This week the ATP tour has got three 250 events for us to enjoy. After the quality on show in Barcelona and Bucharest we can only hope that this week provides the same entertainment. I'm going to take a quick look at the possible contenders of these tournaments before giving my opinion on who is going to win the title. Starting with Belgrade and after Novak Djokovic pulled out last week Pablo Andujar becomes the top seed and he has a great chance of justifying that rank. He is in form and since the switch to clay he has already added a title to his name. He has a few potentially tricky matches early on with names like Volandri and Hanescu hanging around but I think he will make a semi final where he will face either Fognini or Nieminen. Fognini is in form and made the final in Bucharest last week and I think he will make the semi final here this week. Andujar is probably going to be a step too far for him and I expect the Spaniard to make the final here, providing he negotiates his second round match with Volandri who can be dangerous. David Nalbandian is the stand out name in the bottom half of the draw. Ryan Harrison and Andreas Seppi are also seeded in that section but I don't think Harrison will be going far but Seppi has a real chance. Nalbandian may not be physically ready for a long run here but a semi final appearance against Seppi isn't beyind the realms of possibility. I think the winner will be from the quartet of Seppi, Nalbandian, Andujar and Fognini. I'm going to give Andujar a slight preference to the other simply because of his form and he has already won a clay title in the past month.
Munich is the venue for the second tournament and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the top seed there. He's in a tricky section with talented players like Falla, Cilic, Baghdatis, Youzhny and Haas but he should be able to dispose of whichever combination of those players he faces. A second round match up with hometown favourite Tommy Haas would be a difficult match and a possible stumbling block for Tsonga but should he progress I think he will be in a final. 2nd seed Feliciano Lopez will be looking to build on his good week last week and put behind him his failure to capitalise on match points against Ferrer in Barcelona. Lopez could go very far here but players like Tomic, Davydenko and Kohlschreiber could cause problems. I think Tomic is still developing on clay and both Davydenko and Kohlschreiber aren't playing well and so Lopez might have a shot at making the final. I think we might have a Tsonga-Lopez final and I just feel like Lopez might just win his first ever tour title. Other players that might be able to reach a final or even win the tournament are Starace and Stebe who if they could win their first match or two might just go far but I think their too inconsistent to do so. Tsonga and Lopez are the two I would be looking at with a slight nod towards Lopez.
Estoril has attracted some big names this week, none more so than Juan Martin Del Potro. The top seeded Argentine is the man to beat this week as he looks to begin his clay court campaign with a successful week here. I don't see an early loss for him but a semi final against Wawrinka would be very interesting. I think both those men will make the semis unless Robin Haase can continue his good form and even improve on it to cause an upset here. I fancy Del Potro to overcome Wawrinka in a semi final to reach a final. The bottom half of the draw contains some very interesting names. 2nd seed Richard Gasquet will be looking to get something going for himself as he continues to show signs of returning to the form that had him scouted as a future number one many many years ago. This week should bring a semi final for him which would be a huge confidence boost for him. Cipolla is a dangerous quarter final opponent but he's been slightly off lately so I think Gasquet will be able to beat him. Paul-Henri Mathieu continues his return to the tour and has a tricky opener against Istomin but I expect him to pull through but I don't see him going further than Albert Ramos in the quarters. Ramos and Gasquet in a semi would be an intriguing contest but Ramos' superior clay court skills would prove to much against the Frenchman unless Gasquet plays his very best. I think Del Potro and Ramos is a potential final match up and I expect Del Potro to pick up a title as he continues to try to return to the top of the game. I would watch out for Wawrinka and Gasquet though as both have plenty of ability but I don't see them putting it together consistently for a full week. I'd also watch Federico Gil who is capable of big things on clay and especially in his home tournament.
This should be a good week of tennis as players prepare for the Madrid Masters next week and further down the line Roland Garros. At the end of the week I'm giving Del Potro, Lopez and Andujar my vote for the titles.
Sunday, 29 April 2012
Sunday, 22 April 2012
Barcelona and Bucharest Tennis
So I've decided to take a quick look at this week's tennis tournaments in both Barcelona and Bucharest. Barcelona has got a very strong field which includes defending champion and the now eight time Monte Carlo Masters champion Rafael Nadal. Nadal won the title last year and also five times from 2005-2009 while in 2010 he didn't take part. I could try to make a case for how there are a few players who could win this title but truthfully it's all in Rafa's hands. He's just crushed Novak Djokovic for the loss of just four games in Monte Carlo and he comes into this event full of confidence and I fully expect him to win the title again. World number four Andy Murray is also in the field and will be looking to improve on his poor record here where he has only won a match once before. I don't see Murray doing that well this week. I think his tactics last week were awful and very negative. He just rallied side to side with opponents he should be beating comfortable and when he came up against Berdych he looked lost. Berdych destroyed Murray in the final two sets and unless we see some drastic changes then he could lose early here too. A quarter final with Nicolas Almagro could be the point where he could be horribly exposed. Robin Haase and Milos Raonic are also in that section and would both be capable of taking him down. David Ferrer was shocked last week in his first game and so he will surely be back in top form this week in his native country where he has lost in the final to Nadal three times. Ferrer should be the man to make the final from the bottom half but he won't have a chance against Nadal in the final. So this should be the easiest tournament for me to pick the winner of and it has to be Nadal.
Bucharest is the venue for the second tournament this week where Gilles Simon is the top seed. The standard isn't very high this week in my opinion and there are only a handful of players I would look at. 5th seed Marcos Baghdatis is making his debut here and deserves a mention although I don't think he could put enough good performances together to win the title. Defending champion Florian Mayer will have title aspirations again but I think his form hasn't been good enough to warrant a real threat. Three Italians in the field are also worth a mention. All three have clay court credentials and if they get a run going could find themselves in the semi finals or even final. Those players are Filippo Volandri, Fabio Fognini and Andreas Seppi. I'd watch them carefully but for me the main man this week is Simon. He was outstanding last week in Monte Carlo and was incredible against Nadal. He should carry that form into this week and win his third title here.
You can get odds of about 1/3 for Nadal to win the title in Barcelona which is almost a certain bet with Andy Murray at 7/1 and Ferrer at 8 if their the ones your interested in. Gilles Simon is about 6/4 or 5/2 to win the title in Bucharest which is very good value and a double containing Nadal and Simon is 3/1 with some bookmakers and that is the best value bet for the week.
Bucharest is the venue for the second tournament this week where Gilles Simon is the top seed. The standard isn't very high this week in my opinion and there are only a handful of players I would look at. 5th seed Marcos Baghdatis is making his debut here and deserves a mention although I don't think he could put enough good performances together to win the title. Defending champion Florian Mayer will have title aspirations again but I think his form hasn't been good enough to warrant a real threat. Three Italians in the field are also worth a mention. All three have clay court credentials and if they get a run going could find themselves in the semi finals or even final. Those players are Filippo Volandri, Fabio Fognini and Andreas Seppi. I'd watch them carefully but for me the main man this week is Simon. He was outstanding last week in Monte Carlo and was incredible against Nadal. He should carry that form into this week and win his third title here.
You can get odds of about 1/3 for Nadal to win the title in Barcelona which is almost a certain bet with Andy Murray at 7/1 and Ferrer at 8 if their the ones your interested in. Gilles Simon is about 6/4 or 5/2 to win the title in Bucharest which is very good value and a double containing Nadal and Simon is 3/1 with some bookmakers and that is the best value bet for the week.
