ATP Zagreb

This week Zagreb hosts the PBZ Zagreb indoors for just the eighth time and four former champions are returning this year, including the defending champion Mikhail Youzhny. Croatians have been very successful in front of their home crowd with last year being the first year a Croatian didn't contest the final. This year two time champion Marin Cilic and 2011 winner Ivan Dodig will carry the hopes of the Croatian fans.
         Cilic is the top seed and favourite for the title and it's easy to see why. The indoor hard courts will play into his hands and his big game will take some stopping. The draw was kind to him and he shouldn't be troubled until meeting Marcos Baghdatis. That would be a fascinating clash but with home advantage I'd fancy Cilic to reach a semi final. Ivan Dodig has fallen away a bit for me. He produces some good tennis and gets big wins every now and again but as a professional tennis player you've got to have consistency. He hasn't really impressed in a while so I guess it would be time for him to make a deep run.
          As defending champion Mikhail Youzhny has got to be considered. Even when you're not playing well if you return to a ground you're familiar with and have fond memories of you can often find your game. Youzhny will enjoy the indoor courts and he will fancy his chances. Last years beaten finalist Lucas Lacko is also back this year. He had a good week here in 2012 and he will be hoping to go one better and he has got a decent draw.
        Two men I'm watching closely this week are Grigor Dimitrov and Andreas Seppi. Seppi had a career best season in 2012 and is up to 18 in the world. He is in good form and I think he will be in the final here in Zagreb. Dimitrov is a player I said at the start of the year would have a big season. He started well, reaching a final in Brisbane, but he was disappointed in the Aussie Open losing in the first round. I have faith in him to bounce back here though and make a good run.
         There is great value in this event if you find the right player. Cilic is the favourite at 11/4 and Youzhny can be got at 8/1. Baghdatis is at 10s and Melzer 12s but the value lies outside of these in my opinion. Dimitrov at 8/1 is a very tempting bet but I'm going to go with Andreas Seppi at 9/2. For me he is a certain to reach the final with none of the main contenders in his half of the draw. He's beaten Cilic already this year so he knows he can do it (despite losing to him today) and I think he'll win this event.