Wednesday 27 June 2012

Wimbledon Day 4 Selections

It's been a great week so far at SW19 and the quality of tennis is improving as each day passes. So far we've seen some of the main contenders of both draws eliminated as Thomas Berdych was beaten in round one while Sam Stosus and Caroline Wozniacki were also beaten early. Tomorrow is sure to provide us with some more top matches and possibly provide some more major upsets. I'm going to take a look at some of the games taking place and give my predictions for each match. To start I'm going to go through some of the schedule and talk about who is due to play and then I'll discuss some matches individually in detail.
          On Centre Court we have three matches to be decided as Serena Williams, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal all return to court for their second round encounters. Williams faces Hungarian Melinda Czink in what should be a relatively straight forward game for the former champion. Williams returned to Grand Slam tennis in style with a comfortable win over Barbora Zahlavova Strycova having lost in the first round of her last major in Paris. Following that match home favourite Andy Murray takes on big serving Ivo Karlovic in what could be a tricky game for the Scot. If the 6'10 Croat serves a high percentage of first serves then he will be tough to break down but Murray is a strong returner of serve and will fancy himself to make it through. Second seed Rafael Nadal then takes to the court against Lukas Rosol in what should be a one sided contest. Rosol doesn't contain enough variety to trouble Nadal and it should be an easier task than his encounter with Bellucci on Tuesday. On Court 1 we have some very competitive matches beginning with Maria Sharapova who is looking to finish off her match with Tsvetana Pironkova leading 7-6 3-1 from tonight. Sharapova saved 5 set points in the first set as Pironkova looked to have control but couldn't close it out. If Pironkova can get a good start tomorrow then I wouldn't rule out her chances of coming back but a good start is essential. Sharapova needs to start off quick herself to close it out and hit the practice courts to prepare for Friday. James Ward takes on Mardy Fish afterwards in a match which Ward should be totally outclassed by the American who has had some health scares in recent months. Sam Querrey and Milos Raonic square off third on Court 1 in a battle of the big hitters. Querrey is rediscovering his form in recent months and I think he is in for a good Summer when he reaches the American hard courts but for Wimbledon his run ends tomorrow. Raonic has a huge serve that is proving very effective on the grass and he also possesses all the qualities that Querrey doesn't have. Raonic should progress from this war of attrition. Home girl Elena Baltacha faces a monumental task to reach round three as she takes on defending champion Petra Kvitova. Kvitova started sluggish in her opening game but she recovered sufficiently and found her range by the end and I think she will dispose of Baltacha ruthlessly. Other women who should be successful are Victoria Azarenka who faces Romina Oprandi and Marion Bartoli who takes on Mirjana Lucic. On the men's side we should see wins for Andy Roddick against Bjorn Phau, David Ferrer against Kenny De Schepper and Phillip Kohlschreiber against Malek Jaziri.
        Some of the best matches of tomorrow will take place on the show courts where there are games which are almost too close to call. One match I think everyone should watch is the opening game on Court 9 where Finn Jarkko Nieminen faces American comeback sensation Brian Baker. Baker spent over five years out of the game with injuries and had to have multiple surgeries and feared he would never get to play again. However, last year he got back on the court ad began a long process which led him to an incredible return to action where he has had some good success. Having qualified for his first Wimbledon he is in round two with a great chance to make it through to a fourth round meeting with Rafael Nadal. Nieminen is a solid player that won't give you the game you have to earn it. He played some good tennis on the clay this year and had a great win over Feliciano Lopez in round one. I think Baker will be the winner of this one after a gruelling encounter but certainly one worth watching.
          Another match that should be of high quality is on Court 12 where stylish Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis takes on Queens semi finalist Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov was always compared to Roger Federer but never lived up to the hype while Baghdatis made a Grand Slam final in Australia losing to the great Federer. Dimitrov has been steadily improving this season in my opinion and I think his game looks very good on the grass. This match is very difficult to call as Baghdatis has got great ability which has seen him play well here in the past but Dimitrov is young and determined and is playing with a sense of freedom which makes him a joy to watch. I am giving a slight nod to Dimitrov in this one but it will be close, possibly five sets.
          Varvara Lepchenko and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova face off on Court 17 in a match which contains two talented women capable of big things. Lepchenko has improved significantly since gaining American citizenship last year and had a stunning run at Roland Garros reaching round four and will be hoping for similar results here at Wimbledon. Pavlyuchenkova is a talented youngster who needs to begin fulfilling her potential. She has played well this season but has lost to a lot of the top players. Her last two tournaments have been more consistent than normal for her which is a step in the right direction and I think she is capable of making a very good run here. This one should be a very entertaining match and I expect Pavlyuchenkova to get through in three sets.
          Court 18 plays host another high quality match as Ekaterina Makarova looks to continue her goo grass court form against German Angelique Kerber. Makarova has been outstanding this year with a quarter final run at the Australian Open and lenghty runs in Miami and Sydney before reaching the semi finals in Birmingham and the quarter final in Eastbourne where she lost to Kerber. Kerber herself is on an amazing run. She has risen up the rankings dramatically in the past twelve months and now sits inside the top ten. This season she has reached four semi finals and won two titles in Paris and Copenhagen and was a finalist in Eastbourne. During that time she's beaten Sharapova, Bartoli, Kvitova, Venus Williams, Wozniacki, Jankovic and Li all of whom are top class players. Kerber is pushing towards the summit of the sport and I expect her to progress to another quarter final at least here. Makarova will be a stiff test but one which she should pass with flying colours.
          So that's a look at some of the matches taking place tomorrow and it's clear to see there is a lot to look forward to.

