We are more than half way through the clay court campaign and this week we will be the last time we see the top players before they head to Paris for the second major of the year. At this stage of the season it seems that Rafa and Novak have picked up from where they left off last year when they were dominating grand slams before Rafa's injury. Novak scored a massive win in Monte Carlo where he interrupted Rafa's eight year reign in the principality but Nadal has come back strongly taking to titles in the last three weeks including the Masters 1000 title in Madrid. So can either of them get the win this week to take all the momentum to Roland Garros? Let's look at how the two can expected to perform this week.
Rafa Nadal has arguably been the best player on the tour this season. Since his comeback from a seven month lay off he has been in the final of every event he's taken part in and won five titles including two Masters 1000 titles. He leads the field in tour wins which is remarkable considering he didn't play until late February. He wasn't at his best for much of last week but we can attribute that to the altitude which usually causes him problems but his performance in the final was stunning. I expect him to beat Ferrer in this week's quarter final and set up a possible mouth watering clash with Djokovic in the semi finals.
Djokovic himself has been imperious this season. Winning the Australian Open and Monte Carlo crowns have been the highlights but a recent ankle injury has slightly hampered his form. A loss early to Grigor Dimitrov last week was out of character for the Serb but the extra time off will have allowed him more time to acclimatise himself with surroundings in Rome and be in top shape for this week. The draw hasn't been kind to him but that doesn't worry me and I think he will get over the in form Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych on his way to a semi finals.
Andy Murray has talked a good game lately but now is the time to show his true qualities. A few years back he lacked a lot of the qualities needed to reach the top. Now he lacks just one. Aggression. We see it at times playing lesser opponents on hard courts but when it really matters he is too passive. This makes no sense because when he plays aggressive he is right up there with Novak and Rafa. On clay he is way too defensive. Nobody wins the French Open slicing the ball more than they hit top spin. He got what was coming to him against Wawrinka in Monte Carlo and he paid for his lack of competitive playing time when Berdych beat him last week. The draw this week gives him a golden opportunity to reach his first clay court final but can he take advantage of it?
Roger Federer suffered an early loss to Kei Nishikori last week while trying to defend his Madrid title and needs a good week here to be considered a contender in Paris. Federer has taken a long break until now and will be hoping to be in top shape heading into the Summer where there are a lot of tournaments there for the taking, especially Wimbledon and the US Open. I think Roger will be in trouble all week here because there is danger in almost every round and for that reason I don't see him winning the title here.
There are three players in the field this week that I think can have huge seasons. At the start of the season I believed Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro could be potential grand slam winners and I still think that. Both are playing some exceptional tennis this year and have the ability to compete with the very best at the best events especially Wimbledon and the US Open. Another man has joined them. Stanislas Wawrinka has been at his very best this season and made a big statement last week showing he can compete on clay too with a superb run to the final of Madrid.
All three have a chance to further their season with wins this week. Unfortunately for Wawrinka and Berdych they will have to do it the hard way to win this week being placed in Djokovic and Nadal's half but Del Potro has a real chance. He could face Murray in a quarter final and Federer in a semi final and I would expect him to win both of those matches. The problem for him could be an early meeting with Nicolas Almagro who might be able to spring a surprise. Almagro himself is capable of reaching a semi final or final this week but consistency can be a problem for the Spaniard.
Grigor Dimitrov has pushed Nadal close on clay and beaten Djokovic so could he challenge for the title this week? I don't think so. I've seen him have good weeks before and follow it up with early exits and I think we will again this week. I think Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be a relatively surprising finalist this week. Clay has never been his strongest surface but he can still beat a lot of players on the dirt. I would give him a real chance of getting to a final this week.
Outside of those players mentioned I don't see anybody else winning this week. The winner will come from the top half semi final battle. I think Nadal and Djokovic will meet this week and battle it out for crucial momentum ahead of Roland Garros. The conditions favour Nadal in the sense that it will play as a traditional clay court with a bit of wind. However, the arena suits Novak. There isn't as much room for defending at the back of the court and that will allow Djokovic play aggressively and get quick points. I think the semi final meeting between these two will be sensational but I think Rafa will come through a tight three set match. In the final he could meet anyone but I'm going to say Del Potro defies his lack of recent match practice to make a final appearance.
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