Saturday, 21 April 2012
Can Nadal beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo?
Sunday will see Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal come face to face for the 31st time in the Monte Carlo Masters final. Djokovic is looking to continue his recent success against the Spaniard having won their past seven matches which all came in finals and have all been last season and at this seasons Australian Open. This is their first meeting since their epic Australian Open final which lasted almost six hours. Both players have made solid starts to their clay court seasons and both will be desperate to win the first big clay title of the year. Nadal leads the head to head 16-14 and of those 16 wins 11 were in straight sets. Since his last win over Djokovic (2010 World Finals) it's been the rise of Djokovic rather than the fall of Nadal that has contributed to the Serb's success.
Both players had first round byes and therefore didn't start their campaigns until Wednesday. Djokovic opened with a straightforward 6-1 6-4 win over Andreas Seppi while Nadal overcame a spirited Jarkko Nieminen 6-4 6-3. Thursday proved to be a tough day for Novak as just before he stepped on to court he was informed of the death of his grandfather. He mind was clearly elsewhere as he laboured to victory over Aleksandr Dolgopolov. Rafa was ruthless in his destruction of Mikhail Kukushkin on the same day with a 6-1 6-1 win. The quarter finals threw up tricky ties for the top two but Djokovic set the ball rolling with a very convincing win over Robin Haase 6-4 6-2. Nadal beat Stanislas Wawrinka 7-5 6-4 in what was a stern test of the Spaniards game. That put both players into today's semi finals and Djokovic was first up and he took on an in form Thomas Berdych. Things weren't looking good for the Serb when he lost the first set 6-4 but he recovered superbly to take the final two 6-3 6-2 to make tomorrow's final. Nadal then knew only Gilles Simon stood between him and a rematch with Novak. Simon played what was certainly the best clay court match I've ever seen him play and the match was a lot closer than the scoreline suggested as Nadal worked very hard for his 6-3 6-4 win.
So that brings us to the final tomorrow. Monte Carlo has been a fortress for Rafa for the past seven years as nobody has managed to beat him and he's only lost 6 sets in that time. Djokovic tomorrow is certainly going to be the toughest test of that reign and if he overcomes it then he will take huge confidence into the remainder of the season. Djokovic, on the other hand, also has a lot to gain from tomorrow. He needs to keep the mental hold he has had over Nadal going and continue his dominance. He beat Nadal on clay in Madrid and more impressively Rome last year but this would surpass both. Nadal had been beaten in Madrid a few times before and had been beaten in Rome by Ferrero before but nobody beats Nadal in Monte Carlo. This would be a huge mental blow for Nadal and a major confidence boost for Djokovic.
The Australian Open final could prove a turning point in this head to head. Nadal hadn't really come close to beating Djokovic in the six previous meetings. At Wimbledon and the US Open Djokovic won in four sets. Nadal lost the first two and then won the third but lost the fourth easily on both occasions. At the Australian Open everything was different. Nadal came out fast and won the first before Djokovic won the next two easy. He somehow then won the fourth in a tie break and managed to get 4-2 up in the final set. He had it won, he had finally beaten Djokovic but he missed a routine mid-court backhand and that allowed Novak to break back and go on to take the match. That final was the first time that Nadal had stood up and rallied with Djokovic and actually looked like he could hit through Djokovic. He was finally able to step up to the mark and compete with Novak. It was the first time that it was his own mistakes rather than Djokovic's dominance that cost him the match. The reason Nadal was so competitive was his better percentages on break points saved and his efficiency in taking break point opportunities. He also increased the power of his ground strokes by adding lead to the frame of his racquet and he improved the depth of his shots which was crucial. These changes allowed him to step up into the court and rally with Djokovic.
With tomorrow's meeting being on clay Nadal is likely to employ similar tactics. The Spaniards second serve is where he is losing out heavily against the Serb. Djokovic is picking apart his second serve and getting the first shot into the rally every time which gives him a huge advantage. On clay Nadal should be much better at protecting his second serve and if he can do it well enough he will have a great chance. What I would like to see Nadal try tomorrow is start hitting his backhand with more power in the opening 3 or 4 games and try to match Djokovic shot for shot. Djokovic is ridiculously good at generating pace off both wings and Nadal seems to hit his backhand with lots of spin and less power against him. Djokovic will target Nadals backhand if he find he is in trouble in a rally and he will know he can beat Nadal when they rally from Djokovic's forehand to Nadal's backhand. That's why Nadal needs to flatten it out and give Novak something to think about off both sides. Nadal needs to be aggressive on Djokovic's serve and needs to get the first shot into the rally as often as he can, even if this means being aggressive off his backhand side on the return. This will allow him to dictate points with his forehand and if starts hitting consecutive shots in a row with his forehand on clay then nobody can beat him, not even Djokovic. Nadal had been hitting his first serve a bit harder this week yet had also been getting very good percentage This could be crucial tomorrow, if he serves 70% then his second serve is being protected and he will be more secure on serve.
Djokovic has used his flat powerful shots to breakdown Nadal but I don't see it being as effective tomorrow. I think Nadal is playing well this week and is defending exceptionally well and he only needs a half chance to turn a defensive situation into an attacking one and that's important on clay. Nadal is patient enough and experienced enough to wait for his chances and he won't panic if things don't start well for him. Surely he will be fired up for this one and he won't want to lose to the same man again and he won't want to surrender his crown in Monte Carlo. Nadal must beat Djokovic soon and for me tomorrow is the day. He has to have learnt from Melbourne what works and what doesn't and he know's now what it takes to beat the Serb. However, it won't be easy for him. He'll need to play at his best and he'll need to play the big points well and if he manages to play the way he wants then he will beat Djokovic. Djokovic will be looking to end a difficult week for him with a title but unfortunately for him I don't see it happening. So can Nadal beat Djokovic? Yes he can and what better place for him to than in Monte Carlo.
Both players had first round byes and therefore didn't start their campaigns until Wednesday. Djokovic opened with a straightforward 6-1 6-4 win over Andreas Seppi while Nadal overcame a spirited Jarkko Nieminen 6-4 6-3. Thursday proved to be a tough day for Novak as just before he stepped on to court he was informed of the death of his grandfather. He mind was clearly elsewhere as he laboured to victory over Aleksandr Dolgopolov. Rafa was ruthless in his destruction of Mikhail Kukushkin on the same day with a 6-1 6-1 win. The quarter finals threw up tricky ties for the top two but Djokovic set the ball rolling with a very convincing win over Robin Haase 6-4 6-2. Nadal beat Stanislas Wawrinka 7-5 6-4 in what was a stern test of the Spaniards game. That put both players into today's semi finals and Djokovic was first up and he took on an in form Thomas Berdych. Things weren't looking good for the Serb when he lost the first set 6-4 but he recovered superbly to take the final two 6-3 6-2 to make tomorrow's final. Nadal then knew only Gilles Simon stood between him and a rematch with Novak. Simon played what was certainly the best clay court match I've ever seen him play and the match was a lot closer than the scoreline suggested as Nadal worked very hard for his 6-3 6-4 win.
