wawrinka is in great form this year and if he keeps this up then he will be a top ten player very soon. For me, the title is between the top two Spaniards.
Finally Delray Beach hosts an ATP 250 event this week. Last week's winner in Memphis, Kei Nishikori is back at the scene of his first ever ATP title this week full of confidence. Nishikori is another player who can blow hot and cold and that's why I'm struggling to back him this week. Top seed John Isner has underperformed for the last few weeks as he returns from injury but I do think he will hit form soon. This week provides a great chance for him with a favourable draw making him my favourite to make the final from the top half. Watch young American Jack Sock this week to see if he can follow up his great win over Milos Raonic last week. Tommy Haas is one of the favourite for this event, having won it back in 2006 but he has lost in the first round on his last four visits. I don't see that happening again and I fancy him to go a long way. Sam Querrey and Aleksandr Dolgopolov have been unpredictable this year but could make headlines this week if they play to their potential, especially the Ukrainian.
As far as picking the winners go I've picked an outright winner for all three events as well as an each way bet in two events. In Dubai I've gone for Novak Djokovic at 8/11. He is the best in the world and if he is even at 75% he could be untouchable this week. His only threat is Del Potro who I considered picking but Novak seems to have an edge over Delpo. I've also gone for Tomas Berdych each way at 12/1. He will love these conditions and I think he'll beat Tsonga and Federer along the way.
In Acapulco, I've gone for Nadal at 4/6. It's a risk backing him against Ferrer at this early stage of his comeback but I've never once backed against him on clay and I can't start now. He is the king of the red dirt and I think he'll really announce himself back on the tour this week.
In Delray Beach, I've chosen John Isner at 6/1. I fancy his big serve to get him through this week on these fast hard courts and win his first title of the year. This week could kick start his season. I've also chosen Tommy Haas each way at 8/1. The German veteran may not be at his consistent best yet but I have been very impressed with him in the last few weeks. Respiratory problems forced him out of Memphis but he was outstanding in San Jose the week before. He has made a lot of finals in the last year where he seems to fall just short which makes him a good each way bet. I see no reason he can't at least make a final here.
Monday 25 February 2013
Tuesday 19 February 2013
ATP Buenos Aires
The third stop of the Latin-American clay court swing is in Buenos Aires this week. The first two legs of the four event swing were dominated by the return of Rafa Nadal as he reached the final in Vina Del Mar and then won the Brasilian Open. This week Nadal takes a break but we do still have a very strong field in Argentina this week. The Buenos Aires LTC is known as the Cathedral of Argentinian tennis but the last four titles have all gone to Spanish players. Not since Juan Monaco and David Nalbandian lifted the title in 2007 and 2008 have the home favourites had joy here.
David Nalbandian offers the best hope of Argentinian success this week but his fitness must be questioned after only returning to the tour last week. His form was incredible in Sao Paulo though, as he reached the final. Two weeks in a row is a big ask for an ageing Nalbandian but you wouldn't rule him out. Federico Delbonis has been playing well on the challenger tour sine the start of the year and doesn't look out of place since returning to the main tour. Whether he has the ability to go deep here is another thing.
Nicolas Almagro is back this year after reaching the final last year and winning the event in 2011. He lost to Nalbandian last week which was a disappointing result for him. Given his start to the year it seemed very unlikely he would lose early on his return to clay. I don't doubt his clay court talent though and I would expect a better showing this week. Fellow Spaniard Albert Ramos is one to watch this week. He had a great win over Flavio Cipolla yesterday and I saw a lot of him on clay last year, where I was very impressed. A potential dark horse in the draw, nobody will want to play him.
Tommy Robredo is a talented clay courter and has got a very nice draw so I would watch out for him to win some matches this week. Pablo Andujar and Albert Montanes face each other in the opening round and the winner, likely to be Andujar, will be relishing an early shot at Almagro after his loss last week. Stan Wawrinka has been through the wars this year already. He lost a five hour match with Djokovic in Melbourne and lost a seven hour doubles match at the Davis Cup. He has played sensational tennis so far this year and I think if he can keep that level up then he will be top ten and challenging at majors on a regular basis. A win this week certainly puts him on the map.
For me there is only one man to watch this week. David Ferrer is the fourth best clay court player in the world, behind only Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. He would be one of the most decorated clay court players of all time if he hadn't lost 14 times to Nadal on clay, including six finals. There isn't anybody in the field this week who can compete with him on the dirt but he could be caught out by a lack of games recently. He hasn't played since Australia but that shouldn't matter once he finds his rhythm. The second half of the draw is very open so I wouldn't even risk an each way bet. Ferrer is 10/11 this week and that is unmissable in my opinion.
David Nalbandian offers the best hope of Argentinian success this week but his fitness must be questioned after only returning to the tour last week. His form was incredible in Sao Paulo though, as he reached the final. Two weeks in a row is a big ask for an ageing Nalbandian but you wouldn't rule him out. Federico Delbonis has been playing well on the challenger tour sine the start of the year and doesn't look out of place since returning to the main tour. Whether he has the ability to go deep here is another thing.
Nicolas Almagro is back this year after reaching the final last year and winning the event in 2011. He lost to Nalbandian last week which was a disappointing result for him. Given his start to the year it seemed very unlikely he would lose early on his return to clay. I don't doubt his clay court talent though and I would expect a better showing this week. Fellow Spaniard Albert Ramos is one to watch this week. He had a great win over Flavio Cipolla yesterday and I saw a lot of him on clay last year, where I was very impressed. A potential dark horse in the draw, nobody will want to play him.
