The first Masters 1000 event of the year takes place this week with all the top players coming together for one of the biggest events of the year. Known as the "fifth major" because of the large size of the draw, this event has got the same atmosphere as the major tournaments. This event is very important for players to gather momentum and a win here is not easy to come by so we can expect some high quality tennis this week. This week is also the first time since Wimbledon that we have Rafa Nadal competing with all the top players in the world. So with a lot at stake this week let's look at who the contenders are.
The obvious choice this week is Novak Djokovic. The man is simply incredible. After a lengthy break following his Australian Open triumph, he returned to action in Dubai last week. For any other player it would have taken a week or two before he reached top gear but Djokovic was simply unstoppable all week. He destroyed the field and picked up another title to remain unbeaten this year. This week he is in Andy Murray's half of the draw which will suit him fine given his record against the Scot in big events. Djokovic went through a tough time after the death of his grandfather but he has recovered admirably and has asserted his clear dominance over Murray and Federer in all meetings since the Summer. It's very hard to look past the Serb this week.
Andy Murray is making his first appearance since losing yet another Aussie Open final. He was outclassed by Djokovic in Melbourne and I see a smilar pattern occuring in the coming months. I don't think Murray has got the game to beat Djokovic consistently and I don't think he's ever proven that he can. He hasn't made the changes in his game that are so clearly necessary. He needs to be more aggressive, plain and simple. It's fine showing aggression in the early rounds against weaker opponents and in the early stages of big matches but when it comes down to the stage in a match when you need to win big points he returns to his defensive game and that won't get it done against the top players. These changes need to come soon or players like Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro will quickly catch up with him. It's hard to know what to expect from Murray this week but I'd be surprised if he reached the semi finals.
Roger Federer has been out of sorts lately but I wouldn't be too worried about that simply because this isn't the time of year Roger needs to peak for. At his age he will realise he can't be at his best all year round and the best period of the season for him is from Wimbledon through to the US Open. Those two majors are still very achievable for Roger and he will want to be at his best for those events. I don't expect Roger to be at his best this week but he will want to win a potential meeting with Rafa Nadal in the quarter finals to halt the Spaniards progress on his return from injury.
What about Rafa Nadal? This week is his first hard court event since this period last year so what can we expect to see from him. This is pretty much a free week for him because there is no pressure and no expectation on him but knowing the Spaniard he will be expecting to win the tournament. The main thing this week is his knee holds up. Once he is allowed free movement and can get through the week with no problems then this will have been another positive week for Nadal. A lot of questions have been asked about Rafa's return and could he return to his best. Well last week proved all the doubters wrong. He was brilliant all week but his win over Ferrer in the final was vintage Rafa. He is hitting his backhand better than he ever was and he demolished probably one of the top three clay courters on the tour. Most people won't expect much from Nadal this week but I think he could have a semi final appearance in him this week.
Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are two players to watch this week. Both have started the year strongly and I expect them both to become a permanent figure at the very top of men's tennis. Berdych has looked very strong in the last few weeks and I think he could have some big wins in the coming months. I expect to see him play very well again this week and I think he will be in the final. Del Potro has got a tricky draw being placed on Djokovic's side but he has shown signs of an ability to go stroke for stroke with the Serb in their last few meetings. The next step for him is to start winning the big points and get a win over him. It could be just one win that gives him the confidence to achieve big things. I think he will beat Murray this week before falling to Djokovic.
Other players who might find the conditions suitable this week include 17th seed Milos Raonic. The Canadian possesses a massive serve that could see him make headway towards the latter stages this week. Similar to John Isner last year he could be one to cause some big upsets along the way. Richard Gasquet has started the year strong but now needs to make an impact on a big tournament like this. Ernests Gulbis has finally started committing to the sport and that could be huge for the tour. He has dedicated himself to stop smoking and drinking and is giving the game a real shot now. He picked up a title last week and could be a surprise contendner this week. Stanislas Wawrinka made massive strides forward since the start of this year and he could be one to make the top ten in the coming months. If he stays fit and continues improving his game then he will be a permanent figure at the top of the sport.
So much can happen over the course of a Masters 1000 event and upsets occur daily. Players like Nadal and Federer are always a threat but I don't see either at a stage where they could win this event. Murray hasn't enough played and hasn't enough to beat Djokovic to win here either. Players such as Del Potro and Berdych are the big threats to Novak this week. They are constantly improving and I expect a strong week from both. But at the end of the week it will be Djokovic lifting yet another title.
