This year as has been the case for the past few years it is virtually impossible to predict the winner of the women's singles event at the French Open. There are so many contenders for the title and a lot of very talented ladies that are capable of producing big shocks such as the surge of Francesca Schiavone in 2010. World number one and Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka has been the dominant player of the season so far but for her to win another Grand Slam she will have some very stiff competition. Serena Williams is looking to continue her great run of results recently to win her first French Open since beating her sister Venus in 2002. Defending champion Na Li recently made the final of the event in Rome but lost to Maria Sharapova despite having led by a set and 4-0. Sharapova herself has been playing some good tennis and is still looking to win her first French Open title, the only major to have eluded her in her stunning career. Angelique Kerber is also coming into the tournament in form after having an amazing year so far which has seen her rise to number 10 in the world. Of course these are the players in good form but form often counts for nothing when it comes to major tournaments. The important thing for all the women is to make it through to the second week at all costs and play their way into form from there. An important factor in the progression to the second week is of course the draw which was made by men's defending champion Rafael Nadal on Friday. So I'm going to take a look at the four quarters of the draw and pick the quarter finalists before giving my prediction for the title.
At the top of the draw is of course the top seed Victoria Azarenka and on first sight of her quarter of the draw she has got an easy first three matches which should allow her get into her stride very early. Alberta Brianti shouldn't pose any problems and a second round meeting with Dinah Pfizenmaier should be even more comfortable. I would expect Aleksandra Wozniak to be her third round match and again she should progress with ease. Dominika Cibulkova could be her fourth round opponent which would be match worth watching. I watched them play a few months back when Azarenka was still unbeaten for the year and Cibulkova blew her off the court but eventually the Belarussian scrope through the match but I don't think Cibulkova would let a lead slip again if they were to meet in this event so Azarenka will have to be at her best to progress. Things get even more difficult in the quarter final as she could meet 6th seed Sam Stosur or 12th seed Sabine Lisicki. I think Lisicki will get through to face Azarenka because Lisicki is a young energetic player with a lot of power and will hit through a lot of the weaker players in the field. She could face trouble in her third round against Petra Cetkovska who is more than capable of beating her but I think Lisicki is going to be too strong. Stosur can be very effective here with her kick serve but she is very short of confidence lately and lost in the opening round of the Australian Open and I don't think she will have enough to beat Lisicki. So I'm expecting a Lisicki-Azarenka quarter final.
In the second quarter we are going to have a lot very high quality matches and I think a lot of upsets. Third seed Agnieszka Radwanska will be the favourite to make the quarter finals but in order to do so she has to beat some very talented players. Her opening match should be comfortable against Bojana Jovanovski but a second round meeting against Venus Williams will be an interesting tie. Williams a few years ago would have steamrolled Radwanska but lacking fitness and match practice I think Radwanska should beat her in two tight sets. Svetlana Kuznetsova awaits in round three and again it's another tough match. I think she will win it but she will be pushed all the way. It doesn't get any easier in round four as she could face either clay court specialist Sara Errani or the rejuvenated Ana Ivanovic who is a past champion here and knows her way around the red dirt. I would expect Ivanovic to just about beat Errani to meet Radwanska and I do think Ivanovic will beat the the Polish third seed. I think Ivanovic has shown promise this season and looks to be making a return to her best form and this tournament will give her a chance to show just how far she has come. At the other side of this quarter we have the girl I think has an outside chance of going all the way here, Angelique Kerber. She has been outstanding this year and is now a top ten player and I think she will progress to the quarter finals despite a very difficult draw. She has an easy first two rounds but a third round meeting with possibly Flavia Pennetta is a potential stumbling block. Pennetta is a good clay court player and I like the way she moves around the court but Kerber should have too many shots for the Italian. She would be seeded to meet Marion Bartoli in the fourth round but I think Bartoli could be beaten early here. She may have the crowd on her side but she has played some awful tennis recently especially last week when losing to Urszula Radwanska in straight sets. I think Petra Martic might cause her problems but she should be able to just about pull through but I don't see her making it further than round three. Anabel Medina-Garrigues is likely to be her third round opponent and I think the Spaniard would beat Bartoli as she is a very accomplished clay court player. Medina-Garrigues faces Laura Robson in the first round and that's one where she could slip up. If she gets through that then I'd expect her to make the fourth round but if Robson beats her then Bartoli might make the fourth round. Either way I don't see any of those players beating Kerber. I would expect to see Angelique Kerber to play Agnieszka Radwanska in the quarter final.
Defending champion Na Li is in the third quarter and although first round opponent Sorana Cirstea is very good player I don't think she will beat Li who should comfortably make round four although I am going to be keeping an eye on the progress of two young players with bright futures. Christina McHale and Kiki Bertens face off in the first and both are very good players. McHale especially is one I think might make the top ten in the remainder of this year or next year. If she faces Li in round three and brings her best game then she might be able to cause a shock but I think it might be too much to ask too soon. In the fourth round she could face one of three players in my opinion. Vera Zvonareva, Roberta Vinci and Carla Suarez Navarro will battle it out for the right to face Li. I think Zvonareva will win be the one to make the fourth round. She is starting to play better and I fancy her to make the fourth round although I don't think she could beat Li. In the bottom half of this section Petra Kvitova is the fourth seed and should reach the fourth round with ease. In that fourth round it's likely she will face 2010 champions Schiavone. Schiavone made the final last year and will like her chances of going far again and I think she will reach the fourth round with ease but Kvitova will prove a step too far. So that leaves a Li-Kvitova quarter final.
In the fourth quarter of the draw we have the two favourites for the title. I'm not even sure what I can say about this quarter other than it will be a Sharapova-Williams quarter final. The only playesr who could upset Sharapova would be young talented Russians Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Maria Kirilenko. Pavlyuchenkova has got a bright future ahead of her but I don't see her beating Sharapova especially with Maria in such good form. Kirilenko is very capable of beating Sharapova but I don't think she could do it on clay. As for Williams there are also two dangerous players in her part of that quarter. Kaia Kanepi has been in good form lately and had some good wins and she would relish a shot at Williams but I think Serena is playing so well she won't lose too early here. Caroline Wozniacki has certainly got potential to go deep into this tournament but I think not having won a major is weighing heavily on her mind and although I think she will have a great summer I don't think she will have a successful French Open. So Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will meet in the quarter final and it should be an unbelievable match that wouldn't be out of place on final Saturday.