Tommy Robredo is a talented clay courter and has got a very nice draw so I would watch out for him to win some matches this week. Pablo Andujar and Albert Montanes face each other in the opening round and the winner, likely to be Andujar, will be relishing an early shot at Almagro after his loss last week. Stan Wawrinka has been through the wars this year already. He lost a five hour match with Djokovic in Melbourne and lost a seven hour doubles match at the Davis Cup. He has played sensational tennis so far this year and I think if he can keep that level up then he will be top ten and challenging at majors on a regular basis. A win this week certainly puts him on the map.
For me there is only one man to watch this week. David Ferrer is the fourth best clay court player in the world, behind only Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. He would be one of the most decorated clay court players of all time if he hadn't lost 14 times to Nadal on clay, including six finals. There isn't anybody in the field this week who can compete with him on the dirt but he could be caught out by a lack of games recently. He hasn't played since Australia but that shouldn't matter once he finds his rhythm. The second half of the draw is very open so I wouldn't even risk an each way bet. Ferrer is 10/11 this week and that is unmissable in my opinion.
Monday 18 February 2013
U.S National Indoor Championships, Memphis
Memphis hosts the U.S National Indoor Tennis Championships this week as the American hard court swing enters it's second week. Last week, the San Jose Open was played for the final time with Milos Raonic completing a three-peat and finishing with an undefeated event record of 12-0. He beat veteran Tommy Haas in the final and both men, who met for the first time on Sunday, look set to meet in the quarter finals here in Memphis. The home crowd will be hoping that one of nine American players can keep the title on home soil. Jurgen Melzer returns to defend his crown after winning last year despite a broken toe.
Melzer hasn't had much success since that win and is unseeded this year. He faces a tricky tie against Igor Sisjling in the opening round and it's hard to see him going very far this week. We should have a new champion this week and the top seed for the event is Croatian Marin Cilic. Cilic is on a six game winning streak after winning the title in Zagreb two weeks ago and will fancy his chances of winning a second title of the season here this week.
Another man looking to win a second title is Canadian Milos Raonic. Raonic was very impressive winning in San Jose and has always enjoyed this part of the year. The indoor courts provide him with a huge advantage because of his massive serve and ground strokes. Raonic has made steady improvements each year he's been on the tour and this year looks like the time for him to make his move into the top ten. To do so he will need to produce his best tennis on the big occasions, majors and masters 1000 events. He's been beaten in the final here for the last two years and will be hoping to go one better this week.
Tommy Haas is the second favourite for this event in my opinion. He played fantastic last week and against anyone else in the final he would have won. His serve was great all week and until the final he hadn't been broken. Raonic is a player who will always cause problems for the German but if he could get over the Canadian this week then I think he could win the title. He has always played well here and has won the titles three times (1999, 2006, 2007). No matter what happens it's clear that Haas won't fall away this season and will be looking to improve on his great 2012 season.
American John Isner lost out to Haas last week but I did like the way he was playing until then. Isner missed out on the Aussie Open with a knee injury and I don't think he's fully fit right now. These events will get him in shape for the upcoming Masters 1000 events. Once he starts firing like we know he can then I think he'll be back in the top ten again. I think another semi final appearance is on the cards this week but can he beat an in form Raonic? Or gain revenge on Haas? I don't think so. Not just yet.
2010 champion Sam Querrey would love to be back playing the way he was when he won this title. Injuries have played their part in stopping the Americans progress but there were signs last year, mainly at Wimbledon, that he could return to his best. He hasn't been good this year and I really do worry he might be set for a slide down the rankings. A good run this week might be ease my worries. Kei Nishikori's career has stalled somewhat in the past year. He looked set for a charge at the top ten but it hasn't materialised. I hope he can get back to his best because he is a really exciting prospect on the tour.
Not surprisingly the bookies make Milos Raonic the favourite this week at 11/4. They place Cilic as second favourite at 5/1 which is good value because he is in the easier half of the draw and is playing well. Nishikori is too unreliable to confidently back him but 7/1 is great value as he is also in the easier half. If you fancy Haas to get past Raonic then 10/1 is a very generous price. Aleksandr Dolgopolov hasn't been at his best but he can't be ruled out at 12/1, and neither can Fernando Verdasco at 18/1. Cilic might be a safer bet but indoors it's hard to look past Raonic. I fancy him to finally get his hands on this trophy and at 11/4 there is plenty of value in him.
Sunday 17 February 2013
Open 13 Marseille
The big events are coming thick and fast on the ATP Tour and this week the players stop in Marseille for the Open 13. Last week in Rotterdam we had a very strong field headed by Roger Federer and this week we have an equally strong line up. Czech star Tomas Berdych leads the field as the top seed but it's the second seed, and defending champion, Juan Martin Del Potro who starts as the favourite after winning the Rotterdam title today. Could Berdych disrupt the Argentine? Will one of the French contingent delight the home crowd? Or will Del Potro assert his dominance again? With the quality of field this week, just about anything is possible.
At the start of the year I said Berdych seemed ready to launch an assault on the top four this season and everything I've seen from him so far has suggested he can. In the Australian Open he played exceptionally well up until a tactical disaster against Djokovic. He had the winning formula but refused to stick at it. That's criminal against someone like Novak but he can learn from his mistakes. This week is a great chance for him to show he means business this year. He doesn't have an easy draw. Players like Julien Benneteau and Jerzy Janowicz are dangerous indoors but Berdych should be beating players like that. If he doesn't at least reach the semi final I would be very disappointed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looked to be turning a corner this year after hiring Roger Rasheed as a coach but last week he lost in his first match to Igor Sisjling. I know the Dutch player is dangerous on an indoor court but someone like Tsonga shouldn't be losing to him. That was a poor performance and as much as he tried he was found wanting when he needed to produce his best and that to me is a lack of confidence in his own game. That's a worrying sign for the remainder of the year. The only thing in his favour is he had an extra week to work with Rasheed and if he can have a good week here then he will be more confident in himself and more confident in what his coach is trying to do with him.