Bet of the Day: David Goffin to beat Jesse Levine at 4/9 is my bet of the day for Thursday. Goffin is a talented young Belgian that should have too much for Levine. This game just beats the price for Mardy Fish to beat James Ward. Fish was apparently sick after his win Tuesday which is turning me off backing him but 1/3 is very generous.

Accumulator of the Day: Brian Baker (vs Nieminen), Gilles Simon (vs Malisse), Angelique Kerber (vs Makarova) and Aleksandr Dolgopolov (vs Paire) all to win works out around 5/1.

Potential Upset of the Day: Francesca Schiavone to be beaten by Kristyna Pliskova is currently 7/4. The Italian looks very beatable on the grass and I think Pliskova might upset the odds.
              
        

Monday 25 June 2012

Wimbledon- Day 1 Picks

With Wimbledon starting tomorrow I'm going to give my predictions for the first day's action. On Centre Court tomorrow we have three matches as Novak Djokovic, Maria Sharapova and Thomas Berdych open their accounts. Djokovic faces Juan Carlos Ferrero in what should be an entertaining match. Ferrero has the ability to beat Novak but I think at his age he won't have it in him to win three sets. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a set but if not I expect three very tight sets going to Djokovic. Sharapova should be a convincing winner in her match with Rodionova and I expect Berdych to beat Gulbis. Gulbis has got ability but Berdych has taken too much of a step forward to go backwards now. Court 1 looks to be a very interesting schedule with Nalbandian and Tipsarevic opening up before Federer takes on Albert Ramos. Kim Clijsters and Jelena Jankovic are the last game on court. I would expect Federer and Clijsters to win their matches but the other game is tough. Nalbandian may be unseeded but he is very capable of beating Tipsarevic. I would gove a slight nod to Nalbandian to win it to try make up for his disqualification at Queens. Another court worth watching is Court 2 where Radwanska and Venus Williams should both open their campaigns with wins. Stakhovsky is one who might beat the 28th seed Stepanek and young Olly Golding will fancy his chances of beating Igor Andreev which would be a major shock.
            In terms of betting the only real way to make money is with accumulators and they can be tricky to get right. The odds for the top players are very short so often it takes up to 15 players to make a worthwhile accum. Tomorrow I think there might be value in the matches taking place.Of the best value odds tomorrow there are a few I would look at. Fabio Fognini has been in good form in recent weeks and he is 7/4 to beat Michael Llodra tomorrow which is a very good bet. Nalbandian is 11/10 to beat Tipsarevic tomorrow also with the Serb at 4/6. With some bookies refunding losing 5th set bets both of those matches are worth a bet. Gilles Muller has played well here before and is evens to beat Benneteau which for me is terrific value. Ryan Harrison is just 4/6 to beat Yen Hsun Lu which is great odds to me, I think Harrison will win that one comfortably. A nice four part bet of Harrison, Muller, Clijsters and Stakhovsky pays around 11/1 which might be worth a small bet. A more safe bet would be to include the bigger names and the best I could find out of those would be Djokovic, Sharapova, Berdych, Federer, Gasquet, Verdasco, Radwanska, McHale, Isner, Kirilenko, Petzschner, Mahut, Venus Williams, Li and Stosur pays out around 3/1 which is a very good price and I think is a safe bet.
          For some more value I think the closer matches are the ones to watch. Picking three or four close matches will pay better price than picking fifteen certain matches. Flavio Cipolla, Tsvetana Pironkova, Melanie Oudin, Petra Cetkovska, Andrea Seppi and Steve Darcis as a six part accumulator pays around 7/1 which again is a very nice price.
          So those are some of my tips for tomorrow's matches. As the day goes on keep an eye on my facebook page where I will be giving some individual match betting tips. Also anybody who wants to give their opinions on the matches feel free to post them on the page which can be found at Facebook.com/AmateurSportsJournalism. Good luck with the tips.