I won't go into detail on the quarter finals until we see for certain who makes it there but I will talk about who I think will make the semi finals and final. I would expect Azarenka to face Kerber in one semi final. I think Azarenka will scrape past Lisicki and Kerber will upset Radwanska. In that semi I think Kerber will finally be beaten as the Belarussian Azarenka is playing very well and has all the shots to hit through Kerber. Azarenka also has got the big game mentality that counts for a lot in Grand Slams. I also saw Azarenka destroy Sharapova on a hard court a few months back and it was scary how good she was. Although it wasn't on clay, I still think it was important as it was her ground strokes and consistency that were phenomenal. So I would expect Azarenka to be at her brilliant best and make the final. In the other semi final I think Na Li will face off against Sharapova. I think Kvitova isn't quite up to fitness levels required for clay yet and that's the only thing stopping her being a finalist here. She will have a great summer but she will fall short here. I'm also giving Sharapova the nod over Williams as I think Sharapova is so focused on completing her career Grand Slam that she will find a way to get through the tough matches just like she did against Li last week in Rome when she fought back from a set and two breaks down to win. Williams is getting back to her best but Sharapova is fitter, stronger and more determined at the moment and that will be the difference. In the semi final I think Li will be beaten by Sharapova again. Li isn't strong enough mentally which seems strange considering she won the title last year. She hasn't really kicked on since then and she completely fell apart against Sharapova last week. With victory in her sight her serve and groundstrokes just deserted her. Sharapova will beat Li and that leaves us with Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. I do truly believe that no matter what upsets occur, and there will be plenty, at the end of two stunning weeks of tennis we will have Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. Who wins the final is anybody's guess. It's almost impossible to separate the two but if I had to pick I would probably give Azarenka the nod because if it gets deep into a third set I'm not convinced Sharapova's serve will hold up in a Grand Slam final, especially here when she's looking to win the only slam to have eluded her. They are the two best players at the moment and they are both playing great tennis. I think they will give us a fascinating final that will showcase all that is great about the women's game right now. It's become more competitive and there are now a number of players playing at a very high level. I think that these two in the final would be a great advertisement for the sport and we can look forward to not only the men's at Wimbledon and the Olympics but also the women's.
Monday 28 May 2012
Saturday 26 May 2012
Roland Garros 2012 Preview
Sunday May 27th sees the start of the second major tournament of 2012 as players make the trip to the beautiful red clay of Paris. So far we've seen a very entertaining clay court season which looks like culminating in a thrilling two weeks of clay court tennis as the players battle it out for the second Grand Slam of the year. Last year, we saw Roger Federer end Novak Djokovic's unbelievable unbeaten run in a stunning semi final only for Rafael Nadal to take down the Swiss maestro for his 6th French Open crown. This year has seen a number of players make giant leaps in their career and catapulted a host of players into Grand Slam contention. Juan Martin Del Potro is beginning to get back to his best, Thomas Berdych is pushing the top players very very close now and is reaching the quarter finals and semi finals on a regular basis, David Ferrer has been brilliant this year and in his last three clay events has only fallen to Nadal and Federer and Nadal again. A number of Frenchmen have played well in recent months and will look to keep the title on French soil for the first time since Yannick Noah in 1983. Gilles Simon is on the verge of the top 10 once again and has had some great results recently, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has cemented down the number 5 ranking and is a threat at any tournament while Richard Gasquet is beginning to fulfil some of his potential after a final appearance in Estoril and defeating Andy Murray in Rome. So French hopes of having an interest deep into the second week are strong this year. Of course nobody could confidently discount Roger Federer from picking up another Grand Slam as he continues his quest to regain the number one ranking. However, this year history beckons for two players and it seems like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course to meet in the final for a 4th consecutive Grand Slam.
As tennis fans we are lucky to have two outstanding athletes and two men who love the sport as much as they do at the very top of the game. In the past 18 months they have dominated the sport with some incredible tennis and have developed a thrilling rivalry which looks certain to last for more years to come. Djokovic had beaten Nadal in seven consecutive finals including at Wimbledon, US Open and of course the Australian Open. But during this clay court season Nadal has twice got the better of the Serb and it seems like he has finally overcome that mental barrier and now it looks like we are set for a fascinating rivalry. I do think we can expect to see these men in the French Open final and if we do it will be unmissable final where the winner will create a piece of history. Djokovic is looking to do what the likes of Nadal, Federer and Sampras have all failed to do and that is to hold all four major titles at one time. It would be an amazing achievement and would surely allow him enter the talk of the greatest player ever. His biggest challenge would be to beat Nadal at Roland Garros, a feat only Robin Soderling has done and Nadal was clearly troubled by knee injuries that year. Nadal himself is chasing history. The Spaniard is looking to become only the 6th player to win seven titles in one major. Both players will be highly motivated for the tournament and unless somebody plays at an extremely high level and causes a huge upset I don't see anybody stopping these two from meeting in yet another final. I don't think Federer has the game to beat Rafa in Paris and more importantly I don't think he truly believes he can beat him. I also don't think he can beat Djokovic in a major as I think Djokovic has got too much stamina and too much creativity for Federer. Scot Andy Murray is still looking for his first major but I don't think he is ever going to win here and with each major that passes it's becoming less likely he will win one. So it's unlikely that anybody outside of the three wins the title here and even that is at a push as it seems Novak and Rafa are a class above the rest at the moment but as is the case with every Grand Slam anything can happen and everyone has to be at their best if they are to get deep into the second week.