The French crowd will have plenty to cheer about this week with so many of their players on form. The most impressive of the French contingent is Richard Gasquet. He has two titles this year and is playing some of the best tennis of his career. He is playing a consistent brand of tennis and when that is combined with the deadly shots he can produce especially off his backhand. The next step for him is big performances in ATP 500 events and Masters 1000 tournaments. But for now, these ATP 250 events are perfect for gaining confidence and building momentum.
Gilles Simon had a strong week reaching the semi finals in Rotterdam but he seemed to be struggling physically at the end of his semi final. That leaves me questioning his fitness this week so it's hard to know what to expect from him. Julien Benneteau played the best tennis I've seen from him in a long time to reach the final in Rotterdam. He beat Roger Federer comfortably before losing to Del Potro. There was nothing wrong with how he played against the Argentine but Delpo was just incredible all week and bordering on unstoppable. Michael Llodra will be tough to beat indoor and Gael Monfils is always tricky. Janko Tipsarevic is a danger in the field but I don't see enough consistency from him to suggest he could win this week.
Finally, Del Potro. He was simply breathtaking in Rotterdam. He played aggressively and served incredibly well. He is the defending champion and I really think we are going to see him reach the top of the game again this year. He is capable of competing in all the remaining majors because he is a threat on clay and grass and of course hard courts. This week could be crucial in his season. If he produces the same tennis as last week then he will be near impossible to beat. Indoors I don't see anybody beating him this week. I would go as far to say he is the best indoor player in the game right now and he will prove it this week.
Berdych and Tsonga will provide a massive challenge for Delpo this week and are at great prices for the title. Berdych goes off at 4/1 and Tsonga at 9/2. Both good value prices but I'm avoiding both. Someone like Gasquet is value at 12/1 given his recent form but it's Del Potro who represents the best value this week. He was 4/1 last week and this week is at 11/4. That's unmissable in my opinion and that's why I'm backing him this week.
At the start of the year I said Berdych seemed ready to launch an assault on the top four this season and everything I've seen from him so far has suggested he can. In the Australian Open he played exceptionally well up until a tactical disaster against Djokovic. He had the winning formula but refused to stick at it. That's criminal against someone like Novak but he can learn from his mistakes. This week is a great chance for him to show he means business this year. He doesn't have an easy draw. Players like Julien Benneteau and Jerzy Janowicz are dangerous indoors but Berdych should be beating players like that. If he doesn't at least reach the semi final I would be very disappointed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looked to be turning a corner this year after hiring Roger Rasheed as a coach but last week he lost in his first match to Igor Sisjling. I know the Dutch player is dangerous on an indoor court but someone like Tsonga shouldn't be losing to him. That was a poor performance and as much as he tried he was found wanting when he needed to produce his best and that to me is a lack of confidence in his own game. That's a worrying sign for the remainder of the year. The only thing in his favour is he had an extra week to work with Rasheed and if he can have a good week here then he will be more confident in himself and more confident in what his coach is trying to do with him.
The French crowd will have plenty to cheer about this week with so many of their players on form. The most impressive of the French contingent is Richard Gasquet. He has two titles this year and is playing some of the best tennis of his career. He is playing a consistent brand of tennis and when that is combined with the deadly shots he can produce especially off his backhand. The next step for him is big performances in ATP 500 events and Masters 1000 tournaments. But for now, these ATP 250 events are perfect for gaining confidence and building momentum.
Gilles Simon had a strong week reaching the semi finals in Rotterdam but he seemed to be struggling physically at the end of his semi final. That leaves me questioning his fitness this week so it's hard to know what to expect from him. Julien Benneteau played the best tennis I've seen from him in a long time to reach the final in Rotterdam. He beat Roger Federer comfortably before losing to Del Potro. There was nothing wrong with how he played against the Argentine but Delpo was just incredible all week and bordering on unstoppable. Michael Llodra will be tough to beat indoor and Gael Monfils is always tricky. Janko Tipsarevic is a danger in the field but I don't see enough consistency from him to suggest he could win this week.
Finally, Del Potro. He was simply breathtaking in Rotterdam. He played aggressively and served incredibly well. He is the defending champion and I really think we are going to see him reach the top of the game again this year. He is capable of competing in all the remaining majors because he is a threat on clay and grass and of course hard courts. This week could be crucial in his season. If he produces the same tennis as last week then he will be near impossible to beat. Indoors I don't see anybody beating him this week. I would go as far to say he is the best indoor player in the game right now and he will prove it this week.
Berdych and Tsonga will provide a massive challenge for Delpo this week and are at great prices for the title. Berdych goes off at 4/1 and Tsonga at 9/2. Both good value prices but I'm avoiding both. Someone like Gasquet is value at 12/1 given his recent form but it's Del Potro who represents the best value this week. He was 4/1 last week and this week is at 11/4. That's unmissable in my opinion and that's why I'm backing him this week.
Monday 11 February 2013
ATP San Jose
The SAP Open is a tournament with a rich tradition with previous winners such as Ashe, Laver, Connors, Sampras and Agassi. There are some big hitters in this years draw and plenty of American interest. Two time defending champion Milos Raonic has a perfect record at this event and is the favourite to regain his title. He will have a tough job defending his crown however, with stars such as John Isner and Tommy Haas in the field, along with young American Ryan Harrison.
