Where to begin with this one. Two gladiators of the game. By far the two best movers on the tennis court right now and we have two men who will go deep into a fifth set with the same intensity and the same hunger. These men never know when they are beaten and it's that mentality that wins them so many matches. How many times did Nicolas Almagro look like beating Ferrer last night? And how many other players on the tour could withstand the punishment Stan Wawrinka was dishing out on Sunday?
These two have played 36 sets and 28 out of them were decided either in a tie break or by one break of serve. That shows just how close these two are on the court. The difference is Djokovic's shot making. He has more to offer than Ferrer in ability and that's the difference on the big points. This match will be filled with long and entertaining rallies and the crowd will certainly get their money's worth. Their head to head record isn't as one sided as you might think either with Novak leading nine wins to five. They met here last year in the quarter finals and Djokovic came through two tough sets before winning the third with ease. Ferrer does have a hard court win over Novak to his name. At the 2011 World Finals (just before Djokovic took over the game) he beat him 6-3 6-1 just days after giving Andy Murray a similar beating. So Ferrer is capable of playing the sort of tennis that can trouble Djokovic.
For Novak, he knows he is going to be in a real battle in this game but he also knows he is the better tennis player. He won't outlast Ferrer in this game but he can outplay him. The sets will be tight and it will come down to who can hold their own serve more consistently and who can take their opportunities. Djokovic was sensational against Wawrinka. Everyone will talk about Stan's performance and he deserves the plaudits but Djokovic played incredible to win that one. He didn't give Wawrinka half a chance of breaking him in the deciding set and it's that resolve that makes him the favourite for the title. He will have to hit through David tonight and come in from the baseline if he's to avoid this going deep into the night and tactically he's good enough and intelligent enough on the court to pick his moments.
For David, he will need to play his best ever tennis if he's to get through this. He can rally all day with Novak band find some success but the answer for me is to come in. He's got to be the aggressor or he will be beaten. Berdych was outplayed from the baseline in the first set against Novak and then approached the net consistently in the second set and found joy before going back to the baseline in the third. It made no sense tactically. Ferrer will be more clued in to what's happening and what's working for him. I'd give him a chance of taking at least one set if he plays aggressively but you've got to think Djokovic will be the one to advance.
Strangely I do think that Ferrer would win a major if he could reach the final but it's beating Djokovic or Federer at this stage, in the semi finals, that he will always struggle with. If he did advance I think he would push Roger all the way before falling but he could beat Murray. He has the confidence against Murray, he's beaten him five times before and he's won two of their last three meetings. Djokovic won't fear anyone. He will feel he would have beaten Murray in New York if the conditions weren't bordering on dangerous and apart from that match he beats Murray when it matters. Federer and Djokovic have played some epic Grand Slam matches in the past and who wouldn't like to see that one again? I think that's the way this Aussie Open is heading, a Djokovic-Federer final.
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