So that brings us to the final tomorrow. Monte Carlo has been a fortress for Rafa for the past seven years as nobody has managed to beat him and he's only lost 6 sets in that time. Djokovic tomorrow is certainly going to be the toughest test of that reign and if he overcomes it then he will take huge confidence into the remainder of the season. Djokovic, on the other hand, also has a lot to gain from tomorrow. He needs to keep the mental hold he has had over Nadal going and continue his dominance. He beat Nadal on clay in Madrid and more impressively Rome last year but this would surpass both. Nadal had been beaten in Madrid a few times before and had been beaten in Rome by Ferrero before but nobody beats Nadal in Monte Carlo. This would be a huge mental blow for Nadal and a major confidence boost for Djokovic.
The Australian Open final could prove a turning point in this head to head. Nadal hadn't really come close to beating Djokovic in the six previous meetings. At Wimbledon and the US Open Djokovic won in four sets. Nadal lost the first two and then won the third but lost the fourth easily on both occasions. At the Australian Open everything was different. Nadal came out fast and won the first before Djokovic won the next two easy. He somehow then won the fourth in a tie break and managed to get 4-2 up in the final set. He had it won, he had finally beaten Djokovic but he missed a routine mid-court backhand and that allowed Novak to break back and go on to take the match. That final was the first time that Nadal had stood up and rallied with Djokovic and actually looked like he could hit through Djokovic. He was finally able to step up to the mark and compete with Novak. It was the first time that it was his own mistakes rather than Djokovic's dominance that cost him the match. The reason Nadal was so competitive was his better percentages on break points saved and his efficiency in taking break point opportunities. He also increased the power of his ground strokes by adding lead to the frame of his racquet and he improved the depth of his shots which was crucial. These changes allowed him to step up into the court and rally with Djokovic.
With tomorrow's meeting being on clay Nadal is likely to employ similar tactics. The Spaniards second serve is where he is losing out heavily against the Serb. Djokovic is picking apart his second serve and getting the first shot into the rally every time which gives him a huge advantage. On clay Nadal should be much better at protecting his second serve and if he can do it well enough he will have a great chance. What I would like to see Nadal try tomorrow is start hitting his backhand with more power in the opening 3 or 4 games and try to match Djokovic shot for shot. Djokovic is ridiculously good at generating pace off both wings and Nadal seems to hit his backhand with lots of spin and less power against him. Djokovic will target Nadals backhand if he find he is in trouble in a rally and he will know he can beat Nadal when they rally from Djokovic's forehand to Nadal's backhand. That's why Nadal needs to flatten it out and give Novak something to think about off both sides. Nadal needs to be aggressive on Djokovic's serve and needs to get the first shot into the rally as often as he can, even if this means being aggressive off his backhand side on the return. This will allow him to dictate points with his forehand and if starts hitting consecutive shots in a row with his forehand on clay then nobody can beat him, not even Djokovic. Nadal had been hitting his first serve a bit harder this week yet had also been getting very good percentage This could be crucial tomorrow, if he serves 70% then his second serve is being protected and he will be more secure on serve.
Djokovic has used his flat powerful shots to breakdown Nadal but I don't see it being as effective tomorrow. I think Nadal is playing well this week and is defending exceptionally well and he only needs a half chance to turn a defensive situation into an attacking one and that's important on clay. Nadal is patient enough and experienced enough to wait for his chances and he won't panic if things don't start well for him. Surely he will be fired up for this one and he won't want to lose to the same man again and he won't want to surrender his crown in Monte Carlo. Nadal must beat Djokovic soon and for me tomorrow is the day. He has to have learnt from Melbourne what works and what doesn't and he know's now what it takes to beat the Serb. However, it won't be easy for him. He'll need to play at his best and he'll need to play the big points well and if he manages to play the way he wants then he will beat Djokovic. Djokovic will be looking to end a difficult week for him with a title but unfortunately for him I don't see it happening. So can Nadal beat Djokovic? Yes he can and what better place for him to than in Monte Carlo.
Sunday, 15 April 2012
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters Tennis
This week (starting today) the third Masters 1000 event of the year takes place in Monte-Carlo. Monte-Carlo has held an annual event on the tour since 1897 breaking only during both World Wars. Since 2009 it's become the only Masters event that is not mandatory for the players. Despite this the event still attracts the very best the tour has to offer. Since 2005 the clay court event has been dominated by one man but this year his reign will face it's toughest test yet.
Rafael Nadal comes into this event looking for a stunning 8th consecutive title here having only ever lost here once, way back in 2003 when he lost to Guillermo Coria. This year he comes in having suffered seven consecutive losses in finals to Novak Djokovic, the most recent in the epic Australian Open final. Djokovic missed last years event due to injury and Nadal went on to win the title yet again, beating David Ferrer in the final. This year both players are in the field and it seems could be on a collision course to meet in the final. For Djokovic, taking Nadal's crown here would be great preparation for the French Open which Djokovic will also be looking to take from the Spaniard. Also in the field this year is world number four Andy Murray who looks set to have another good clay court season and will be looking to begin with a good week here. Spaniard David Ferrer, last years beaten finalist is also back this year as is 2010 beaten finalist Fernando Verdasco.
The singles draw this year was made by Gilles Simon and he placed third seed Andy Murray in the same half as number one seed Novak Djokovic while placing himself into second seed Rafael Nadal's half. Also in Nadal's half is the fourth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic will begin his quest for the title with a tie against the winner of Andreas Seppi and Victor Hanescu which I would expect to be Seppi. In the third round the Serb would be seeded to face Aleksandr Dolgopolov but I don't think Dolgopolov will beat Juan Ignacio Chela in his opening match and Bernard Tomic faces the winner of that match so Djokovic could face any one of three players in my opinion, Tomic, Dolgopolov or Chela, I would fancy Chela to get through. A quarter final tie is likely to be against Spaniard David Ferrer although Argentine Juan Monaco could have something to say about that. Ferrer has been in scintillating form this year and already has three titles to his name this season. Monaco has just won in Houston and I would fully expect Ferrer and Monaco to meet in the third round and Ferrer should be just too good and will go on to meet Djokovic. Djokovic has beaten Ferrer a few times this year but Ferrer has run him close a few times and the fact that it's now on clay will suit him more and he might fancy an upset. Djokovic should have just enough to progress from that match though and should make the semi final from that quarter.
In the second quarter Andy Murray will open against Victor Troicki after Troicki won on the opening Sunday against Jean-Rene Lisnard. Murray shouldn' have any problems in that one but a third round tie with Marcel Granollers would test the Scot's clay court credentials. Granollers would have to overcome Julien Benneteau and probably Jurgen Melzer to make it to that meeting but I think he should and although probably a better clay courter than Murray, Murray should have too much quality for him. Who Murray faces in the quarter finals is tough to say. Thomas Berdych is seeded to meet him but I would have my doubts over the Czech's clay form. I think it might take him a few matches to find his rhythm and he could be suspect to an early upset. His first match will be against Simone Bolelli or Marin Cilic and although both have ability I don't think either will beat him. His third round game is where he could be beaten. Kei Nishikori is the seed in that section but he faces Albert Ramos in his opener and I think Ramos will beat him, especially since Ramos has been playing well lately and he just made the final in Casablanca. Ramos will beat Paul Henri Mathieu in the second round I think as I expect Mathieu to beat Donald Young in his opener. Mathieu is currently returning to the tour after a lengthy lay off through injury and I think he will have a successful comeback but Ramos will be too good for him here. Ramos is the man for me to beat Berdych if anyone is to upset him. The winner of the Ramos Berdych clash will likely face Murray in the quarter finals and both have the ability to beat Murray it's a matter of whether they play their best against him or not. To beat Murray they will have to be very aggressive and attack the second serve and with this being his first event on clay Murray may be there for the taking.