Wimbledon Preview- Women's Contenders

With the women's game I think we have a very open tournament with up to 12 players having a genuine chance of winning the title. I'm going to look at the main contenders that I would be looking for.
         Maria Sharapova is the obvious choice and no wonder. She picked up her first French Open title and completed her career Grand Slam in doing so. Although she is playing some great tennis she wasn't tested in winning the French and I still haven't been convinced her second serve will hold up under pressure. It didn't here at Wimbledon last year. I actually don't think she will go too far in Wimbledon. I'm particularly liking her second round opponent Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova has been brilliant at the Championships the last two years in reaching the semi final and quarter finals beating Venus Williams both years. She recently destroyed Agnieszka Radwanska in her first grass court game of the year. It's the big hitters she enjoys playing as her results will show. She's beaten players such as Kerber, Petrova and Li this year which proves her talent. I think she can beat Sharapova and progress far in the tournament yet again. If Sharapova does win that one then I think she has the ability to go all the way provided she serves well.
         Serena Williams is another obvious choice with her Wimbledon record. I think she's coming to the end of her career now and we won't see much more of her at the highest level. She seems to be losing the drive she had in previous years. Having said that she certainly cannot be ruled out. She has the best grass court game of them all and won't fear anyone. The problem will come from players who can get her moving as she won't have the fitness to go three gruelling sets with players for two weeks. After her shock first round exit at the French Open she will be out to prove she still has it here and we should see some of the best of Williams early on. Whether she can win the title remains to be seen.
         Victoria Azarenka is coming in to this looking to add to her Australian Open title. She was disappointing in Paris but I'm sure we'll see a much improved performance from her. She is a very talented player that is hitting her best form this year. I've seen her crush the very best this year and I think if she plays at her best nobody will stop her winning the title here. She bullied Sharapova around the court already this year and has done the same to many other top players. I like her chances of at least making semi finals. Having won a Grand Slam already she won't let her nerves get the better of her and I wouldn't be surprised to see her win the tournament out.
       Agnieszka Radwanska is another player looking at a long run here. She hasn't won a major yet and will fancy her chances of doing so this year. She plays good solid tennis and is able to hit with the very best. She needs to go a step further and beat some of the top players at the Grand Slams. If she gets a few big wins under her belt at this tournament she will have the self belief to win. I don't think she will win the tournament but she could go deep into the second week.
          Defending champion Petra Kvitova has got real chances of winning the title again. She plays brilliantly here and on her game is a handful for anyone. Her serve is often the key and she wins a lot of cheap games with it. I don't see anyone that can safely believe they can beat her. She is my favourite to win the title as long as she keeps playing the sort of tennis we've come to expect from her.
         The real dark horse for the title for me is Kim Clijsters. She is playing in her last Wimbledon and is looking to win it for the first time to complete her career slam. It would be nice to see her complete it as she has worked so hard at adapting to the modern game since her return and the amount of commitment she has put into the game. If she plays her best here then I think she can go all the way. At her best not many of the players today could keep up with her. I hope we see her give a very good showing in her final appearance here before retiring after the US Open this year.
          Other players looking for a run here and very capable of it are Ana Ivanovic, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki and Na Li but I'm not sure how far any of those could go. Players who could actually go far are Angeliqe Kerber and Dominika Cibulkova who both have had good seasons but I don't know how could they can be on the grass. Kerber is in the top five players of the season and could be dangerous here too if she transfers that form over to the grass.
         It's difficult to predict who will win with the high quality of players and the unpredictability of the women's game. I'm almost certain we will see upsets in the women's draw every day and that will add to the excitement of the fortnight. I look forward to seeing the draw unfold and just which players will emerge throughout the fortnight as the contenders and which players will surprise everyone in making the breakthrough.   
       