Last year's Women's champion Na Li made the draw for the Men's singles on Friday and in that draw Djokovic was placed in Federer's half and Murray in Nadal's. Djokovic is at the very top of the draw and has been given a tricky route through and no doubt he will be challenged on his way to the later stages. Potito Starace is his first match and shouldn't provide any problems but a second round match with Lleyton Hewitt would be a tough match as Hewitt still has the ability to make the top players work very hard for points but ultimately he won't have enough to actually get over the line and win. In round 3 the Serb is likely to face Austrian Jurgen Melzer. That would be a good match for Novak as it will give him practice against a left hander which may be useful for the final. Even better for Djokovic could be a meeting in round 4 against left handed Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco beat Nadal recently but that was on the controversial blue clay in Madrid and Djokovic would have no problems with him if he were to face him. Verdasco has got to beat probably Gilles Muller and then either Nikolay Davydenko or Andreas Seppi in order to reach the fourth round. That's when the easy bit is finished for Novak and he begins to face some stern tests. A quarter final against more than likely Gilles Simon or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits and it will take all of Djokovic's skills to navigate that obstacle. Stanislas Wawrinka will be hoping he can force his way through to meet Djokovic but I think Simon is playing too well lately to lose early in his home Grand Slam.
In the second quarter Roger Federer (3rd seed) faces Tobias Kamke in the first round and should progress minimum fuss. A mouthwatering second round match with David Nalbandian would give the Swiss star a strong workout. The Argentine has got a very good record against Federer and will fancy his chances after some good form this year but I think over five sets Federer will overcome Nalbandian. The old foes don't stop there for Fed. A possible meeting with Andy Roddick awaits in the third round although Roddick has a tricky match with Nicolas Mahut in the opening round. Looking at his draw Roger has got a relatively easy route to the quarter final. A fourth round clash with Feliciano Lopez or Radek Stepanek isn't going to frighten Fed and it's not really until the quarter final that he comes into danger of actually losing. Juan Martin Del Potro and Thomas Berdych are fighting it out to face Federer in the quarter final and those two meeting in the fourth round would be a thrilling match as both have been sensational so far this season and their match in Madrid a few weeks ago was brilliant. I fancy Berdych to win that one and I'd even go as far to say he will beat Federer in the quarter final. I just think he's been brilliant this year and should have so many more wins than he has but has lost matches in final sets and is beaten only by the very best players and I think this might just be his tournament. I see him making a semi final against Djokovic and I would fancy that to go four or possibly five sets but ultimately it will be Djokovic in the final.
In the third section of the draw Andy Murray (4th seed) has got a very difficult task to make it deep into the second week. An easy opening two rounds against Tatsuma Ito and then probably Jarkko Nieminen won't pose too much problems but a third round encounter with Bernard Tomic would be an intersting match. Tomic is surely going to beat a top player at a Grand Slam soon but I don't think this is his time. Personally, I don't see Murray making it past the fourth round. He could face Richard Gasquet who beat him a few weeks ago in Rome or else Aleksandr Dolgopolov. I think Gasquet will beat Murray again simply because he plays aggressive and he is a shot maker that will expose Murray as a defensive player as hedid in Rome. Murray is hyped up under Lendl as being more aggressive and mentally stronger but I really don't see it apart from the first round or two of a tournament where he isn't under pressure. I also think Tommy Haas might be able to cause an upset or two in that section. He has played very well since returning to the tour and qualified with ease last week. A very interesting fourth round match from this section would be John Isner and David Ferrer. Ferrer has been outstanding this year but falls just short of winning the big tournaments when he faces Nadal, Federer and Djokovic while Isner has beaten both Federer and Djokovic this year and last year pushed Nadal to five sets in the first round. I think Ferrer will beat the big American and beat whichever of Gasquet, Murray or Dolgopolov to reach the semi finals. Sadly for Ferrer in the semi final he will once again face Rafa Nadal who he just cannot beat on clay. Ferrer would have every clay court tournament in the game won if he never faced Nadal.
Nadal is in the fourth section of the draw as second seed and really doesn't face much problems in his opening matches. Simone Bolelli won't have any weapons to push the Spaniard and neither will Denis Istomin or Florian Mayer. A fourth round match with Milos Raonic could be very interesting. I think on any other surface and over three sets Raonic might beat Nadal but here in Paris on clay, I just don't see it happening. For Raonic to reach that stage he would have to beat Juan Monaco which is also a very difficult task for him. Monaco is a very acomplished clay court player and if Raonic does beat him and reach the fourth round it will be a very successful French Open for him even if it does end against Nadal. In the quarter final Nadal could face in form Serb Janko Tipsarevic or Nicolas Almagro. Tipsarevic just helped Serbia win the World Team Championships where he beat Thomas Berdych in the first singles rubber of the final. Almagro just won the title in Nice and it would be a fascinating match between these two for the right t play Nadal. Sam Querrey is Tipsarevic's first round opponent and that's the sort of match he could lose if he isn't on his game while Philip Kohlschreiber will be Almagro's toughest test although I wouldn't see Almagro losing that. I think it will be an all-Spaniard quarter final between Almagro and Nadal which Nadal should win in straight sets.
So in my opinion we will see Novak Djokovic and Thomas Berdych in one semi final and Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer in the other. As good as Ferrer and Berdych are and have been this season I don't think either would be capable of winning three sets off Djokovic or Nadal. That would leave us with the Nadal and Djokovic final that will go down as a historic occasion no matter who wins. As i said a few weeks ago both players had something to prove in Rome when they got back onto the red clay and they proved it when they provided us with a thrilling dress rehearsal for what may be to come in a fortnight's time. I think it would be a thrilling match and although Djokovic has won the last three Grand Slams I just don't think he can beat Nadal in Paris. Nadal is almost unbeatable here and with the confidence of beating Djokovic twice on clay already this season he will be confident of regaining his crown. He has only lost once and that was when he was clearly injured and suffering from knee problems which also forced him out of Wimbledon. Apart from that nobody has really come close to beating him here. He hold a 45-1 record here and I think he will make it seven Roland Garros titles. The events of the clay court season so far and all the great matches we have seen it look set to end with a thrilling French Open filled with great tennis and that's exactly what I'm expecting from the next two weeks.