In the third quarter ninth seed Gilles Simon is already into the second round after beating Benjamin Balleret in his first match and he will face either Federico Gil or Mikhail Youzhny. Gil, being the natural clay courter might just win that one but Simon will be a step too far for either of those two. The third round opponent for Simon is likely to be seventh seed Janko Tipsarevic. For me it depends on how Milos Raonic performs on clay. If he has a good start and beats Albert Montanes then he could give Tipsarevic a tough game. If he can take his power game and make the transition from hard court to clay court then I think he will be tough for anyone to beat and could beat Tipsarevic and go on to face Simon. Simon Tipsarevic or Raonic will face either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Fernando Verdasco in the quarter finals. For me Verdasco and Tsonga will certainly meet in the third round and I think Tsonga will win through this quarter if he plays well but watch out for Verdasco, he is well capable of beating Tsonga and whoever he meets in the quarter final. Verdasco has the potential to be one of the best clay courters but the mentality isn't there to get any sort of consistency but he does tend to be brilliant every now and again so watch for his performance this week.
The final quarter is where we find Rafael Nadal. Nadal is playing his first event since pulling out in Miami before his semi final due to a knee injury. If the trouble in his knees comes back to the extent of 2009 then he could be in for a very difficult year. Hopefully he has recovered substantially to be at his best at the event he has made his own over the years. His first match will be against Radek Stepanek or Jarkko Nieminen and Stepanek should win that but won't give Nadal any problems in round two. A third round tie with Florian Mayer is the seeded route but Filippo Volandri has got the game to beat Mayer is he has the right mentality here and I'm going to say Volandri will face Nadal in round three. Nadal should overcome that obstacle with ease and reach the quarter finals. There he could face fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro who has been playing well this season and will relish the return to clay. He could face Carlos Berlocq in round two and although Berlocq is a tricky customer Almagro should be too good. Feliciano Lopez and Stanislas Wawrinka meet in round one and I expect Wawrinka to win that one. The winner of that will face Pablo Andujar, who is fresh from winning the title in Casablanca today. Andujar is a player in form after bringing Djokovic to three sets in Indian Wells on hard courts a few weeks back and he will see himself in with a chance of beating Wawrinka here. I think Almagro and Andujar will meet in the third round and Almagro will come out on top to go on to face Nadal. Nadal will be too good for Almagro in the quarter finals and will progress to the semis.
The first five days of the tournament should be full of great tennis as the worlds best fight it out for semi final spots. On Saturday the semi final line-up is likely to contain Nadal and Djokovic but who they face is not as clear cut. Tsonga will fancy himself to make it through to face Nadal but he has a lot of obstacles in his way. Tipsarevic could continue his great form and make a run through as could Fernando Verdasco. Milos Raonic has a lot of potential and has already got two titles and a final appearance and if he plays well he has a chance of going far. I think Tsonga might just have enough to make it through but it's not certain. Nadal should again be too strong for Tsonga or whoever else makes it and make it to yet another Monte-Carlo final. Murray is in the same boat. He could face early exit too if he isn't on his game. Granollers could cause him problems as could Thomas Berdych who has a winning record against Murray including winning their only meeting on clay. Albert Ramos is a guy with the potential to beat Berdych although following that up with a win over Murray is unlikely. Murray has a decent record making the semi finals twice in three years and it's to back against him making it again. Djokovic is likely to face a very difficult match with Ferrer in his quarter final. Ferrer is a very capable clay court player and he has the potential to beat Djokovic but I think the Serb will be too good again here. Djokovic is likely to make the semis and if he does I think he will beat Murray too and that leaves us with a Nadal-Djokovic final. I thought we would see this match in Miami and Indian Wells but neither player made it in Indian Wells and Nadal puller out of Miami but this time I can't see anyone stopping us from getting the rematch of the Australian Open final where we saw one of the greatest matches of all time. Nadal felt he was after breaking the mental barrier in that final and I have to agree I think he had Djokovic beaten until he missed that backhand at 4-2 up in the final set which cost him his serve and gave Djokovic his way back into the match. For the first time he was on an even playing field and if that's correct then he has a great chance of beating Djokovic here. It would hurt Nadal greatly to lose to Djokovic in Monte-Carlo and I think Djokovic knows that Nadal was close in Melbourne so he will be looking to be at his very best this time. It will be a thrilling match if they meet again and I think Nadal might just have the edge. Can Nadal finally beat Djokovic? Can anyone end Nadal's seven year reign here? Can Murray come between Nadal and Djokovic? or will someone else rise to glory? It should be a great week of tennis and by the end we will have the answers to all those questions.
Rafael Nadal comes into this event looking for a stunning 8th consecutive title here having only ever lost here once, way back in 2003 when he lost to Guillermo Coria. This year he comes in having suffered seven consecutive losses in finals to Novak Djokovic, the most recent in the epic Australian Open final. Djokovic missed last years event due to injury and Nadal went on to win the title yet again, beating David Ferrer in the final. This year both players are in the field and it seems could be on a collision course to meet in the final. For Djokovic, taking Nadal's crown here would be great preparation for the French Open which Djokovic will also be looking to take from the Spaniard. Also in the field this year is world number four Andy Murray who looks set to have another good clay court season and will be looking to begin with a good week here. Spaniard David Ferrer, last years beaten finalist is also back this year as is 2010 beaten finalist Fernando Verdasco.
The singles draw this year was made by Gilles Simon and he placed third seed Andy Murray in the same half as number one seed Novak Djokovic while placing himself into second seed Rafael Nadal's half. Also in Nadal's half is the fourth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic will begin his quest for the title with a tie against the winner of Andreas Seppi and Victor Hanescu which I would expect to be Seppi. In the third round the Serb would be seeded to face Aleksandr Dolgopolov but I don't think Dolgopolov will beat Juan Ignacio Chela in his opening match and Bernard Tomic faces the winner of that match so Djokovic could face any one of three players in my opinion, Tomic, Dolgopolov or Chela, I would fancy Chela to get through. A quarter final tie is likely to be against Spaniard David Ferrer although Argentine Juan Monaco could have something to say about that. Ferrer has been in scintillating form this year and already has three titles to his name this season. Monaco has just won in Houston and I would fully expect Ferrer and Monaco to meet in the third round and Ferrer should be just too good and will go on to meet Djokovic. Djokovic has beaten Ferrer a few times this year but Ferrer has run him close a few times and the fact that it's now on clay will suit him more and he might fancy an upset. Djokovic should have just enough to progress from that match though and should make the semi final from that quarter.
