Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray

It's been two incredible weeks of tennis. We've had two weeks of no stop tennis. No rain and no backlog of games. The first Grand Slam of the year has set the bar high for the remainder of the majors after two thrilling weeks. Today we had Victoria Azarenka and Li Na contest the women's final and nobody who sat down to watch the game will have been disappointed. It was such an entertaining game with high quality tennis throughout. So after the ladies put on a show it's now down to the men to close out the tournament in style tomorrow.
          Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have played some thrilling matches in the past and now, for the second consecutive major event, they meet on the biggest stage. Novak is the two time defending champion and has been in sensational form this fortnight. Andy Murray is confident in his game after winning his maiden Grand Slam at the US Open, where he beat Djokovic in the final. That win is the reason the bookmakers and most pundits believe this game is up for grabs and will be close. The conditions that day were a huge factor because the winds were extremely high and the one thing Djokovic struggles with is wind. Wind makes it difficult to keep playing pure tennis and Andy has always liked playing in tough conditions because he is a defensive player. Players who use a lot of slice and play with plenty of margin for error will always prosper in the wind. On Rod Laver Arena, the wind is not an issue because the stadium is so compact so the winner tomorrow will have to earn the win with their shot making.
         This is the reason that Novak is the clear favourite for me. He is a far superior shot maker and in big matches between these two that is the reason that the Serb has prevailed more often than not. Murray is improving his game and can compete with the big three on a more consistent basis now but there are still too many weaknesses in both his game and mentality for him to be considered on the same level as Djokovic, Federer or Nadal. He has become a more aggressive player in the past six months but we are still seeing times when he reverts back to his passive game and the sooner he overcomes that the sooner he can realise his full potential. A win tomorrow over Novak will go a long way to making him a permanent figure in major finals.
          So what does Andy need to do to overcome the Serb? The first thing he has to do is be aggressive. If he tries to play passive and wait for Novak to make errors then this game will be over very quick. He has to play from the baseline and go for his shots and dictate the rallies. His forehand has to be a weapon tomorrow. When the game got close in the second and fourth set against Federer his forehand was a liability. If his forehand is anything but perfect tomorrow he won't survive. The next thing is his mentality. He can take confidence from beating Federer but he has to keep his feet on the ground. Let's be realistic, Federer was below par and rumours from Melbourne suggest he was suffering from a back problem since his match with Tsonga. Take nothing away from Murray he was clinical and played the best he ever has against Roger but he has to look at it as a small step towards breaking the stranglehold the top three have on the game.
          His attitude was poor at times on Friday, that has to change. He became passive way too often when the game was close and that's not the way to beat Djokovic. He's got to take the big points in his stride and dictate the outcome himself. Put the game on your racquet. If you miss the shot or your opponent comes up with a great winner then you put your hands up and say too good, but you have to be in control of the point. That's what Nadal, Federer and Djokovic do and that's why they are the best. Murray has a great chance to join them tomorrow.
         The biggest problem for Murray tomorrow will be his serve. His serve was a major factor on Friday but when times got tough his second serve became a liability. There was too much spin and not enough pace or placement. When he serves well he is tough to beat but we have yet to see Murray come up with the goods on serve in a big game. If he can get a high percentage of first serves tomorrow I think he has a great chance. When looking at the stats look at the unforced errors and winners columns. If Murray has a high number of both then he will be close. That will indicate an aggressive style. For Murray to win he needs to serve i high percentage, stay aggressive and have the right mentality.
          For Djokovic, he needs to stay playing the way he has been. Stanislas Wawrinka played absolutely sensational tennis last Sunday but Djokovic stood firm and came through it. Tomas Berdych was a potential threat but Djokovic brushed him aside in style. David Ferrer is a world class player and was playing some of the best tennis of his career but Novak was simply breathtaking in that semi final. He simply blew his opponent away and the scary part was that Ferrer played so well. Anybody else would have lost after an hour with the way Djokovic was hitting but Ferrer asked him questions time after time but he always had the answers. His ground strokes have been a major weapon this fortnight. He's play is reminiscent of the form he had in 2011.
            He is serving well too. He never even gave Wawrinka a chance to break him in the fifth set. He is so mentally strong and always remains the aggressor which makes playing him a nightmare. He is so relaxed around the place the last few days that everything seems second nature to him. He arrived for his press conference today with a koala clipped to his jacket and cracked jokes about he and Murray's childhood. His big statement from that press conference was that he is ready. He is over the loss of the US Open final but he remembers the pain of losing a major final and he doesn't want to go through that again.
          So who will win the first major of the year? This match is massive for a number of reasons. It's the final Grand Slam where we don't have Rafa and his return will make it more difficult to win majors. For Djokovic he knows the the entire tour will be more intense with Rafa back and he will want to send the Spaniard a message with a convincing win here. For Murray he knows how good those two were last year and in 2011 and he will want to win this slam to give him the confidence to challenge those two. The clear conditions make this match all about the tennis and for that reason the logical choice is Novak Djokovic. He is by far the best player in the world right now and should win another major tomorrow to join Andre Agassi on four Australian Open titles.
          He simply has too much tennis for the Scot and their last two meetings show he has the mental edge over Murray. In their last two meetings Murray won the first set before Djokovic showed his class to win through. He even saved five match points in Shanghai which for me was the turning point in his game. He has been unstoppable since then and I'm tipping him to show his class tomorrow and win this one in four sets.