Saturday 26 January 2013

Australian Open Women's Final

It's been great, it's been entertaining and tomorrow it will have been over. The first women's Grand Slam event of the year is almost over with just one more match to go, the final. It wasn't the final many expected with the vast majority of people expecting Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova to be contesting the final. Although that would have been an exciting match, we now have a fascinating encounter between the defending champion Victoria Azarenka and the in form Chinese woman, Li Na.
          Li Na has been a revelation this year so far after bringing Carlos Rodriguez to her team a few months back. The former coach of Justine Henin has worked wonders for Li, who was suffering from a lack of motivation last year. The big improvement from her has been her serve. She's now consistently making first serves and her second serve is now so much better than previous years. She beat two in form players in Agnieszka Radwanska and Maria Sharapova and now has Vika in her sights. She made the final here in 2011 so it won't be a new experience for her so she won't have those first time nerves. She's won the French Open before too so she knows what it takes to win it and she knows time is running out for her to add to her major collection.
            Vika's preparation for the final has been interrupted by the bad press she is receiving for her medical time out against Sloane Stephens. At 5-4 up in the second set, just after wasting match points and losing her serve, she took ten minutes off the court and when she returned she broke Stephens to win the match. The fans and the experts have slaughtered her for it but, for me, she's receiving unwarranted criticism. In her on court interview she made things worse for herself when she misunderstood a question and came across as saying she took the time off because she was nervous but she thought she was being asked about her closing out the game, not her health. Reports suggests she was asked by the doctors to leave the court for treatment and it was not the idea of Azarenka to leave the court. She has admitted that the timing was poor but she didn't think she could wait any longer. It isn't Azarenka who deserves criticism but the rules which allowed it happen.
           So will that have an effect on Vika in the final? I think it will but in a positive way. She knows going on the court that the crowd will turn on her in a flash if she shows negative emotions on the court. She will focus completely on her tennis tomorrow and try to defend her title and in the process remain the world number one. To do so, she will have to serve well and keep Li Na away from the baseline. I would expect she will want to extend the rallies and try to dictate. She is fitter and has got youth on her side so the longer it goes on she will feel more and more confident of winning.
          Li might be stronger mentally since Rodriguez took over but you've got to feel that when it gets tough she could struggle. She struggled to close out matches last year and that could be a problem tomorrow despite the influence of her new coach. Any solution Rodriguez has come up with must be only temporary, otherwise he would be employed as a psychologist. When she is really tested, and I expect she will be by Vika tomorrow, it will be fascinating to see how she copes. It's a close one to call and I've spent quite some time mulling over the outcome of this one.
           Before this tournament started I went for Azarenka to win it and I have a rule of never changing my mind mid-tournament so I am going for Vika. I think Li has got a great chance to really assert herself in the women's game in the coming months. If she wins here she will be full of confidence heading into the American hard court season and the clay court season. Even if she loses her game is going to go from strength to strength in the coming months with the influence of Carlos Rodriguez. This one could go to three sets but I fancy Azarenka to get the job done.  



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