In the second quarter Andy Murray will open against Victor Troicki after Troicki won on the opening Sunday against Jean-Rene Lisnard. Murray shouldn' have any problems in that one but a third round tie with Marcel Granollers would test the Scot's clay court credentials. Granollers would have to overcome Julien Benneteau and probably Jurgen Melzer to make it to that meeting but I think he should and although probably a better clay courter than Murray, Murray should have too much quality for him. Who Murray faces in the quarter finals is tough to say. Thomas Berdych is seeded to meet him but I would have my doubts over the Czech's clay form. I think it might take him a few matches to find his rhythm and he could be suspect to an early upset. His first match will be against Simone Bolelli or Marin Cilic and although both have ability I don't think either will beat him. His third round game is where he could be beaten. Kei Nishikori is the seed in that section but he faces Albert Ramos in his opener and I think Ramos will beat him, especially since Ramos has been playing well lately and he just made the final in Casablanca. Ramos will beat Paul Henri Mathieu in the second round I think as I expect Mathieu to beat Donald Young in his opener. Mathieu is currently returning to the tour after a lengthy lay off through injury and I think he will have a successful comeback but Ramos will be too good for him here. Ramos is the man for me to beat Berdych if anyone is to upset him. The winner of the Ramos Berdych clash will likely face Murray in the quarter finals and both have the ability to beat Murray it's a matter of whether they play their best against him or not. To beat Murray they will have to be very aggressive and attack the second serve and with this being his first event on clay Murray may be there for the taking.
In the third quarter ninth seed Gilles Simon is already into the second round after beating Benjamin Balleret in his first match and he will face either Federico Gil or Mikhail Youzhny. Gil, being the natural clay courter might just win that one but Simon will be a step too far for either of those two. The third round opponent for Simon is likely to be seventh seed Janko Tipsarevic. For me it depends on how Milos Raonic performs on clay. If he has a good start and beats Albert Montanes then he could give Tipsarevic a tough game. If he can take his power game and make the transition from hard court to clay court then I think he will be tough for anyone to beat and could beat Tipsarevic and go on to face Simon. Simon Tipsarevic or Raonic will face either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Fernando Verdasco in the quarter finals. For me Verdasco and Tsonga will certainly meet in the third round and I think Tsonga will win through this quarter if he plays well but watch out for Verdasco, he is well capable of beating Tsonga and whoever he meets in the quarter final. Verdasco has the potential to be one of the best clay courters but the mentality isn't there to get any sort of consistency but he does tend to be brilliant every now and again so watch for his performance this week.
The final quarter is where we find Rafael Nadal. Nadal is playing his first event since pulling out in Miami before his semi final due to a knee injury. If the trouble in his knees comes back to the extent of 2009 then he could be in for a very difficult year. Hopefully he has recovered substantially to be at his best at the event he has made his own over the years. His first match will be against Radek Stepanek or Jarkko Nieminen and Stepanek should win that but won't give Nadal any problems in round two. A third round tie with Florian Mayer is the seeded route but Filippo Volandri has got the game to beat Mayer is he has the right mentality here and I'm going to say Volandri will face Nadal in round three. Nadal should overcome that obstacle with ease and reach the quarter finals. There he could face fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro who has been playing well this season and will relish the return to clay. He could face Carlos Berlocq in round two and although Berlocq is a tricky customer Almagro should be too good. Feliciano Lopez and Stanislas Wawrinka meet in round one and I expect Wawrinka to win that one. The winner of that will face Pablo Andujar, who is fresh from winning the title in Casablanca today. Andujar is a player in form after bringing Djokovic to three sets in Indian Wells on hard courts a few weeks back and he will see himself in with a chance of beating Wawrinka here. I think Almagro and Andujar will meet in the third round and Almagro will come out on top to go on to face Nadal. Nadal will be too good for Almagro in the quarter finals and will progress to the semis.
The first five days of the tournament should be full of great tennis as the worlds best fight it out for semi final spots. On Saturday the semi final line-up is likely to contain Nadal and Djokovic but who they face is not as clear cut. Tsonga will fancy himself to make it through to face Nadal but he has a lot of obstacles in his way. Tipsarevic could continue his great form and make a run through as could Fernando Verdasco. Milos Raonic has a lot of potential and has already got two titles and a final appearance and if he plays well he has a chance of going far. I think Tsonga might just have enough to make it through but it's not certain. Nadal should again be too strong for Tsonga or whoever else makes it and make it to yet another Monte-Carlo final. Murray is in the same boat. He could face early exit too if he isn't on his game. Granollers could cause him problems as could Thomas Berdych who has a winning record against Murray including winning their only meeting on clay. Albert Ramos is a guy with the potential to beat Berdych although following that up with a win over Murray is unlikely. Murray has a decent record making the semi finals twice in three years and it's to back against him making it again. Djokovic is likely to face a very difficult match with Ferrer in his quarter final. Ferrer is a very capable clay court player and he has the potential to beat Djokovic but I think the Serb will be too good again here. Djokovic is likely to make the semis and if he does I think he will beat Murray too and that leaves us with a Nadal-Djokovic final. I thought we would see this match in Miami and Indian Wells but neither player made it in Indian Wells and Nadal puller out of Miami but this time I can't see anyone stopping us from getting the rematch of the Australian Open final where we saw one of the greatest matches of all time. Nadal felt he was after breaking the mental barrier in that final and I have to agree I think he had Djokovic beaten until he missed that backhand at 4-2 up in the final set which cost him his serve and gave Djokovic his way back into the match. For the first time he was on an even playing field and if that's correct then he has a great chance of beating Djokovic here. It would hurt Nadal greatly to lose to Djokovic in Monte-Carlo and I think Djokovic knows that Nadal was close in Melbourne so he will be looking to be at his very best this time. It will be a thrilling match if they meet again and I think Nadal might just have the edge. Can Nadal finally beat Djokovic? Can anyone end Nadal's seven year reign here? Can Murray come between Nadal and Djokovic? or will someone else rise to glory? It should be a great week of tennis and by the end we will have the answers to all those questions.
Friday, 13 April 2012
Weekend Football
The end of the season draws another step closer to the end this weekend as Man City continue to try and close the gap on leaders Man United and the teams at the bottom look for vital points in the relegation scrap. Outside of the Premiership Wembley plays host to the FA Cup semi final between Merseyside rivals Liverpool and Everton while in the other semi final Spurs take on Chelsea, also at Wembley.
Manchester United host Aston Villa looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat at Wigan midweek which allowed Man City to close the gap to five points. Alex McLeish's side are still not totally safe as they linger just six points above the drop zone with game in hand against Bolton still to come. Villa have been in poor form of late and if that continues and they don't pick up points in their next three games then their in for a nervy end to the campaign. With QPR and Wigan starting to pick up points more regular and Bolton and Blackburn having realistic chances of getting points coming up the pressure really is on Villa. They should be fired up and going at United all guns blazing on Sunday and going all out to get a shock win. If they get the win then they take a lot of pressure off and put themselves in touching distance of safety. United, on the other hand, have to get back to winning ways. Another loss would pile the pressure on the champions and give City more hope. Sir Alex has already stated that Paul Scholes will be back in the side for Sunday's game and that is great news for all United fans. Without him they lacked the creativity that we became accustomed to when Scholes has played. I think Villa will be safe this season but I don't see them getting a result at Old Trafford. United should win but I wouldn't expect to see many goals. In their quest to close the gap City have to travel to Norwich City. Norwich have already guaranteed their safety in their first season back in the Premier League and are only three points behind Liverpool and are looking like finishing in the top ten. They will be up against it on Saturday in the lunchtime kickoff against a City side fresh from a 4-0 win against West Brom. They looked very good on Wednesday and one can only ask how they would have done the past two months if they had no off-field distractions and played the football we all know they are capable of. Mancini must take some of the blame himself for their poor run of games. Away from home they don't play to win. Against Arsenal last weekend they seemed to be playing for a draw and that's not good enough for a team with those players. If they do the same against Norwich they might struggle but I think they will have enough to get over a potentially tricky game. In terms of the tile race I think no points will be gained or lost this weekend although City will have one game less to catch their neighbours.
