Andy Murray is the favourite to reach the final and many feel the favourite for the title. Much has been made of his form so far throughout the fortnight and it's hard to argue with his results. Murray might have come through unscathed without dropping a set but being realistic he didn't face any real competition. Robin Haase? Joao Sousa? Ricardas Berankis? They aren't exactly household names. Gilles Simon was injured and suffering from fatigue after three long matches and so he didn't provide much resistance, while Jeremy Chardy will be the easiest opponent Murray will ever face in a Grand Slam quarter final. The positive side? He made short work of all of those players. He could have got caught going into fourth or fifth sets but he maintained his level throughout and remained focused to avoid unnecessary longevity in his matches. Against Simon he looked average against a man that could barely walk, let alone run but he was very impressive against Chardy. The French man could have been dangerous but Murray didn't give him time and never allowed him find rhythm on his forehand. So he is finding some good form heading into this meeting but he is going to face a completely different challenge tomorrow.
Roger Federer is a man on a mission. He has been ruled out by so many and all the talk of Djokovic and Murray being the two best will have hurt him but it could have been the best thing for Roger too. There is nothing more dangerous than a man like Roger Federer being told he won't win something. Look at the history. They said he won't ever win the French Open, he went on and won it. He won't win another Grand Slam or reach number one again, he cruised past Murray and Djokovic to win Wimbledon last year and reach number one again. He is still an incredible player and aside from Nadal he has got the measure of every player at every Grand Slam. He's got wins over Djokovic in the past year or two and has never lost to Murray in a Grand Slam event. Federer has been written off so much in this event that there is no pressure on him. The pressure is very much on the Scot.
Roger had the toughest draw and I think he got through it even easier than Murray got through his easy draw. Benoit Paire was a tough opening round draw and he won it easy. Nikolay Davydenko was the form man coming in here and he never had a chance. Bernard Tomic was all mouth before his clash with Roger and he was taught a lesson. Milos Raonic was more graceful in his approach to Federer,showing him complete respect, but Federer showed him no mercy as he crushed the rising Canadian. The quarter final was even more impressive. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who finally competed with a top player again) was playing incredible tennis and he had chances but once it got to a fifth set Federer moved up a gear and he was sublime in that deciding set. Roger is playing some sensational tennis right now and with the speed of the courts he will fancy his chances over the weekend.
Their last meeting was in London at the World Tour Finals where after a slow start Federer gave Murray a tennis masterclass. Murray is looking more aggressive since last year but it's easy be aggressive against lesser opponents and when your winning. What happens when he faces a top opponent who puts him under pressure? Well let's look at last year when on a number of occasions he went back to his passive game. At the French Open David Ferrer broke him down and forced him back on the defensive. Federer done it at Wimbledon. Raonic done it in Tokyo. Janowicz done it in Paris and Djokovic and Federer done it again in the World Finals. The reason they were able to force him on the defensive is because Murray hasn't solved his second serve problems. His second serve is shocking for a player of his ability. When players be aggressive and attack his second serve then he has to take pace off his first and suddenly you've got a chance in all of his service games.
So what can Murray do to counter this? For me he has to place his first serves better and stop trying to hit the 130mph serve every time. If he places his first serve better then he won't be under as much pressure and can try to impose himself on the game. In the rallies I think Murray has to play on the baseline or he has no chance. If you allow Roger stand on the baseline you will not win, he has too many shots and too many angles. I expect Federer to use a wide range of shots from the beginning tomorrow. He will toy with Murray's mind and show him a different look on all his returns. The key to this match up will be the serve and if Federer serves like he has done so far then there is only one winner. His placement and variety has been incredible. Tsonga only won so many games because he guessed right and took a swing. Murray doesn't have the aggression to do that and he knows if he finds himself guessing too much against Federer he won't win.
Don't be surprised to see Murray serve and volley a lot tomorrow to earn some cheap points on serve and I see him coming in off some returns to throw Federer off. I think this game is on the racquet of Federer. He knows how to beat Murray over five sets and he has all the weapons in his arsenal to hurt Murray. If Federer wins tomorrow there will be a number of pundits eating their words with so many of them having banked on a Murray-Djokovic final and Roger being pushed to the side. If Roger wins this event then I think it will be the greatest Grand Slam win of his career. Roger won't be too confident of winning more majors when Nadal comes back and so I don't see him passing up a chance to beat Murray and giving himself a shot at another major title. I'm giving the edge to Federer in four sets.
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