Sunday 24 June 2012

Wimbledon Preview- Men's Contenders

It's that time of year again as we prepare for the lush green courts of Wimbledon for the 126th edition of the Championships. Monday sees the beginning of the main draw of both the men's and women's singles as players battle it out for the third Grand Slam of the year. This year looks set to be one of the most exciting years of tennis with the Olympics taking place a few weeks after the end of the Championships making this the longest grass court season of the open era.  As part of my preview I'm going to look at ten players from the men's draw and ten from the women's draw that will be looking to make a huge impact. So my first post is starting with the men's singles so let's look at those players now.
          1.  Novak Djokovic. The Serbian comes into Wimbledon with his world ranking under threat for the first time since last year's event having lost at the French Open to Rafael Nadal. As defending champion Novak will have the honour of opening proceedings on centre court on Monday as he looks to regain control of his rivalry with Nadal. Djokovic won the title last year in impressive style and his flat shots will be tough to beat on the grass courts. Novak isn't unbeatable on these courts though. If players can dominate their serve and play aggressively then they have a chance to take sets off him. The problem is they can't take three out of five. Djokovic will be anxious to get another victory over Rafa but to do so he has to make the final here. With Nadal having won three of their last meetings it's important for the sake of their competitive rivalry that Djokovic steps up and improve his game, just like Nadal did to finally get over Novak. I think Djokovic is good enough to adapt but the question is how does he do it? It will be interesting to watch how he tries to achieve his success here. Djokovic is certainly one of the main contenders for the title here.
          2. Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard is looking to return to the top of the rankings and regain his Wimbledon crown and he certainly has momentum on his side. After picking up his seventh French Open crown he is closing in on Federer's Grand Slam record. Nadal has adapted his game to cope with Djokovic's dominance last year and it's worked wonders for him. He looked better than ever on the clay and is now even more difficult to beat. Nadal lost in Halle to Kohlschreiber but I wouldn't read too much into it. It was very soon after his Roland Garros crown and he wouldn't have been at his best. The few days of rest he took back home will have helped him recover and he should be fully prepared for Wimbledon. It would be a massive victory for Nadal if he were to win the title here but he faces major competition with a number of players looking at possible success here. Nadal is right up there with Djokovic as the main contender for the crown.
         3. Roger Federer. Roger is coming into this event having lost in the final of Halle to veteran Tommy Haas which was a minor blip in his preparations. I expect Roger to be playing with a real freedom here as his main goal this Summer is on winning the gold at the Olympics which is also on grass. So Roger will be playing himself into top form here and won't be putting as much pressure on himself which might make him even more dangerous. Roger hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open and that's too long for a player with his talent and desire. The problem with the Swiss star is I don't think he has the two big games required to win majors anymore. Those big games are against Nadal and Djokovic successively. This tournament might be his best and possibly last remaining chance to do so. I think Roger is very dangerous here and is definitely third favourite if not joint favourite with Novak and Rafa.
          4. Thomas Berdych. This is a guy that has improved dramatically over the past few seasons. He is now a danger at all tournament to all players. He is fully established as a top 10 player and I expect him to go one step further and break into the top five. We used to have the top four dominating all tournaments but we don't have that anymore and it's because of players like Berdych that the game has evolved and become more competitive. Thomas is a tall man with a big serve and carries a powerful forehand that will worry the very best. I expect Berdych to at least make another Grand Slam final in his career having done so already here at Wimbledon. Whether or not he can go a step further and win a major is another question but he is one of the players that deserves one for the progression and desire he has shown throughout his career. Nobody will want to face the Czech star during this tournament and I think he might be a dark horse.
         5. Marin Cilic. Not many people will see this man as a threat but I really think he might be in for a big tournament. Cilic looked like he was on the verge of breaking through a couple of seasons ago but he fell away but he is now starting to play more like the player we saw win seven ATP titles and reach the semi final of the 2010 Australian Open. The past few months has seen him return to some form with a final appearance in Munich and win the title in Queens club albeit in controversial circumstances. Cilic has a big serve and some huge ground strokes and if he fully utilises his power he might just make a good run at this tournament and make a mark on the Grand Slam stage again, like we know he can. I don't think he can win Wimbledon but he has the ability to go into the second week.