As tennis fans we are lucky to have two outstanding athletes and two men who love the sport as much as they do at the very top of the game. In the past 18 months they have dominated the sport with some incredible tennis and have developed a thrilling rivalry which looks certain to last for more years to come. Djokovic had beaten Nadal in seven consecutive finals including at Wimbledon, US Open and of course the Australian Open. But during this clay court season Nadal has twice got the better of the Serb and it seems like he has finally overcome that mental barrier and now it looks like we are set for a fascinating rivalry. I do think we can expect to see these men in the French Open final and if we do it will be unmissable final where the winner will create a piece of history. Djokovic is looking to do what the likes of Nadal, Federer and Sampras have all failed to do and that is to hold all four major titles at one time. It would be an amazing achievement and would surely allow him enter the talk of the greatest player ever. His biggest challenge would be to beat Nadal at Roland Garros, a feat only Robin Soderling has done and Nadal was clearly troubled by knee injuries that year. Nadal himself is chasing history. The Spaniard is looking to become only the 6th player to win seven titles in one major. Both players will be highly motivated for the tournament and unless somebody plays at an extremely high level and causes a huge upset I don't see anybody stopping these two from meeting in yet another final. I don't think Federer has the game to beat Rafa in Paris and more importantly I don't think he truly believes he can beat him. I also don't think he can beat Djokovic in a major as I think Djokovic has got too much stamina and too much creativity for Federer. Scot Andy Murray is still looking for his first major but I don't think he is ever going to win here and with each major that passes it's becoming less likely he will win one. So it's unlikely that anybody outside of the three wins the title here and even that is at a push as it seems Novak and Rafa are a class above the rest at the moment but as is the case with every Grand Slam anything can happen and everyone has to be at their best if they are to get deep into the second week.
Last year's Women's champion Na Li made the draw for the Men's singles on Friday and in that draw Djokovic was placed in Federer's half and Murray in Nadal's. Djokovic is at the very top of the draw and has been given a tricky route through and no doubt he will be challenged on his way to the later stages. Potito Starace is his first match and shouldn't provide any problems but a second round match with Lleyton Hewitt would be a tough match as Hewitt still has the ability to make the top players work very hard for points but ultimately he won't have enough to actually get over the line and win. In round 3 the Serb is likely to face Austrian Jurgen Melzer. That would be a good match for Novak as it will give him practice against a left hander which may be useful for the final. Even better for Djokovic could be a meeting in round 4 against left handed Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco beat Nadal recently but that was on the controversial blue clay in Madrid and Djokovic would have no problems with him if he were to face him. Verdasco has got to beat probably Gilles Muller and then either Nikolay Davydenko or Andreas Seppi in order to reach the fourth round. That's when the easy bit is finished for Novak and he begins to face some stern tests. A quarter final against more than likely Gilles Simon or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits and it will take all of Djokovic's skills to navigate that obstacle. Stanislas Wawrinka will be hoping he can force his way through to meet Djokovic but I think Simon is playing too well lately to lose early in his home Grand Slam.
In the second quarter Roger Federer (3rd seed) faces Tobias Kamke in the first round and should progress minimum fuss. A mouthwatering second round match with David Nalbandian would give the Swiss star a strong workout. The Argentine has got a very good record against Federer and will fancy his chances after some good form this year but I think over five sets Federer will overcome Nalbandian. The old foes don't stop there for Fed. A possible meeting with Andy Roddick awaits in the third round although Roddick has a tricky match with Nicolas Mahut in the opening round. Looking at his draw Roger has got a relatively easy route to the quarter final. A fourth round clash with Feliciano Lopez or Radek Stepanek isn't going to frighten Fed and it's not really until the quarter final that he comes into danger of actually losing. Juan Martin Del Potro and Thomas Berdych are fighting it out to face Federer in the quarter final and those two meeting in the fourth round would be a thrilling match as both have been sensational so far this season and their match in Madrid a few weeks ago was brilliant. I fancy Berdych to win that one and I'd even go as far to say he will beat Federer in the quarter final. I just think he's been brilliant this year and should have so many more wins than he has but has lost matches in final sets and is beaten only by the very best players and I think this might just be his tournament. I see him making a semi final against Djokovic and I would fancy that to go four or possibly five sets but ultimately it will be Djokovic in the final.
In the third section of the draw Andy Murray (4th seed) has got a very difficult task to make it deep into the second week. An easy opening two rounds against Tatsuma Ito and then probably Jarkko Nieminen won't pose too much problems but a third round encounter with Bernard Tomic would be an intersting match. Tomic is surely going to beat a top player at a Grand Slam soon but I don't think this is his time. Personally, I don't see Murray making it past the fourth round. He could face Richard Gasquet who beat him a few weeks ago in Rome or else Aleksandr Dolgopolov. I think Gasquet will beat Murray again simply because he plays aggressive and he is a shot maker that will expose Murray as a defensive player as hedid in Rome. Murray is hyped up under Lendl as being more aggressive and mentally stronger but I really don't see it apart from the first round or two of a tournament where he isn't under pressure. I also think Tommy Haas might be able to cause an upset or two in that section. He has played very well since returning to the tour and qualified with ease last week. A very interesting fourth round match from this section would be John Isner and David Ferrer. Ferrer has been outstanding this year but falls just short of winning the big tournaments when he faces Nadal, Federer and Djokovic while Isner has beaten both Federer and Djokovic this year and last year pushed Nadal to five sets in the first round. I think Ferrer will beat the big American and beat whichever of Gasquet, Murray or Dolgopolov to reach the semi finals. Sadly for Ferrer in the semi final he will once again face Rafa Nadal who he just cannot beat on clay. Ferrer would have every clay court tournament in the game won if he never faced Nadal.