Raonic is the biggest challenge for everyone in the field with his monstrous serve so tough to handle indoors. His ground strokes are also beneficial on this surface and it will take a big effort for anyone to take the crown off the Canadian. American Sam Querrey has got similar weapons at his disposal but not at the same standard. Querrey has got the ability to beat anybody indoors, especially in America but I don't think he has the variety in his game to beat someone like Raonic.
Ryan Harrison hits a flat enough ball to cause players problems this week. I think he could prosper with home advantage bu tan early clash with Raonic will be a step too far in my opinion. Fernando Verdasco has always played well here, only losing once in two appearances and that loss was in the final to Raonic. He could go deep here this week but I'd question his mentality at times and that's why I find it hard to back him. In his side of the draw he could face big serving Ivo Karlovic who will be a threat on this surface.
Fourth seed Tommy Haas is a former champion here and is someone who could be dangerous if he can hit his stride early. I expect Haas to take a while to find his rhythm at his age and so I wasn't expecting much in the first few weeks of the season but it's time he put some results together now. This week is a great chance for him. Second seed John Isner will be hoping that Haas doesn't reach a semi final meeting that they could contest. Isner is another player who will enjoy the conditions this week and I would be surprised if he wasn't around at the weekend.
There are some very tempting prices this week and if you can pick the right player you will be making a healthy profit. John Isner at 4/1 is a price I was very tempted to back, bearing in mind his serve can win him games even if he isn't hitting the ball well. If Querrey got going then 7/1 for him would be very nice. Tommy Haas will be entertaining this week but I don't see him winning titles this week although he is a nice price of 8/1. Verdasco's record here makes 10/1 tempting but the obvious choice for me this week is Milos Raonic at 9/4. The Canadian has never lost here and always enjoys this part of the year.
Raonic is the biggest challenge for everyone in the field with his monstrous serve so tough to handle indoors. His ground strokes are also beneficial on this surface and it will take a big effort for anyone to take the crown off the Canadian. American Sam Querrey has got similar weapons at his disposal but not at the same standard. Querrey has got the ability to beat anybody indoors, especially in America but I don't think he has the variety in his game to beat someone like Raonic.
Ryan Harrison hits a flat enough ball to cause players problems this week. I think he could prosper with home advantage bu tan early clash with Raonic will be a step too far in my opinion. Fernando Verdasco has always played well here, only losing once in two appearances and that loss was in the final to Raonic. He could go deep here this week but I'd question his mentality at times and that's why I find it hard to back him. In his side of the draw he could face big serving Ivo Karlovic who will be a threat on this surface.
Fourth seed Tommy Haas is a former champion here and is someone who could be dangerous if he can hit his stride early. I expect Haas to take a while to find his rhythm at his age and so I wasn't expecting much in the first few weeks of the season but it's time he put some results together now. This week is a great chance for him. Second seed John Isner will be hoping that Haas doesn't reach a semi final meeting that they could contest. Isner is another player who will enjoy the conditions this week and I would be surprised if he wasn't around at the weekend.
There are some very tempting prices this week and if you can pick the right player you will be making a healthy profit. John Isner at 4/1 is a price I was very tempted to back, bearing in mind his serve can win him games even if he isn't hitting the ball well. If Querrey got going then 7/1 for him would be very nice. Tommy Haas will be entertaining this week but I don't see him winning titles this week although he is a nice price of 8/1. Verdasco's record here makes 10/1 tempting but the obvious choice for me this week is Milos Raonic at 9/4. The Canadian has never lost here and always enjoys this part of the year.
Brasil Open 2013
Sao Paolo hosts an ATP 250 event with some of the best clay court players the world has to offer on show this week. This is an event that traditionally has been won by Spaniards with six of the last eight winners being Spanish. Two time defending champion, Nicolas Almagro, will be looking to win his fourth title here but will face stiff competition from the likes of Juan Monaco and Rafa Nadal.
Nadal returned to the tour last week and reached the final in Vina Del Mar before losing to Horacio Zeballos. It was a strong week from Nadal and once he gets back match fit he will be back at the top of the game for sure. His tennis was exceptional last week. I was very impressed with how aggressive he was on his backhand but it was clear he was a bit ring rusty when it came to reading the serve coming at him. I think he will be better this week and it would be a big surprise if he wasn't playing at the weekend.
Monaco lost in the first round last week and that was a massive shock. This week he will be out to prove himself again as one of the best clay court players on the tour. I would expect him to be in a semi final but not before facing some tough clay courters in the early rounds. Almagro is definitely the second favourite for this title and it's easy to see why. He is a very strong player and has started the year tremendously. On clay he is a force to be reckoned with and I think he is going to be close to defending his title.
There are quite a few strong clay courters who have a chance to shine this week. Horacio Zeballos won his first tour title last week when he beat Nadal but I don't see him as being a constant threat. He played incredible but it's no coincidence he is 73 in the world. He just hit some incredible shots and managed to scrape out a good win but I would be shocked if he could repeat that here this week. Fabio Fognini has had a strong start to the year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him cause a few upsets. David Nalbandian returns to action this week and hopefully he is fit enough to sustain a challenge long enough to make a mark. He still has the game but whether he has the fitness is the question. Thomasz Bellucci is another capable of big results on clay but consistency is a major problem for the Brazilian.
7/1 for Nicolas Almagro is the best price this week considering his start to the year and his good performances here in the past. I like him as an each way bet but having seen Nadal last week you have to be impressed and as long as his knees hold up it's hard to look beyond him. At 5/11 he is at a good price to take the title.