At the bottom of the table Wolves could find themselves all but relegated this weekend. If they lose to Sunderland away which is very possible then they will be nine points off survival with just twelve points left to play for. Even if they get a win it still remains likely that Wolves will be playing in the Championship next season. Three wins in four has brought Wigan out of the relegation zone and their win over United on Wednesday was well deserved and should give them great confidence going to the Emirates Monday night. If they get another win there then I would expect them to survive this season. Arsenal should provide a better test than the one they faced Wednesday though and I would expect Arsenal to pick up all three points in that one. Blackburn travel to Swansea looking for a win to boost their survival hopes. They looked good not long ago and were picking up some wins but unfortunately for them they have now lost four on the spin. Swansea have a great home record and I don't think Blackburn will get the result they desire and we could see a draw in this one although Swansea have also lost four in a row. QPR can take a huge step towards survival if they win away to West Brom. Three wins in their last six has given Mark Hughes' side hope but they have got a tough run in so games like this become must win games for them. I think QPR can take the points against a West Brom side battered in midweek.
Also this weekend is of course the FA Cup semi finals at Wembley. Liverpool and Everton should be a great match. Liverpool have been shocking lately which for a club of that stature is simply not good enough. Winning the FA Cup would go a long way to making up for the poor league form. However, in Everton they face a very stiff challenge. Apart from the fact that Everton are a very good side considering they have no money to buy more players the local rivalry makes this match difficult to call. Everton are coming off the back of a 4-0 win against Sunderland despite resting players and Liverpool finally got back to winning ways against Blackburn. This should be a cracking semi final filled with pride as not only is there a place in a cup final at place but local pride. I wouldn't be confident picking either side as I would expect Liverpool to go through as it has to be decided on the day and Everton tend to produce their best in the FA
Cup beating Man United and Chelsea in recent years. I have a hunch that Everton might sneak it. In the other semi final Chelsea and Spurs should be another great match on Sunday evening. Spurs have been very good this season although they faded away in their title quest a few months back but are back on track now and I think they might just have too much for Chelsea this weekend. Chelsea have been a tough side to beat recently and Di Matteo will be looking to add an FA Cup final to the Champions League semi final they recently made. I think Spurs are too creative and they have so many players who can score that I think they are going to win this one.
This weekend should be packed with entertainment with so many important matches. The two FA Cup finals should be well worth a watch and the matches between the Manchester clubs will be worth watching to see if either side feels the pressure and suffers a shock result. The relegation battle is sure to take more twists this weekend as teams feel the heat. It should be a very exciting weekend and I certainly can't wait to see how it plays out.
Manchester United host Aston Villa looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat at Wigan midweek which allowed Man City to close the gap to five points. Alex McLeish's side are still not totally safe as they linger just six points above the drop zone with game in hand against Bolton still to come. Villa have been in poor form of late and if that continues and they don't pick up points in their next three games then their in for a nervy end to the campaign. With QPR and Wigan starting to pick up points more regular and Bolton and Blackburn having realistic chances of getting points coming up the pressure really is on Villa. They should be fired up and going at United all guns blazing on Sunday and going all out to get a shock win. If they get the win then they take a lot of pressure off and put themselves in touching distance of safety. United, on the other hand, have to get back to winning ways. Another loss would pile the pressure on the champions and give City more hope. Sir Alex has already stated that Paul Scholes will be back in the side for Sunday's game and that is great news for all United fans. Without him they lacked the creativity that we became accustomed to when Scholes has played. I think Villa will be safe this season but I don't see them getting a result at Old Trafford. United should win but I wouldn't expect to see many goals. In their quest to close the gap City have to travel to Norwich City. Norwich have already guaranteed their safety in their first season back in the Premier League and are only three points behind Liverpool and are looking like finishing in the top ten. They will be up against it on Saturday in the lunchtime kickoff against a City side fresh from a 4-0 win against West Brom. They looked very good on Wednesday and one can only ask how they would have done the past two months if they had no off-field distractions and played the football we all know they are capable of. Mancini must take some of the blame himself for their poor run of games. Away from home they don't play to win. Against Arsenal last weekend they seemed to be playing for a draw and that's not good enough for a team with those players. If they do the same against Norwich they might struggle but I think they will have enough to get over a potentially tricky game. In terms of the tile race I think no points will be gained or lost this weekend although City will have one game less to catch their neighbours.
At the bottom of the table Wolves could find themselves all but relegated this weekend. If they lose to Sunderland away which is very possible then they will be nine points off survival with just twelve points left to play for. Even if they get a win it still remains likely that Wolves will be playing in the Championship next season. Three wins in four has brought Wigan out of the relegation zone and their win over United on Wednesday was well deserved and should give them great confidence going to the Emirates Monday night. If they get another win there then I would expect them to survive this season. Arsenal should provide a better test than the one they faced Wednesday though and I would expect Arsenal to pick up all three points in that one. Blackburn travel to Swansea looking for a win to boost their survival hopes. They looked good not long ago and were picking up some wins but unfortunately for them they have now lost four on the spin. Swansea have a great home record and I don't think Blackburn will get the result they desire and we could see a draw in this one although Swansea have also lost four in a row. QPR can take a huge step towards survival if they win away to West Brom. Three wins in their last six has given Mark Hughes' side hope but they have got a tough run in so games like this become must win games for them. I think QPR can take the points against a West Brom side battered in midweek.
Also this weekend is of course the FA Cup semi finals at Wembley. Liverpool and Everton should be a great match. Liverpool have been shocking lately which for a club of that stature is simply not good enough. Winning the FA Cup would go a long way to making up for the poor league form. However, in Everton they face a very stiff challenge. Apart from the fact that Everton are a very good side considering they have no money to buy more players the local rivalry makes this match difficult to call. Everton are coming off the back of a 4-0 win against Sunderland despite resting players and Liverpool finally got back to winning ways against Blackburn. This should be a cracking semi final filled with pride as not only is there a place in a cup final at place but local pride. I wouldn't be confident picking either side as I would expect Liverpool to go through as it has to be decided on the day and Everton tend to produce their best in the FA
Cup beating Man United and Chelsea in recent years. I have a hunch that Everton might sneak it. In the other semi final Chelsea and Spurs should be another great match on Sunday evening. Spurs have been very good this season although they faded away in their title quest a few months back but are back on track now and I think they might just have too much for Chelsea this weekend. Chelsea have been a tough side to beat recently and Di Matteo will be looking to add an FA Cup final to the Champions League semi final they recently made. I think Spurs are too creative and they have so many players who can score that I think they are going to win this one.
This weekend should be packed with entertainment with so many important matches. The two FA Cup finals should be well worth a watch and the matches between the Manchester clubs will be worth watching to see if either side feels the pressure and suffers a shock result. The relegation battle is sure to take more twists this weekend as teams feel the heat. It should be a very exciting weekend and I certainly can't wait to see how it plays out.