Nadal is in the fourth section of the draw as second seed and really doesn't face much problems in his opening matches. Simone Bolelli won't have any weapons to push the Spaniard and neither will Denis Istomin or Florian Mayer. A fourth round match with Milos Raonic could be very interesting. I think on any other surface and over three sets Raonic might beat Nadal but here in Paris on clay, I just don't see it happening. For Raonic to reach that stage he would have to beat Juan Monaco which is also a very difficult task for him. Monaco is a very acomplished clay court player and if Raonic does beat him and reach the fourth round it will be a very successful French Open for him even if it does end against Nadal. In the quarter final Nadal could face in form Serb Janko Tipsarevic or Nicolas Almagro. Tipsarevic just helped Serbia win the World Team Championships where he beat Thomas Berdych in the first singles rubber of the final. Almagro just won the title in Nice and it would be a fascinating match between these two for the right t play Nadal. Sam Querrey is Tipsarevic's first round opponent and that's the sort of match he could lose if he isn't on his game while Philip Kohlschreiber will be Almagro's toughest test although I wouldn't see Almagro losing that. I think it will be an all-Spaniard quarter final between Almagro and Nadal which Nadal should win in straight sets.
So in my opinion we will see Novak Djokovic and Thomas Berdych in one semi final and Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer in the other. As good as Ferrer and Berdych are and have been this season I don't think either would be capable of winning three sets off Djokovic or Nadal. That would leave us with the Nadal and Djokovic final that will go down as a historic occasion no matter who wins. As i said a few weeks ago both players had something to prove in Rome when they got back onto the red clay and they proved it when they provided us with a thrilling dress rehearsal for what may be to come in a fortnight's time. I think it would be a thrilling match and although Djokovic has won the last three Grand Slams I just don't think he can beat Nadal in Paris. Nadal is almost unbeatable here and with the confidence of beating Djokovic twice on clay already this season he will be confident of regaining his crown. He has only lost once and that was when he was clearly injured and suffering from knee problems which also forced him out of Wimbledon. Apart from that nobody has really come close to beating him here. He hold a 45-1 record here and I think he will make it seven Roland Garros titles. The events of the clay court season so far and all the great matches we have seen it look set to end with a thrilling French Open filled with great tennis and that's exactly what I'm expecting from the next two weeks.
Monday 14 May 2012
The Effect of the Blue Clay and the Rome Masters
Last week Roger Federer took over as World Number 2 from Rafael Nadal after winning the Madrid Masters 1000 event. Fed's victory however will not be the main headline from the week as the event moved away from the traditional red clay and switched to blue, supposedly for better viewer and player enjoyment of the game. The blue clay was supposed to provide improvements for both players and viewers from home as visibility of marks from shots was to increase thus improving the ability to see line calls. The idea sounds great, however a number of players voiced their concerns over the surface and at the end of the week it had disgruntled more players than it had pleased.
Worryingly for the organisers, the most vocal of the players have been Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the two best players of the past 18 months. For me, when Nadal wins 8 Monte Carlo titles in a row, 7 Barcelona titles, 5 Rome titles and a stunning 6 Roland Garros titles all on clay and then complains about the clay surface at Madrid there is a problem. When the current Wimbledon, US Open and Australian Open champion and 2011 Madrid champion complains about the surface there is a problem. These complaints are worrying for the future of the tournament. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that the decision was made without consulting with the players. It was made without giving the players a chance to test out the surface and give their opinions or even vote on whether they thought it was a necessary change or not. The biggest complaint was of the players not having free movement on the surface. The surface was too thin and gave little grip which was a major problem for players who rely on their movement to dominate their opponents.
The players who seemed to prosper on the blue were the big hitters and all round players such as Del Potro, Berdych, Federer and the players who seemed to falter were those who move well and rely on movement such as Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal had beaten Fernando Verdasco in all of their 13 meetings until last week where he lost in three sets having led 5-2 lead in the deciding set. Djokovic unusually lost to Janko Tipsarevic the day after Nadal lost and both players were heavily critical of the surface in their post match press conferences. The surface seemed to reward the players who were aggressive and had big serves and ground strokes. A perfect example is Tipsarevic against Djokovic. Tipsarevic isn't known as a big hitter but played aggressively and hit 30 winners in the two sets they played.
After his first round match where world number 116 Daniel Gimeno-Traver took a set off him, Djokovic said "I hit five balls throughout the whole match, Everything else I was just trying to put the ball in the court so I just rely on my serve and getting some points eventually from his unforced errors, For me that's not tennis. Either I come up with the football shoes or I invite Chuck Norris to advise me on how I should play on this court." That wasn't the end if his complaints as he went on to say he was not alone in his opinion as other players he had spoken to about it also expressed concerns and slammed the fact players were not being listened to "I know for certain that there are so many players that I talked to these last three or four days that share the same opinion. I take things very seriously regarding the surfaces and regarding our circuit. I think all the players' opinions have to be heard and have to be considered. This tournament and this decision to change to the blue clay is an example of players not being considered and heard and their opinions being ignored so I really hope that this is going to change in the future."
Nadal also expressed his concern over his movement due to the surface "I know what I am saying. I always like playing in Madrid and I try to do as well as possible and that is why I got here early. This surface is totally different to what we are used to. I don't want to risk injury to my hip, it hurts because I continually had to correct myself on court and I will not take risks with my health, so I would rather not come." Nadal echoed Djokovic's cry by saying movement was critical for him also not just on clay but on a tennis court in general and the blue clay didn't provide him with a chance to move well.
I agree with Rafa and Novak on this one. I think it was wrong to introduce the blue without the players having their say on it, not just the top players but all the players. The timing of the change has played havoc with the preparations for the French Open. The timing of Madrid has always been poor in my opinion. If Madrid is to be played on clay and in the Spring/Summer clay court swing then it has to be one of the first tournaments on clay. The altitude makes it so much different for the players and it's very different from the conditions of the French Open. Players get to play in Monte Carlo and Barcelona and Belgrade etc. in conditions similar to that of Paris and then have to go to Madrid and play in different conditions where they have to alter their game. Then players return to the normal conditions when they play in Rome a week before the French Open. It can throw players preparations at the wrong time. Players like Albert Ramos, who was having a great clay court season then lost in Madrid in his first match which could set him back. Nadal had built up a head of steam coming towards the French Open and then lost early which again may cause damage to his preparations. Djokovic will be looking to win the French Open to complete a career grand slam and last week may have dented his chances slightly.