Sunday 10 February 2013
ATP Rotterdam
This week we have one of my favourite tournaments on the tour, the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam. I like this event because it is one of the most competitive on the tour and it always contains some big upsets. Roger Federer is the defending champion and returns as top seed to defend his title. This event is played on an indoor hard court and traditionally has suited flat hitters and serve and volley players. Player such as Radek Stepanek and Michael Llodra have won this event in the past and Robin Soderling won it twice in 2010 and 2011 but hasn't played since.
Federer is the favourite this week but there will be question marks over his fitness after a back problem in Melbourne. I don't think he will be suffering this week though. He's too experienced to play with an injury in a smaller event at this stage of his career. Roger will be preparing for the Summer where he will hope to add at least one major title and these events will be all about tuning his game. He is a master on an indoor court and it takes something special to beat him on this surface.
Juan Martin Del Potro didn't live up to expectations at the Australian Open but I don't think that was entirealy down to poor play. Jeremy Chardy caught him on the day and played lights out tennis. Del Potro was actually playing great tennis up until that point and I genuinely believe he would have been in the final if he had got past Chardy. I think the big Argentine will have a very big season and this week could be the start of it. He is the second seed and at the very least I expect him to be in a semi final.
The form player this year has without doubt been Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has won two titles already this year, including a great win in Montpellier last week. As I've said numerous times the big difference with Gasquet this year is his mentality. He wants to be the best now and he is willing to work hard to get there. His coach deserves all the credit for the way he pushed him when he came on board and we are seeing the rewards of that hard work on the tour now. He could make a huge statement on the tour this week with a win.
Jerzy Janowicz has got the game to have a good week here. He hits relatively flat and hits very big. This court is a bit similar to the courts in Paris where he burst on to the scene last year. He potentially could be good this week but his mentality is still questionable. Gilles Simon has been very good this season and it was a shame injury disrupted his Aussie Open. He could be dangerous this week if he maintains his good form. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing much better this year. Hiring a coach was the best move for him and he could be in for a big week.
The field this week contains a few lower ranked players who will thrive on these courts and conditions. Michael Llodra has had great success here in the past and he will be dangerous for whoever he meets along the way this week. Marcos Baghdatis is another who will be tough to beat. Grigor Dimitrov and Bernard Tomic face off in round one and the winner will fancy there chances of going deep.
It's tough to pick a winner this week with so much talent. Federer is the favourite at around 6/5 but I'm reluctant to back him as he probably hasn't spent much time on court in the last few weeks. Tsonga is a great price at around 8/1 given his improvements in recent weeks but I don't know if he has a full week of good results in him yet. Gasquet is a very generous 20/1 in places and with him in such great form he might be the one to watch. My tip this week is with last years beaten finalist though. He has played exceptional since that loss to Federer and has since beaten Federer twice indoors in the same season, the only man to do so in over a decade. At 4/1 Del Potro is the man I see victorious next week.
Federer is the favourite this week but there will be question marks over his fitness after a back problem in Melbourne. I don't think he will be suffering this week though. He's too experienced to play with an injury in a smaller event at this stage of his career. Roger will be preparing for the Summer where he will hope to add at least one major title and these events will be all about tuning his game. He is a master on an indoor court and it takes something special to beat him on this surface.
Juan Martin Del Potro didn't live up to expectations at the Australian Open but I don't think that was entirealy down to poor play. Jeremy Chardy caught him on the day and played lights out tennis. Del Potro was actually playing great tennis up until that point and I genuinely believe he would have been in the final if he had got past Chardy. I think the big Argentine will have a very big season and this week could be the start of it. He is the second seed and at the very least I expect him to be in a semi final.
The form player this year has without doubt been Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has won two titles already this year, including a great win in Montpellier last week. As I've said numerous times the big difference with Gasquet this year is his mentality. He wants to be the best now and he is willing to work hard to get there. His coach deserves all the credit for the way he pushed him when he came on board and we are seeing the rewards of that hard work on the tour now. He could make a huge statement on the tour this week with a win.
Jerzy Janowicz has got the game to have a good week here. He hits relatively flat and hits very big. This court is a bit similar to the courts in Paris where he burst on to the scene last year. He potentially could be good this week but his mentality is still questionable. Gilles Simon has been very good this season and it was a shame injury disrupted his Aussie Open. He could be dangerous this week if he maintains his good form. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing much better this year. Hiring a coach was the best move for him and he could be in for a big week.
The field this week contains a few lower ranked players who will thrive on these courts and conditions. Michael Llodra has had great success here in the past and he will be dangerous for whoever he meets along the way this week. Marcos Baghdatis is another who will be tough to beat. Grigor Dimitrov and Bernard Tomic face off in round one and the winner will fancy there chances of going deep.
It's tough to pick a winner this week with so much talent. Federer is the favourite at around 6/5 but I'm reluctant to back him as he probably hasn't spent much time on court in the last few weeks. Tsonga is a great price at around 8/1 given his improvements in recent weeks but I don't know if he has a full week of good results in him yet. Gasquet is a very generous 20/1 in places and with him in such great form he might be the one to watch. My tip this week is with last years beaten finalist though. He has played exceptional since that loss to Federer and has since beaten Federer twice indoors in the same season, the only man to do so in over a decade. At 4/1 Del Potro is the man I see victorious next week.
Monday 4 February 2013
ATP Vina Del Mar
It's been seven long months but this week Rafael Nadal is finally returning to the ATP tour. The VTR Open in Chile sees the start of the golden swing as the ATP Tour has four weeks going through Latin America. This period of the tour is usually used by clay court specialists looking to gain some form or confidence. This year the golden swing has a more significant meaning, Rafael Nadal's comeback.