Wednesday, 11 April 2012
Bubba Watson: Masters Champion 2012
Gerry "Bubba" Watson was born on November 5th 1978 in Bagdad, Florida. At the age of 6 his father Garry introduced him to the game of golf. Incredibly Bubba never had a formal golfing lesson in his life. This didn't stop him from becoming the 2012 US Masters champion. In 2003 he joined the Nationwide Tour and in 2005 he finished 21st on the money list which qualified him to play on the PGA Tour for 2006. In his first event at the Sony Open in Hawaii he finished in 4th place and he went on to have a total of three top ten finishes in his first season. In 2010 Bubba finished a whopping at an astonishing -29 at the Bob Hope Classic but finished second to Bill Haas and was still looking for his first tour win. On 27th June he finally made the breakthrough. At the Travellers Championship he defeated Corey Pavin and Scott Verplank in a playoff. An emotional Watson dedicated his win to his parents and in particular his father who was battling cancer. At the PGA Championship he was beaten in a playoff by Martin Kaymer but still managed his best finish at a major to date. In January 2011 Watson won his second title at the Farmers Insurance Open beating Phil Mickelson by one stroke. At the Zurich Classic in May 2011 Watson won a third title, defeating fellow American Webb Simpson in a playoff.
Watson lost his father to throat cancer in October 2010 and to show his support for cancer awareness he now uses a pink driver. Watson possesses the longest drive on the tour despite an unusual technique. Bubba has never been given a lesson and doesn't employ a coach. He has thought himself how to hit the ball ever since he was shown how to hold a club by his father. Watson has adopted a very aggressive style and hits the ball high from right to left. His length off the tee means he often only needs a short iron or wedge on par 4's and on par 5's he is always in with a chance of reaching in two.
A 40/1 outsider to win the Masters, Watson opened with a 69 to put himself in contention and followed it up with rounds of 71 and 70 to leave himself three shots off the lead heading into the final round. Playing partner Louis Oosthuizen looked set to win his second major when he led going into the back nine after hitting a stunning albatross on the 2nd hole. Watson trailed Oosthuizen up until the 16th hole when he made his fourth consecutive birdie on the back nine to draw level. Both players made par on the 17th and 18th to go to a play off. Both players again made par on the 18th in the first playoff hole and so they went to the tenth. Watson drove straight into the trees and left himself 150 yards to the hole. He had no sight of the green and virtually no shot while Oosthuizen was just off the green waiting to hit his third shot. Somehow Watson hit a stunning hook shot and landed it safely on the green. Oosthuizen couldn't get up and down and only made a bogey leaving Watson two putts for the win. Putting was always the achilles heel Watson but his first attempt went right next to the hole leaving him a tap in for his first major victory.
After making the putt he hugged his caddie Ted Scott before embracing his mother Molly. The tears were flowing which surprised nobody. Watson has cried after every win and this was all the more special. Afterwards he spoke of his father, "My dad's not here but he's watching in heaven". "I can't wait to get back. He also spoke of his new son when he admitted "I haven't changed a diaper yet". Watson also vowed not to alter his aggressive style "I always attack. I don’t like to go to the centre of the greens, I want to hit the incredible shot. Who doesn’t? That’s why we play the game of golf. Truthfully, it’s like Seve [Ballesteros] played. He hit shots that were unbelievable. If you watch Phil Mickelson, he goes for broke and that’s why he wins so many times. He’s not afraid. I can hit it straight, it’s just it’s easier to see curves. I remember Jack Nicklaus said he wanted to aim at the centre of the green and get the ball drifting towards the hole when he played Augusta. That’s the way I like to play all the golf courses."
This could be the first step in an incredible career for the big hitter. So far in 2012 he has finished in the top 20 of all his 8 tournaments and with a major under his belt the pressure to win one is off and he can now move on to try to win more tournaments and more majors. The style of Bubba is a joy to watch and his adventurous mindset makes him a huge fan favourite. I hope we see the very best of Watson in the coming years and I'm sure we will see him lift many more major titles.
Watson lost his father to throat cancer in October 2010 and to show his support for cancer awareness he now uses a pink driver. Watson possesses the longest drive on the tour despite an unusual technique. Bubba has never been given a lesson and doesn't employ a coach. He has thought himself how to hit the ball ever since he was shown how to hold a club by his father. Watson has adopted a very aggressive style and hits the ball high from right to left. His length off the tee means he often only needs a short iron or wedge on par 4's and on par 5's he is always in with a chance of reaching in two.
A 40/1 outsider to win the Masters, Watson opened with a 69 to put himself in contention and followed it up with rounds of 71 and 70 to leave himself three shots off the lead heading into the final round. Playing partner Louis Oosthuizen looked set to win his second major when he led going into the back nine after hitting a stunning albatross on the 2nd hole. Watson trailed Oosthuizen up until the 16th hole when he made his fourth consecutive birdie on the back nine to draw level. Both players made par on the 17th and 18th to go to a play off. Both players again made par on the 18th in the first playoff hole and so they went to the tenth. Watson drove straight into the trees and left himself 150 yards to the hole. He had no sight of the green and virtually no shot while Oosthuizen was just off the green waiting to hit his third shot. Somehow Watson hit a stunning hook shot and landed it safely on the green. Oosthuizen couldn't get up and down and only made a bogey leaving Watson two putts for the win. Putting was always the achilles heel Watson but his first attempt went right next to the hole leaving him a tap in for his first major victory.
After making the putt he hugged his caddie Ted Scott before embracing his mother Molly. The tears were flowing which surprised nobody. Watson has cried after every win and this was all the more special. Afterwards he spoke of his father, "My dad's not here but he's watching in heaven". "I can't wait to get back. He also spoke of his new son when he admitted "I haven't changed a diaper yet". Watson also vowed not to alter his aggressive style "I always attack. I don’t like to go to the centre of the greens, I want to hit the incredible shot. Who doesn’t? That’s why we play the game of golf. Truthfully, it’s like Seve [Ballesteros] played. He hit shots that were unbelievable. If you watch Phil Mickelson, he goes for broke and that’s why he wins so many times. He’s not afraid. I can hit it straight, it’s just it’s easier to see curves. I remember Jack Nicklaus said he wanted to aim at the centre of the green and get the ball drifting towards the hole when he played Augusta. That’s the way I like to play all the golf courses."
This could be the first step in an incredible career for the big hitter. So far in 2012 he has finished in the top 20 of all his 8 tournaments and with a major under his belt the pressure to win one is off and he can now move on to try to win more tournaments and more majors. The style of Bubba is a joy to watch and his adventurous mindset makes him a huge fan favourite. I hope we see the very best of Watson in the coming years and I'm sure we will see him lift many more major titles.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Casablanca and Houston Tennis
The ATP tour makes the transition from hard courts to clay courts this week with two tournaments. Casablanca, Morocco plays host to the Grand Prix Hassan ii tournament while Houston, USA is the venue for the US Men's Clay Court Championships. I'm going to take a look at the players to watch out for this week and give my pick for the outright tournament winner in each tournament.
Starting with Houston and a number of well known players have committed to playing this event including top American stars Mardy Fish and John Isner. Only 28 players are in the main draw with eight seeds. 1st seed Fish, 2nd seed Isner, 3rd seed Feliciano Lopez and 4th seed Juan Monaco all receive a first round bye. Despite being first seed I don't think Fish is one of the main contenders this week. His form isn't good and his game has let him down a lot recently. The move to clay shouldn't be helpful for him although maybe the fact that the pressure is off him slightly might allow him express himself more. Fortunately the draw has been kind to him and I think he might make the semi finals with the toughest test before that likely to be against Ryan Harrison or Xavier Malisse. Much will depend on Harrison and how he copes with the clay this year and if he gets off to a good start and wins his first match or two he might be able to cause Fish problems. If he doesn't play well then Malisse is likely to face Fish and although Malisse is having a decent year so far I don't think he'd beat Mardy. Unfortunately for Fish I don't see anything better than a semi final place.