Unfortunately for fans of the Madrid Masters 1000 fans and tennis fans around the world it looks like Nadal and Djokovic have left the organisers with an ultimatum, lose the blue or lose their participation. After losing to Verdasco, Nadal said "The only thing that I know is that if things continue like this I am very sad but next year will be one less tournament in my calendar." Toni Nadal (Rafa's lifelong coach and uncle) gave no indication that he would advise Rafa otherwise, he even said he advised him not to play this year "I told Rafa not to play [Madrid] this year and I hope he doesn't play the next time." That was backed up by Novak after he crashed out to Tipsarevic. I found an interesting article which has part of an interview Djokovic done where he left no stone unturned in his attack on the surface and tournament "I really don't need to meet anybody. There is no discussion in my eyes, it's very simple. No blue clay for me. That's it. The test has failed. This is totally different in the middle of the red clay season. I'm coming here as a defending champion and I have a lot things which are important. If I cannot move and I put this pressure all the time on my muscles and the body and having it in my mind the worry of hopefully not getting injured and making some quick moves because the court is so unpredictable, then really, what's the sense in playing here? This is what it is for 2012, 2013 if they still blue and come up for fluorescent balls, whatever they come up with, they can have their own tournament, but I'm not coming for sure." Now the question is whether or not the tournament will have blue next year. Could they survive without the two best players in the world and two of the main attractions of the game at the moment?
I think this week we can expect Nadal and Djokovic to be at the business end of the Rome Masters 1000. Both players will be out to make a statement after last week's preceedings and prove their ability on the traditional clay. I think we can expect a very good display from both men as they look to get back on track for their preparations and I wouldn't want to be in the firing line of either player. I'd expect both to be in the final despite the talent on show. Federer will have a chance if he can bring his form into this week but I don't think he'll beat either Nadal or Djokovic on the traditional clay. Del Potro could have a big say this week. He's been brilliant on clay so far and a meeting with Djokovic in the quarter finals is on the cards and that would be a huge meeting. I would give Novak the edge though I think he'll beat Federer in the semi finals too, provided Isner doesn't score another win over the Swiss star. Andy Murray faces Nalbandian in the first round and that will certainly test the Scot. I don't see him making the semi finals as players such as Gasquet and a more testing David Ferrer are in his section. I'd expect Ferrer and Nadal to meet in the semi finals but Nadal will be tested along the way by Thomas Berdych but I don't see Nadal losing. A Nadal-Djokovic final is on the cards and I think it would be a fascinating encounter with the French Open just around the corner. Both men will play down the importance of the final but I think both will be looking to win and gain momentum ahead of Roland Garros, Nadal to prove he's conquered the mental barrier and Djokovic to regain his dominance. I'd give a slight nod to Nadal simply because of his clay court prowess and his form in Monte Carlo and Barcelona but it is a very close one to call. I'd certainly watch the action from Rome this week to see the response of players back on the red clay this week and to see how players are performing before the next Grand Slam.
Worryingly for the organisers, the most vocal of the players have been Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the two best players of the past 18 months. For me, when Nadal wins 8 Monte Carlo titles in a row, 7 Barcelona titles, 5 Rome titles and a stunning 6 Roland Garros titles all on clay and then complains about the clay surface at Madrid there is a problem. When the current Wimbledon, US Open and Australian Open champion and 2011 Madrid champion complains about the surface there is a problem. These complaints are worrying for the future of the tournament. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that the decision was made without consulting with the players. It was made without giving the players a chance to test out the surface and give their opinions or even vote on whether they thought it was a necessary change or not. The biggest complaint was of the players not having free movement on the surface. The surface was too thin and gave little grip which was a major problem for players who rely on their movement to dominate their opponents.
The players who seemed to prosper on the blue were the big hitters and all round players such as Del Potro, Berdych, Federer and the players who seemed to falter were those who move well and rely on movement such as Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal had beaten Fernando Verdasco in all of their 13 meetings until last week where he lost in three sets having led 5-2 lead in the deciding set. Djokovic unusually lost to Janko Tipsarevic the day after Nadal lost and both players were heavily critical of the surface in their post match press conferences. The surface seemed to reward the players who were aggressive and had big serves and ground strokes. A perfect example is Tipsarevic against Djokovic. Tipsarevic isn't known as a big hitter but played aggressively and hit 30 winners in the two sets they played.
After his first round match where world number 116 Daniel Gimeno-Traver took a set off him, Djokovic said "I hit five balls throughout the whole match, Everything else I was just trying to put the ball in the court so I just rely on my serve and getting some points eventually from his unforced errors, For me that's not tennis. Either I come up with the football shoes or I invite Chuck Norris to advise me on how I should play on this court." That wasn't the end if his complaints as he went on to say he was not alone in his opinion as other players he had spoken to about it also expressed concerns and slammed the fact players were not being listened to "I know for certain that there are so many players that I talked to these last three or four days that share the same opinion. I take things very seriously regarding the surfaces and regarding our circuit. I think all the players' opinions have to be heard and have to be considered. This tournament and this decision to change to the blue clay is an example of players not being considered and heard and their opinions being ignored so I really hope that this is going to change in the future."
Nadal also expressed his concern over his movement due to the surface "I know what I am saying. I always like playing in Madrid and I try to do as well as possible and that is why I got here early. This surface is totally different to what we are used to. I don't want to risk injury to my hip, it hurts because I continually had to correct myself on court and I will not take risks with my health, so I would rather not come." Nadal echoed Djokovic's cry by saying movement was critical for him also not just on clay but on a tennis court in general and the blue clay didn't provide him with a chance to move well.
I agree with Rafa and Novak on this one. I think it was wrong to introduce the blue without the players having their say on it, not just the top players but all the players. The timing of the change has played havoc with the preparations for the French Open. The timing of Madrid has always been poor in my opinion. If Madrid is to be played on clay and in the Spring/Summer clay court swing then it has to be one of the first tournaments on clay. The altitude makes it so much different for the players and it's very different from the conditions of the French Open. Players get to play in Monte Carlo and Barcelona and Belgrade etc. in conditions similar to that of Paris and then have to go to Madrid and play in different conditions where they have to alter their game. Then players return to the normal conditions when they play in Rome a week before the French Open. It can throw players preparations at the wrong time. Players like Albert Ramos, who was having a great clay court season then lost in Madrid in his first match which could set him back. Nadal had built up a head of steam coming towards the French Open and then lost early which again may cause damage to his preparations. Djokovic will be looking to win the French Open to complete a career grand slam and last week may have dented his chances slightly.