Playing his first event since Wimbledon last year, all eyes will be on the Spaniard to see where his game is at. The absence of arguably the greatest clay court player of all time has seen the sports best current rivalry left on hold. There is no question that Rafa and Novak Djokovic are the two best players in the world and until Nadal's injury, there was nobody else even coming close to these two. It looked like Novak lost some of his intensity during the last seven months, while Roger Federer got a new lease of life and became world number one again and won a major title. Andy Murray took full advantage of Nadal's absence to win his first Grand Slam. Before Wimbledon last year, Nadal and Djokovic contested four major finals in a row, Nadal himself was in eight of the previous nine finals, winning five. His return will raise the standard of tennis on the tour and I look forward to seeing Rafa and Novak going at it on the biggest stages again.
It's likely to be some time before he gets back to full fitness but I do think that he can easily win three titles in the next four weeks. He has committed to playing here and the Brasil Open and Acapulco, three ATP 250 clay court events. These events won't contain the big name players and I don't see him losing to anyone on clay. This week will be the toughest as he tries to find some rhythm in competitive action again. He has been training with Tommy Robredo in the last few weeks so I'm sure his game is in a solid place.
Second seed this week, Juan Monaco, is going to be the biggest threat this week. He is the defending champion and a very competent clay court player. He knows how to move around the dirt and has all the shots to compete against anyone on the clay. Beating Nadal in the final this week would be a dream for Monaco but can he upset the odds to win? Injury kept Tommy Robredo from the tour for a long time but he has come back strong and he is another who knows his way around a clay court. The 2011 winner will fancy his chances of a good week here to help get his ranking back to where it should be.
Jeremy Chardy reached the semi finals last year and has started the 2013 season very well. I don't think he could beat Nadal or Monaco on clay to win this event and I don't see him beating players like Robredo either. A player I like this week is Albert Ramos. The Spaniard had a great clay court campaign last year and will be a danger this week. He should run into Pablo Andujar in the quarter finals and that would be a great game. Andujar is equally as good on the red dirt and the winner of that clash would fancy themselves to beat Monaco in a semi final.
Other dangerous players this week include Argentinian Carlos Berlocq. He has got the game to be a threat this week but whether he has the big game temperament to win the title is another thing. Paolo Lorenzi and Albert Montanes are also capable of some big wins but I don't see enough consistency for either to win the event.
Jeremy Chardy goes off at 12/1 this week but I don't see any value in that and I don't see any in backing Ramos (33/1) or Berlocq at (50/1). Juan Monaco is at 4/1 and that might be a very good bet if you think Nadal won't win it out. Monaco should be in the final at least, providing he plays to his potential. The only bet for me this week is Rafa Nadal, going off at 4/7. You won't get odds like that for a tournament like this ever again and this is a must.
Playing his first event since Wimbledon last year, all eyes will be on the Spaniard to see where his game is at. The absence of arguably the greatest clay court player of all time has seen the sports best current rivalry left on hold. There is no question that Rafa and Novak Djokovic are the two best players in the world and until Nadal's injury, there was nobody else even coming close to these two. It looked like Novak lost some of his intensity during the last seven months, while Roger Federer got a new lease of life and became world number one again and won a major title. Andy Murray took full advantage of Nadal's absence to win his first Grand Slam. Before Wimbledon last year, Nadal and Djokovic contested four major finals in a row, Nadal himself was in eight of the previous nine finals, winning five. His return will raise the standard of tennis on the tour and I look forward to seeing Rafa and Novak going at it on the biggest stages again.
It's likely to be some time before he gets back to full fitness but I do think that he can easily win three titles in the next four weeks. He has committed to playing here and the Brasil Open and Acapulco, three ATP 250 clay court events. These events won't contain the big name players and I don't see him losing to anyone on clay. This week will be the toughest as he tries to find some rhythm in competitive action again. He has been training with Tommy Robredo in the last few weeks so I'm sure his game is in a solid place.
Second seed this week, Juan Monaco, is going to be the biggest threat this week. He is the defending champion and a very competent clay court player. He knows how to move around the dirt and has all the shots to compete against anyone on the clay. Beating Nadal in the final this week would be a dream for Monaco but can he upset the odds to win? Injury kept Tommy Robredo from the tour for a long time but he has come back strong and he is another who knows his way around a clay court. The 2011 winner will fancy his chances of a good week here to help get his ranking back to where it should be.
Jeremy Chardy reached the semi finals last year and has started the 2013 season very well. I don't think he could beat Nadal or Monaco on clay to win this event and I don't see him beating players like Robredo either. A player I like this week is Albert Ramos. The Spaniard had a great clay court campaign last year and will be a danger this week. He should run into Pablo Andujar in the quarter finals and that would be a great game. Andujar is equally as good on the red dirt and the winner of that clash would fancy themselves to beat Monaco in a semi final.
Other dangerous players this week include Argentinian Carlos Berlocq. He has got the game to be a threat this week but whether he has the big game temperament to win the title is another thing. Paolo Lorenzi and Albert Montanes are also capable of some big wins but I don't see enough consistency for either to win the event.
Jeremy Chardy goes off at 12/1 this week but I don't see any value in that and I don't see any in backing Ramos (33/1) or Berlocq at (50/1). Juan Monaco is at 4/1 and that might be a very good bet if you think Nadal won't win it out. Monaco should be in the final at least, providing he plays to his potential. The only bet for me this week is Rafa Nadal, going off at 4/7. You won't get odds like that for a tournament like this ever again and this is a must.