Feliciano Lopez will be looking to kick start his season on the clay as so far his only notable win was over Isner in Australia although Isner was suffering from fatigue after a lengthy match with Nalbandian the day before. He should make a quarter final as neither Paolo Lorenzi or Wayne Odesnik will be strong enough to take him down. After that it's likely he'll face Carlos Berlocq and although that will be a very tight encounter I think Berlocq will end Lopez's run. Berlocq himself has reason to be optimistic. He has strong clay court credentials and is going to be a difficult opponent for anyone he faces. A semi final showdown with John Isner would be a good match. Isner has been in great form lately and I think this year could be very big for the American. He has already broken into the top ten and has had big wins over Federer and Djokovic. He's coming off two good wins for USA in the Davis Cup last weekend over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon. I think he is a very strong contender and will overcome Berlocq in a semi final.
Argentinian Juan Monaco is certainly the best clay court player in the draw and will fancy his chances of winning another clay title this year after already won in Vina Del Mar. Kevin Anderson and Mardy Fish will be his main challengers in making the final but neither has the game to beat him on clay. Another thing in the Argentinians favour is the fact that he had a very good American hard court season and that will give him great confidence heading onto his favoured surface.
For me there is only two players to watch here, Isner and Monaco. Both are playing well but the edge is with Isner who has been far more impressive in the beginning of the season. The clay will suit Monaco more but with Isner having already beaten Federer on clay this year and having two wins on clay in Davis Cup last weekend the advantage is with the American. Isner is just over 2/1 to take the title with Monaco just over 3/1.
Casablanca is a much more open tournament. Again only 28 players are in the singles draw. Top seed Florian Mayer is unlikely to be a major threat at this event as he isn't a strong clay court player. He does have a lot of ability and although that will be enough to see him beat some players he won't be a challenger come finals weekend. A quarter final meeting with Albert Ramos is where he could end his tournament as Ramos has been a revelation in the past year and on clay he is likely to improve further. Ramos has got the potential to go all the way and I certainly think he will make a semi final appearance. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez may not be seeded but he is a very strong contender for the title here. He is a solid player and on his day can be a match for anyone.
Defending champion Pablo Andujar has got very strong credentials this year and is a contender to defend his title. The Spaniard is at home on the clay and his experience is likely to be a factor for him this week. Robin Haase might be his toughest early proposition but the Dutchman has been so poor lately he won't trouble Andujar. I'm interested to see how Aleksandr Dolgopolov does on the clay this year. His game is so unusual and the variations of spins and slices is too much for a lot of players. He got a wildcard into the tournament and I think he could be one to watch here. Flavio Cipolla is a potential pothole for him but I think he is going to go through to a semi final meeting with Andujar.
Picking a winner of this tournament is not easy. Dolgopolov is averaging 3/1 to win the title and has got the ability to go all the way. Backing the Ukranian would be a decent bet. Don't let the 4/1 price tempt you with Florian Mayer, I like the German and he can be very useful but I just don't see him being consistent enough to go all the way this week. Albert Ramos can be got at best price of 14/1 and that's worth an each way bet. Picking just one of these is tough but a tentative vote goes to Ramos.
Starting with Houston and a number of well known players have committed to playing this event including top American stars Mardy Fish and John Isner. Only 28 players are in the main draw with eight seeds. 1st seed Fish, 2nd seed Isner, 3rd seed Feliciano Lopez and 4th seed Juan Monaco all receive a first round bye. Despite being first seed I don't think Fish is one of the main contenders this week. His form isn't good and his game has let him down a lot recently. The move to clay shouldn't be helpful for him although maybe the fact that the pressure is off him slightly might allow him express himself more. Fortunately the draw has been kind to him and I think he might make the semi finals with the toughest test before that likely to be against Ryan Harrison or Xavier Malisse. Much will depend on Harrison and how he copes with the clay this year and if he gets off to a good start and wins his first match or two he might be able to cause Fish problems. If he doesn't play well then Malisse is likely to face Fish and although Malisse is having a decent year so far I don't think he'd beat Mardy. Unfortunately for Fish I don't see anything better than a semi final place.
Feliciano Lopez will be looking to kick start his season on the clay as so far his only notable win was over Isner in Australia although Isner was suffering from fatigue after a lengthy match with Nalbandian the day before. He should make a quarter final as neither Paolo Lorenzi or Wayne Odesnik will be strong enough to take him down. After that it's likely he'll face Carlos Berlocq and although that will be a very tight encounter I think Berlocq will end Lopez's run. Berlocq himself has reason to be optimistic. He has strong clay court credentials and is going to be a difficult opponent for anyone he faces. A semi final showdown with John Isner would be a good match. Isner has been in great form lately and I think this year could be very big for the American. He has already broken into the top ten and has had big wins over Federer and Djokovic. He's coming off two good wins for USA in the Davis Cup last weekend over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon. I think he is a very strong contender and will overcome Berlocq in a semi final.
Argentinian Juan Monaco is certainly the best clay court player in the draw and will fancy his chances of winning another clay title this year after already won in Vina Del Mar. Kevin Anderson and Mardy Fish will be his main challengers in making the final but neither has the game to beat him on clay. Another thing in the Argentinians favour is the fact that he had a very good American hard court season and that will give him great confidence heading onto his favoured surface.
For me there is only two players to watch here, Isner and Monaco. Both are playing well but the edge is with Isner who has been far more impressive in the beginning of the season. The clay will suit Monaco more but with Isner having already beaten Federer on clay this year and having two wins on clay in Davis Cup last weekend the advantage is with the American. Isner is just over 2/1 to take the title with Monaco just over 3/1.
Casablanca is a much more open tournament. Again only 28 players are in the singles draw. Top seed Florian Mayer is unlikely to be a major threat at this event as he isn't a strong clay court player. He does have a lot of ability and although that will be enough to see him beat some players he won't be a challenger come finals weekend. A quarter final meeting with Albert Ramos is where he could end his tournament as Ramos has been a revelation in the past year and on clay he is likely to improve further. Ramos has got the potential to go all the way and I certainly think he will make a semi final appearance. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez may not be seeded but he is a very strong contender for the title here. He is a solid player and on his day can be a match for anyone.
Defending champion Pablo Andujar has got very strong credentials this year and is a contender to defend his title. The Spaniard is at home on the clay and his experience is likely to be a factor for him this week. Robin Haase might be his toughest early proposition but the Dutchman has been so poor lately he won't trouble Andujar. I'm interested to see how Aleksandr Dolgopolov does on the clay this year. His game is so unusual and the variations of spins and slices is too much for a lot of players. He got a wildcard into the tournament and I think he could be one to watch here. Flavio Cipolla is a potential pothole for him but I think he is going to go through to a semi final meeting with Andujar.
Picking a winner of this tournament is not easy. Dolgopolov is averaging 3/1 to win the title and has got the ability to go all the way. Backing the Ukranian would be a decent bet. Don't let the 4/1 price tempt you with Florian Mayer, I like the German and he can be very useful but I just don't see him being consistent enough to go all the way this week. Albert Ramos can be got at best price of 14/1 and that's worth an each way bet. Picking just one of these is tough but a tentative vote goes to Ramos.
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