Unfortunately for fans of the Madrid Masters 1000 fans and tennis fans around the world it looks like Nadal and Djokovic have left the organisers with an ultimatum, lose the blue or lose their participation. After losing to Verdasco, Nadal said "The only thing that I know is that if things continue like this I am very sad but next year will be one less tournament in my calendar." Toni Nadal (Rafa's lifelong coach and uncle) gave no indication that he would advise Rafa otherwise, he even said he advised him not to play this year "I told Rafa not to play [Madrid] this year and I hope he doesn't play the next time." That was backed up by Novak after he crashed out to Tipsarevic. I found an interesting article which has part of an interview Djokovic done where he left no stone unturned in his attack on the surface and tournament "I really don't need to meet anybody. There is no discussion in my eyes, it's very simple. No blue clay for me. That's it. The test has failed. This is totally different in the middle of the red clay season. I'm coming here as a defending champion and I have a lot things which are important. If I cannot move and I put this pressure all the time on my muscles and the body and having it in my mind the worry of hopefully not getting injured and making some quick moves because the court is so unpredictable, then really, what's the sense in playing here? This is what it is for 2012, 2013 if they still blue and come up for fluorescent balls, whatever they come up with, they can have their own tournament, but I'm not coming for sure." Now the question is whether or not the tournament will have blue next year. Could they survive without the two best players in the world and two of the main attractions of the game at the moment?
I think this week we can expect Nadal and Djokovic to be at the business end of the Rome Masters 1000. Both players will be out to make a statement after last week's preceedings and prove their ability on the traditional clay. I think we can expect a very good display from both men as they look to get back on track for their preparations and I wouldn't want to be in the firing line of either player. I'd expect both to be in the final despite the talent on show. Federer will have a chance if he can bring his form into this week but I don't think he'll beat either Nadal or Djokovic on the traditional clay. Del Potro could have a big say this week. He's been brilliant on clay so far and a meeting with Djokovic in the quarter finals is on the cards and that would be a huge meeting. I would give Novak the edge though I think he'll beat Federer in the semi finals too, provided Isner doesn't score another win over the Swiss star. Andy Murray faces Nalbandian in the first round and that will certainly test the Scot. I don't see him making the semi finals as players such as Gasquet and a more testing David Ferrer are in his section. I'd expect Ferrer and Nadal to meet in the semi finals but Nadal will be tested along the way by Thomas Berdych but I don't see Nadal losing. A Nadal-Djokovic final is on the cards and I think it would be a fascinating encounter with the French Open just around the corner. Both men will play down the importance of the final but I think both will be looking to win and gain momentum ahead of Roland Garros, Nadal to prove he's conquered the mental barrier and Djokovic to regain his dominance. I'd give a slight nod to Nadal simply because of his clay court prowess and his form in Monte Carlo and Barcelona but it is a very close one to call. I'd certainly watch the action from Rome this week to see the response of players back on the red clay this week and to see how players are performing before the next Grand Slam.
Saturday 5 May 2012
Madrid Masters 1000 Tennis Preview
The Masters 1000 series makes it's fourth stop of the year this week in the Spanish capital of Madrid. In 2009 when the calendar was restructured, this event was changed from indoor hard courts to clay courts and moved from the end of the season to the middle of the clay court campaign. The tournament has always attracted the very best and the last three winners have been Djokovic (against Nadal), Nadal (against Federer) and Federer (against Nadal). If the last three years are anything to go by then we should have a high standard of tennis for the week and a high quality final. The draw was done yesterday and I'm going to take a quick look at the main contenders for the title.
Novak Djokovic makes his first appearance since losing in the final of Monte Carlo to Rafael Nadal a few weeks ago and he takes his place as the top seed in the draw with Nadal at number two. Roger Federer is the third seed and is playing in his first clay court event of the season although he did play for Switzerland against the USA in Davis Cup on clay. World number four Andy Murray withdrew with a back injury and so Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the fourth seed. Without a doubt having looked at the draw this is the most competitive tournament of the year so far, with the exception of the Australian Open which is a grand slam. The other four seeds to receive a bye are David Ferrer (5), Thomas Berdych (6), Janko Tipsarevic (7) and John Isner (8). I think that, although the tournament has got a very high standard and there are lots of players seeded from 8-16 and some very good players unseeded, the winner of this event is likely to be from the top three seeds.
The altitude at Madrid often has an impact on the outcome of the event as players who usually don't have a chance of beating Nadal on clay have more of a chance here although in recent years he has improved significantly in dealing with the tricky conditions. Nadal has to be seen as the favourite for the title here after ending a long title drought by winning in Monte Carlo and following it up with another title in Barcelona. Djokovic as the defending champion is the obvious threat to the Spaniard but he has been paired in Roger Federer's half of the draw and logic would suggest that Nadal will be in the final and will face the winner of a Federer-Djokovic semi final. However, there are plenty of players who can disrupt the plans of the main trio. After suffering from an illness in Monte Carlo David Ferrer returned in style last week in Barcelona to push Nadal all the way in a thrilling final and he will be looking for another good run this week and in my opinion it's going to take either Federer or Djokovic to beat him. Tsonga will be looking to bounce back from his first round loss to a rejuvenated Tommy Haas this week in Munich with a good run here but he faces stiff competition for the right to play in the semi final from Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Aleksandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic who is in the final in Munich tomorrow. Thomas Berdych is in Nadal's section which all but rules out the possibility of him making a semi final appearance. Gilles Simon is a man on a hot streak and he is a dark horse this week and could provide a shock during the course of the week.