Sunday 3 February 2013
ATP Zagreb
This week Zagreb hosts the PBZ Zagreb indoors for just the eighth time and four former champions are returning this year, including the defending champion Mikhail Youzhny. Croatians have been very successful in front of their home crowd with last year being the first year a Croatian didn't contest the final. This year two time champion Marin Cilic and 2011 winner Ivan Dodig will carry the hopes of the Croatian fans.
Cilic is the top seed and favourite for the title and it's easy to see why. The indoor hard courts will play into his hands and his big game will take some stopping. The draw was kind to him and he shouldn't be troubled until meeting Marcos Baghdatis. That would be a fascinating clash but with home advantage I'd fancy Cilic to reach a semi final. Ivan Dodig has fallen away a bit for me. He produces some good tennis and gets big wins every now and again but as a professional tennis player you've got to have consistency. He hasn't really impressed in a while so I guess it would be time for him to make a deep run.
As defending champion Mikhail Youzhny has got to be considered. Even when you're not playing well if you return to a ground you're familiar with and have fond memories of you can often find your game. Youzhny will enjoy the indoor courts and he will fancy his chances. Last years beaten finalist Lucas Lacko is also back this year. He had a good week here in 2012 and he will be hoping to go one better and he has got a decent draw.
Two men I'm watching closely this week are Grigor Dimitrov and Andreas Seppi. Seppi had a career best season in 2012 and is up to 18 in the world. He is in good form and I think he will be in the final here in Zagreb. Dimitrov is a player I said at the start of the year would have a big season. He started well, reaching a final in Brisbane, but he was disappointed in the Aussie Open losing in the first round. I have faith in him to bounce back here though and make a good run.
There is great value in this event if you find the right player. Cilic is the favourite at 11/4 and Youzhny can be got at 8/1. Baghdatis is at 10s and Melzer 12s but the value lies outside of these in my opinion. Dimitrov at 8/1 is a very tempting bet but I'm going to go with Andreas Seppi at 9/2. For me he is a certain to reach the final with none of the main contenders in his half of the draw. He's beaten Cilic already this year so he knows he can do it (despite losing to him today) and I think he'll win this event.
Cilic is the top seed and favourite for the title and it's easy to see why. The indoor hard courts will play into his hands and his big game will take some stopping. The draw was kind to him and he shouldn't be troubled until meeting Marcos Baghdatis. That would be a fascinating clash but with home advantage I'd fancy Cilic to reach a semi final. Ivan Dodig has fallen away a bit for me. He produces some good tennis and gets big wins every now and again but as a professional tennis player you've got to have consistency. He hasn't really impressed in a while so I guess it would be time for him to make a deep run.
As defending champion Mikhail Youzhny has got to be considered. Even when you're not playing well if you return to a ground you're familiar with and have fond memories of you can often find your game. Youzhny will enjoy the indoor courts and he will fancy his chances. Last years beaten finalist Lucas Lacko is also back this year. He had a good week here in 2012 and he will be hoping to go one better and he has got a decent draw.
Two men I'm watching closely this week are Grigor Dimitrov and Andreas Seppi. Seppi had a career best season in 2012 and is up to 18 in the world. He is in good form and I think he will be in the final here in Zagreb. Dimitrov is a player I said at the start of the year would have a big season. He started well, reaching a final in Brisbane, but he was disappointed in the Aussie Open losing in the first round. I have faith in him to bounce back here though and make a good run.
There is great value in this event if you find the right player. Cilic is the favourite at 11/4 and Youzhny can be got at 8/1. Baghdatis is at 10s and Melzer 12s but the value lies outside of these in my opinion. Dimitrov at 8/1 is a very tempting bet but I'm going to go with Andreas Seppi at 9/2. For me he is a certain to reach the final with none of the main contenders in his half of the draw. He's beaten Cilic already this year so he knows he can do it (despite losing to him today) and I think he'll win this event.
ATP Montpellier
This week Montpellier hosts the Open Sud de France as the ATP Tour returns to action following the Davis Cup break. This event has been kind to the French with a winner in either the singles or doubles event every year since 2005. This year no fewer than ten French players take part and with four of them seeded they will be confident of a singles winner this year.
Top seed here is a man from the Czech Republic. Tomas Berdych has been in good form this year and he will see this as a chance to get some confidence going with a title win. I see this man having a very strong year and if he can get his mentality right he will be a threat at majors. He found a solution against Djokovic and after winning a set he went back to the losing game. It made no sense and that's something he is going to have to work on with his coach. He is the defending champion here so I think it's safe to assume he will have a good week here. Second seed Janko Tipsarevic pulled out of Serbia's Davis Cup tie so his fitness has to be questioned. If he is playing well then I could see him having a good week. It will all depend on how his foot holds up but it will be tough for him with so much talent in his half of the draw.
Two French players who have started the year well are Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon and I like both of their chances this week. Gasquet has been the form player of the year with a title to his name and a good run in Melbourne. He helped France clinch a victory over Israel last week too. His mentality is so much better than before and it's no secret he is probably the most naturally gifted player in the game. Expect this man to be around come Friday and Saturday. Simon was unfortunate to pick up some injuries in Melbourne but he played well throughout despite that. I like Simon a lot but he seems to lack the cutting edge. He is capable of being a top ten player but he needs to put the hard work in and improve his game plan.
Other players with potential this week include Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils. Davydenko started the year in spectacular fashion and will be hoping he can get back to that form this week. Monfils is back on the tour after an injury plagued year and a half. He played well in Melbourne and if he gets back to form then he could be a danger consistently this year. Also keep an eye on Michael Llodra and Paul-Henri Mathieu who both have fond memories of this event.