        6.  Milos Raonic. It's no secret that this is a guy I really like and I'm certain that he will win multiple Grand Slams. Since bursting on to the scene last year he has jumped right up the rankings and by the end of the season I expect him to be in the top 10. So far this season he's beaten Andy Murray and he's pushed Federer very close on three occasions. It's only a matter of time before he causes some big shocks at the Grand Slams. A fourth round meeting with Murray is likely here and that's a chance for him to have a big win over a top five player over five sets. He has a monstrous serve and some very impressive ground strokes and he great movement for a man of his height. Wimbledon will suit him perfectly and it's tough to see how players can break him down on this surface without playing outstanding. Federer beat him 7-6 in the third in Halle and I think Roger won't want to play him too often more this season. I think Raonic has the potential to go deep into the second week and I hope he does his talent justice and shows the world what he can do.
          7. John Isner. This man has some wonderful memories of Wimbledon having won the longest match in tennis history here against Nicolas Mahut a few years back. This year he comes in slightly under the radar with no competitive practice leading into Wimbledon. I think the American is in for a massive tournament. He was outstanding in the first few months of the year beating Djokovic and Federer in Davis Cup action and during the American hard court swing. Unfortunately for John the clay court season came up next and he lost a bit of his momentum. I think Isner might finally be ready to make the step up and go deep into a Grand Slam tournament. With his power he should be right at home on the grass and I expect him to cause one or two shocks along the way even if he isn't quite ready to win Wimbledon. John has a potential rematch with Mahut in round two but if he can get through that (quickly this time) then he can go very far. I'm looking forward to seeing John's progress over the next few months starting with a good run at Wimbledon.
         8. Juan Martin Del Potro. This man should have been in the French Open semi final. He was robbed by injury against Federer having been two sets up before struggling with his knee injury which finally caught up with him. If he's fully recovered now then he will be looking forward to Wimbledon. Nobody ever puts pressure on Delpo here. He's often written off because of his poor movement on the surface but with the shot making ability he has he can compensate for it. We saw him compete with Rafa last year until he got injured and that's enough for me to believe he has the potential to go deep here too. Were still waiting for Delpo to make his mark on the tour again and this year has been a big step for him. Nobody could doubt he has the talent but it's a question of whether he has the appetite to and desire to push on and establish himself at the top of the game again. I think he will win more majors and maybe he will win Wimbledon at some stage but not this year, this year is about going as far as he can and building on that in the coming months.
          9. Mardy Fish. This guy has had some shocking results this year and won't expected to do much at all here. However, I'm confident he can play some good tennis here and rediscover the sort of form that saw him make it to the top ten. He plays a nice brand of serve and volley tennis which could see him upset a few players. He takes time away from players and it's tough to know when he's coming in and when he's staying back which leaves constant doubt in opponents mind. The main reason I'm picking him is because I can't see him being beaten in the fist three rounds as I don't think the players he faces early are capable of beating him here, with the possible exception of Bernard Tomic. He can build up some momentum before a fourth round clash with Tsonga or Wawrinka which he would be more than capable of winning. This could go either way, he could flop and lose early again or he could do what I think is more likely and that's have a good run here before heading on to his favoured American hard courts.
          10. Tommy Haas. The German is back yet again at Wimbledon on the back of a great run of tournaments. At 34 he still manages to motivate himself to play at such a high level. He may be getting older but his talent is just as prominent as it was a decade ago. Watching him in Halle two weeks ago will have reminded everyone of how dangerous he is. A stunning run of wins over Berdych, Kohlschreiber (who had beaten Nadal, and who he meets in the first round here) and then a magnificent final win over Federer saw him lift his 13th tour title. After winning in Halle a few years back beating Djokovic that time he went on to have his best run at Wimbledon. This year he would face Nadal in round three but I don't think Haas can be ruled out of that one. He could very easily upset the Spaniard if he plays at the level he has shown lately. This season has been a good one for Haas as he moves ever closer to 500 wins on tour and he has already beaten plays such as Tsonga, Baghdatis, Tomic and Granollers. I think we'll see a good performance from Haas and possibly a few upsets along the way.
          So there the ten players I've picked to watch out for at Wimbledon and I'm sure we'll see the winner come out of that group. Other top players who might have good runs but I don't think will threaten the top players could be Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet. I don't see any of those coming close to winning the title but they might have a few good wins to show for their efforts. I think this year will be a very exciting tournament with a number of strong contenders. We can expect to see some very high quality tennis and some brilliant matches and I'm sure many upsets in the next fortnight.