At the top of the men's draw sits a man looking to become the first in the open era to win three Australian Open titles in a row. Novak Djokovic, the winner of the longest final in history last year, is the top seed this year and the favourite to regain the title. He hasn't played an official tour event yet this year but did take part in the Hopman Cup and an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi where he looked in impressive form. If he is on form throughout the fortnight then it's hard to look past him. He could face a stiff challenge from Scotland's Andy Murray who finally won his first Grand Slam last year in New York. Murray was on top form during the Summer when he won the Olympics and US Open but Djokovic regained control of their rivalry in the final months of the season with two impressive victories over him. Winning that major title was an impressive leap forward for Murray but not because of his play. It was his mental strength that won him the title. The conditions were atrocious in New York over the final three days but Murray didn't let it affect him. Djokovic struggled. Berdych struggled. Murray prospered. If that happened at any other time in Murray's career he would have fallen apart but he showed great strength to win the title. The only question left with Murray is: Can he beat two of the big three in succession to win a major title?
He may be 31 years of age but Roger Federer is a man you write off at your peril. He showed that in London last year when he cruised past Andy Murray in the semi finals of the World Finals and then pushed Djokovic all the way in a thrilling final. He still has the hunger and desire to win more Grand Slams and when he is at his best he can still beat the best, as we saw at Wimbledon last year when he beat Djokovic and Murray with minimum fuss. Any man who has lifted 17 major titles has to be considered a major threat in these competitions but looking at his draw you would have to say he is up against it. He could potentially face Paire, Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic and Tsonga all in a row and that is before meeting Murray or Del Potro in the semis. If he does manage to get through to win this title then I think it will be his greatest Grand Slam title, given the difficulty he faces. I think he has a shot but the important question is how effective will he be having had no match yet this year?
David Ferrer has done everything in the game but win a major. He finallly won a Masters 1000 event last year in Paris but he has never been to a major final. I think everyone would like to see him lift a major title but whether he has the ability to beat the best I'm not convinced. In recent years he has started pushing the top four hard in majors, he even beat Murray at the French Open last year but that was expected given it was on clay. He has played some great tennis so far this year and has just won the title in Auckland so he will be confident. I think he will go far and if he can find his best game on the biggest stage then he might be capable of upsetting Djokovic in the semi finals but it will have to something special for him to win the title here. Does he have that something special in him? We'll have to wait and see.
Fifth seed Tomas Berdych has one of those that can beat anybody on his day but it was his mentality that left him down. That's not the case anymore. He has been brilliant in the last year or two. Since reaching the Wimbledon final in 2010 he has improved dramatically. People forget he is still only 27 and I get the feeling this might be his time. As Pat Cash said "Every dog has his day" and I think Berdych is at a point in his career where he needs to step it up and start bringing consistency to his game in Grand Slams. I still can't believe he didn't beat Murray in New York. He was sensational in the first set but he let the wind get into his head and handed Murray the initiative. This fortnight could be the biggest in his career. He has a potential quarter final against Djokovic and if he can get through that then he will be a strong favourite to reach the final. Does he have the mentality to back up his power game?
Sometimes we see players make a huge run in a Grand Slam and never reach the same levels again. It's happened in Melbourne a few times. Marcos Baghdatis in 2006 and Fernando Gonzalez in 2007 are examples. This is not the case with Juan Martin Del Potro. He won the US Open in 2009 but hasn't been to a major final since. A big reason for that was his wrist injury which set him back over a year. Only last year did we start seeing him return to his best. When he won that title in 2009 it looked like he was going to dominate the game. I think he still has the potential to win more slams. He should have beaten Federer at the French Open last year but he got injured at two sets up but he has recovered again. He lost a classic to Federer at the Olympics and lost to Djokovic at the US Open which there is no shame in. He became the first players to beat Federer twice in a year indoors last year and I think he is for a great 2013. Will that result in a Grand Slam title? I think so, but the question is will it be here in Melbourne? Time will tell.
Richard Gasquet has always had the talent but lacked the mentality and commitment to really excel. Since employing Ricardo Piatti as his coach that hasn't been the case. He is showing consistency and desire that we have never seen before. He was breathtaking in Doha but not entirely for his shot making. We always knew he had the shots but the way he fought back from losing positions in two matches was great to see. If he continues showing that hunger then he becomes a threat in Grand Slams but winning one will require another step up mentally and another step up in his game. Tommy Haas may be a veteran but he is not finished competing at the top of the game. He has been well rested coming into this event after losing early last week and I'm sure he has done the work necessary to get himself into shape for this major. This has always been his best Grand Slam and he has had good results in the past here. If he gets a run going then he will be tough to stop and he will relish the chance to upset some big names.
A man that seems to always leave me down in big events when I talk him up is Milos Raonic. He has so much talent and is so strong mentally he has to eventually step up and perform in a major. He has beaten Murray. He has run Federer into final set tie breaks but he loses to players that he should be beating. In Melbourne, under the heat he will have a huge advantage over a lot of players. His serve and powerful forehand will allow him to end points quickly and that ability is your best friend in the heat. I hope he gets through to that meeting with Federer and play his best tennis and prove himself on the biggest stage, even if he loses the match it will serve him well for the remainder of the season.
This year there are so many dangerous players in the draw that it is tough to predict further than first round or two. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is always dangerous and has reached the final here before but I think he has to show us what he can do on the big stage or he will find himself becoming less and less of a figure in the latter stages of tournaments. Martin Klizan had a great year last year but can he repeat it this season? A good run here would go a long way to helping him rise through the rankings. What about Jerzy Janowicz? He has come from sleeping in his car on the Challenger Tour last year to seeded for a major. He beat five top twenty players in a row in Paris and that can't be ignored. He has a huge serve and a monstrous forehand and I think he might enjoy the conditions here. How effective will he be this season? We might get a better idea of how far he can go this week. Two players showing good form who I think are worth watching this week are Stanislas Wawrinka and Nicolas Almagro, although I think they are just short of making a semi final appearance.
Two young players I think could be outside threats are Bernard Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov. Tomic just won his first title on the tour this week in Sydney and hasn't been beaten this year. He beat Haas and Djokovic in Perth and had some good wins this week so he might just be a threat to Federer in round three, especially with the home crowd. Dimitrov started the year with a run to the final in Brisbane and that's on top of a great year where he rose through the rankings and I think he could make a good run here and be a danger for the entire season. Finally two veterans of the game that have shown form lately. Nikolay Davydenko was at the top of his game in Doha where he reached the final before injury prevented him competing in the third set of the final. If he plays like that this week then he could upset Federer in round two. Lleyton Hewitt has a tough opener against Janko Tipsarevic but he showed in the Kooyong Classic this week that he can still beat the best. He rolled back the years to beat Raonic, Berdych and Del Potro en route to the title and he was in really good form. His match with Tipsarevic has marathon written all over it but for the winner they have a chance to make a good run.
There are no certainties in tennis anymore but I can guarantee that this years Aussie Open will be thrilling and full of high quality play and plenty of upsets. For daily updates over the fortnight check out my facebook page, Dean O'Mahoney's Sports Journalism.
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