For me there are two players I could see lifting the title come next Sunday. Tomas Berdych is the favourite to defend his title at 2/1 and that may well be the safest bet of the week. The man he would face in the semi finals is the biggest danger to him this week. Gasquet goes off at 6/1 and this might be the value bet of the week. I like Gasquet this week in front of his home crowd but going on form alone I have to say Berdych at 2/1 is my tip for this event.
Friday 1 February 2013
Davis Cup Preview
The Davis Cup gets underway today with the World Group first round ties. Each match will have two singles games today so let's have a quick look at who to watch out for today. France gets their tie with Israel underway around noon with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga taking on Amir Weintraub. This should be a very comfortable start for the French side and I'd expect Tsonga to win in three. The second rubber from this tie sees Richard Gasquet face Dudi Sela. This should be slightly more difficult but given the form Gasquet is in they should take a 2-0 lead by the end of play today.
Swiss star, Stanislas Wawrinka will be closely watched today after his performances down under and he faces a man who knows what that feels like in Lukas Rosol. Rosol beat Nadal at Wimbledon last year but hasn't been able to string two wins together since. Wawrinka should win this one in straight forward fashion. Tomas Berdych should level this tie up for the Czech Republic when he faces Henri Laaksonen in the second rubber. Interesting tie this one, I fancy 1-1 heading into tomorrow.
Italy and Croatia meet on the clay of Turin today and this one is very close to call. Fabio Fognini opens against Marin Cilic and normally I'd go for Cilic but I think the clay might just give Fognini an edge. The second tie is another close one but Andreas Seppi is playing great tennis right now and I fancy him to beat Ivan Dodig. This one could go either way but I have a feeling Italy might be 2-0 up by the end of play.
Belgium have a very difficult task on their hands when they face Serbia but I think they'll get a perfect start when David Goffin faces Viktor Troicki. Goffin is a stylish player with a fierce forehand and I don' see Troicki having enough to beat him. The second tie is a certainty for Serbia as Novak Djokovic faces Olivier Rochus. Rochus leads their head to head 3-2 but Novak is a changed man since their last meeting and he will win this one comfortably.
Argentina and Germany has got fifth rubber decider written all over it. I think they'll split today's results one apiece and the doubles will be crucial. Phillip Kohlschreiber will be just too good for Carlos Berlocq to give Germany a lead but I don't see any of the Germans beating Juan Monaco on the clay. He faces Florian Mayer who is a very good player but he won't find joy against Monaco.
The USA should take a 2-0 lead into the doubles tomorrow when they face Brazil. Sam Querrey and Tomasz Bellucci are evenly split but the medium pace indoor hard courts will swing it Querrey's way. The second tie sees John Isner return to action after a knee injury to face Thiago Alves. This game is only going one way with Isner taking the point for the USA.
Canada and Spain is a fascinating contest with Spain missing three top eleven players. Canada have a great chance of an upset and Milos Raonic will start them off by beating Albert Ramos. Ramos will have a good few months coming up on the clay but indoor hard courts won't so him any favours. I think the Spanish will get a point back when Guillermo Garcia-Lopez faces Frank Dancevic. There is a gulf in class between these two and I fancy the Spaniard.
Swiss star, Stanislas Wawrinka will be closely watched today after his performances down under and he faces a man who knows what that feels like in Lukas Rosol. Rosol beat Nadal at Wimbledon last year but hasn't been able to string two wins together since. Wawrinka should win this one in straight forward fashion. Tomas Berdych should level this tie up for the Czech Republic when he faces Henri Laaksonen in the second rubber. Interesting tie this one, I fancy 1-1 heading into tomorrow.
Italy and Croatia meet on the clay of Turin today and this one is very close to call. Fabio Fognini opens against Marin Cilic and normally I'd go for Cilic but I think the clay might just give Fognini an edge. The second tie is another close one but Andreas Seppi is playing great tennis right now and I fancy him to beat Ivan Dodig. This one could go either way but I have a feeling Italy might be 2-0 up by the end of play.
Belgium have a very difficult task on their hands when they face Serbia but I think they'll get a perfect start when David Goffin faces Viktor Troicki. Goffin is a stylish player with a fierce forehand and I don' see Troicki having enough to beat him. The second tie is a certainty for Serbia as Novak Djokovic faces Olivier Rochus. Rochus leads their head to head 3-2 but Novak is a changed man since their last meeting and he will win this one comfortably.
Argentina and Germany has got fifth rubber decider written all over it. I think they'll split today's results one apiece and the doubles will be crucial. Phillip Kohlschreiber will be just too good for Carlos Berlocq to give Germany a lead but I don't see any of the Germans beating Juan Monaco on the clay. He faces Florian Mayer who is a very good player but he won't find joy against Monaco.
The USA should take a 2-0 lead into the doubles tomorrow when they face Brazil. Sam Querrey and Tomasz Bellucci are evenly split but the medium pace indoor hard courts will swing it Querrey's way. The second tie sees John Isner return to action after a knee injury to face Thiago Alves. This game is only going one way with Isner taking the point for the USA.
Canada and Spain is a fascinating contest with Spain missing three top eleven players. Canada have a great chance of an upset and Milos Raonic will start them off by beating Albert Ramos. Ramos will have a good few months coming up on the clay but indoor hard courts won't so him any favours. I think the Spanish will get a point back when Guillermo Garcia-Lopez faces Frank Dancevic. There is a gulf in class between these two and I fancy the Spaniard.
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