I think in terms of winning the title Nadal is the man to beat and I don't see anyone beating him before a final and even at that I don't see Djokovic overturning the result from Monte Carlo and I don't see Federer winning the title in his first clay tournament although he has been a prominent figure in this event in recent years. Most people will assume Federer and Djokovic will meet in the semi finals but I have my doubts. Federer has got a nightmare draw and it will require him stepping straight into top form to make it that far. Dkokovic is likely to have a very tricky quarter final tie against either Gilles Simon or Janko Tipsarevic although I would fancy Albert Ramos to upset Tipsarevic. Simon was outstanding against Rafa Nadal in Monte Carlo and then won the title in Bucharest the week after so he is on good form and he could give Djokovic a scare if he continues that form. Nadal, provided he doesn't suffer a complete shock upset, will have a difficult semi final match up. He could be facing any one of a number of players but giving how brilliant Del Potro has been this week in Estoril I think he will overcome Isner and Tsonga to reach the semi but he will be no match for Nadal on this surface. So I think this week we will see a third title on the bounce for Nadal as he continues his preparations for the French Open and he will assert his dominance over the best the tour has got to offer.
Finally I feel obliged to mention some of the thrilling first round matches that we will see in the opening days of the tournament. Rising star Milos Raonic takes on veteran David Nalbandian in what should be a fascinating match that I think the young Canadian will come through. The winner of that tie is rewarded with a chance to play against Federer. I actually think that Federer will be rusty this week after a few weeks away from the courts and Raonic, who was outstanding in Barcelona especially in dispatching Andy Murray in straight sets, could capitalise on that and score a huge win for himself. I think Kohlschreiber can continue on from his good week this week in Munich to beat Gael Monfils in another big first round match. With the courts seemingly having a low bounce this week the match between Radek Stepanek and Bernard Tomic could be a fascinating encounter as both players have got a wide variety of slices in the arsenal. I think Richard Gasquet will have too much for Thomaz Bellucci in their match and Marin Cilic will beat Spaniard Albert Montanes in a match that has the potential to be a thriller. Djokovic and Federer in particular have been given some very good players in their half and I think at least one of the two will be beaten early on and there will be plenty of upsets this week and it should be fascinating to see how it all plays out.
Novak Djokovic makes his first appearance since losing in the final of Monte Carlo to Rafael Nadal a few weeks ago and he takes his place as the top seed in the draw with Nadal at number two. Roger Federer is the third seed and is playing in his first clay court event of the season although he did play for Switzerland against the USA in Davis Cup on clay. World number four Andy Murray withdrew with a back injury and so Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the fourth seed. Without a doubt having looked at the draw this is the most competitive tournament of the year so far, with the exception of the Australian Open which is a grand slam. The other four seeds to receive a bye are David Ferrer (5), Thomas Berdych (6), Janko Tipsarevic (7) and John Isner (8). I think that, although the tournament has got a very high standard and there are lots of players seeded from 8-16 and some very good players unseeded, the winner of this event is likely to be from the top three seeds.
The altitude at Madrid often has an impact on the outcome of the event as players who usually don't have a chance of beating Nadal on clay have more of a chance here although in recent years he has improved significantly in dealing with the tricky conditions. Nadal has to be seen as the favourite for the title here after ending a long title drought by winning in Monte Carlo and following it up with another title in Barcelona. Djokovic as the defending champion is the obvious threat to the Spaniard but he has been paired in Roger Federer's half of the draw and logic would suggest that Nadal will be in the final and will face the winner of a Federer-Djokovic semi final. However, there are plenty of players who can disrupt the plans of the main trio. After suffering from an illness in Monte Carlo David Ferrer returned in style last week in Barcelona to push Nadal all the way in a thrilling final and he will be looking for another good run this week and in my opinion it's going to take either Federer or Djokovic to beat him. Tsonga will be looking to bounce back from his first round loss to a rejuvenated Tommy Haas this week in Munich with a good run here but he faces stiff competition for the right to play in the semi final from Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Aleksandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic who is in the final in Munich tomorrow. Thomas Berdych is in Nadal's section which all but rules out the possibility of him making a semi final appearance. Gilles Simon is a man on a hot streak and he is a dark horse this week and could provide a shock during the course of the week.
I think in terms of winning the title Nadal is the man to beat and I don't see anyone beating him before a final and even at that I don't see Djokovic overturning the result from Monte Carlo and I don't see Federer winning the title in his first clay tournament although he has been a prominent figure in this event in recent years. Most people will assume Federer and Djokovic will meet in the semi finals but I have my doubts. Federer has got a nightmare draw and it will require him stepping straight into top form to make it that far. Dkokovic is likely to have a very tricky quarter final tie against either Gilles Simon or Janko Tipsarevic although I would fancy Albert Ramos to upset Tipsarevic. Simon was outstanding against Rafa Nadal in Monte Carlo and then won the title in Bucharest the week after so he is on good form and he could give Djokovic a scare if he continues that form. Nadal, provided he doesn't suffer a complete shock upset, will have a difficult semi final match up. He could be facing any one of a number of players but giving how brilliant Del Potro has been this week in Estoril I think he will overcome Isner and Tsonga to reach the semi but he will be no match for Nadal on this surface. So I think this week we will see a third title on the bounce for Nadal as he continues his preparations for the French Open and he will assert his dominance over the best the tour has got to offer.
Finally I feel obliged to mention some of the thrilling first round matches that we will see in the opening days of the tournament. Rising star Milos Raonic takes on veteran David Nalbandian in what should be a fascinating match that I think the young Canadian will come through. The winner of that tie is rewarded with a chance to play against Federer. I actually think that Federer will be rusty this week after a few weeks away from the courts and Raonic, who was outstanding in Barcelona especially in dispatching Andy Murray in straight sets, could capitalise on that and score a huge win for himself. I think Kohlschreiber can continue on from his good week this week in Munich to beat Gael Monfils in another big first round match. With the courts seemingly having a low bounce this week the match between Radek Stepanek and Bernard Tomic could be a fascinating encounter as both players have got a wide variety of slices in the arsenal. I think Richard Gasquet will have too much for Thomaz Bellucci in their match and Marin Cilic will beat Spaniard Albert Montanes in a match that has the potential to be a thriller. Djokovic and Federer in particular have been given some very good players in their half and I think at least one of the two will be beaten early on and there will be plenty of upsets this week and it should be fascinating to see how it all plays out.
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