This week (starting today) the third Masters 1000 event of the year takes place in Monte-Carlo. Monte-Carlo has held an annual event on the tour since 1897 breaking only during both World Wars. Since 2009 it's become the only Masters event that is not mandatory for the players. Despite this the event still attracts the very best the tour has to offer. Since 2005 the clay court event has been dominated by one man but this year his reign will face it's toughest test yet.
Rafael Nadal comes into this event looking for a stunning 8th consecutive title here having only ever lost here once, way back in 2003 when he lost to Guillermo Coria. This year he comes in having suffered seven consecutive losses in finals to Novak Djokovic, the most recent in the epic Australian Open final. Djokovic missed last years event due to injury and Nadal went on to win the title yet again, beating David Ferrer in the final. This year both players are in the field and it seems could be on a collision course to meet in the final. For Djokovic, taking Nadal's crown here would be great preparation for the French Open which Djokovic will also be looking to take from the Spaniard. Also in the field this year is world number four Andy Murray who looks set to have another good clay court season and will be looking to begin with a good week here. Spaniard David Ferrer, last years beaten finalist is also back this year as is 2010 beaten finalist Fernando Verdasco.
The singles draw this year was made by Gilles Simon and he placed third seed Andy Murray in the same half as number one seed Novak Djokovic while placing himself into second seed Rafael Nadal's half. Also in Nadal's half is the fourth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic will begin his quest for the title with a tie against the winner of Andreas Seppi and Victor Hanescu which I would expect to be Seppi. In the third round the Serb would be seeded to face Aleksandr Dolgopolov but I don't think Dolgopolov will beat Juan Ignacio Chela in his opening match and Bernard Tomic faces the winner of that match so Djokovic could face any one of three players in my opinion, Tomic, Dolgopolov or Chela, I would fancy Chela to get through. A quarter final tie is likely to be against Spaniard David Ferrer although Argentine Juan Monaco could have something to say about that. Ferrer has been in scintillating form this year and already has three titles to his name this season. Monaco has just won in Houston and I would fully expect Ferrer and Monaco to meet in the third round and Ferrer should be just too good and will go on to meet Djokovic. Djokovic has beaten Ferrer a few times this year but Ferrer has run him close a few times and the fact that it's now on clay will suit him more and he might fancy an upset. Djokovic should have just enough to progress from that match though and should make the semi final from that quarter.
In the second quarter Andy Murray will open against Victor Troicki after Troicki won on the opening Sunday against Jean-Rene Lisnard. Murray shouldn' have any problems in that one but a third round tie with Marcel Granollers would test the Scot's clay court credentials. Granollers would have to overcome Julien Benneteau and probably Jurgen Melzer to make it to that meeting but I think he should and although probably a better clay courter than Murray, Murray should have too much quality for him. Who Murray faces in the quarter finals is tough to say. Thomas Berdych is seeded to meet him but I would have my doubts over the Czech's clay form. I think it might take him a few matches to find his rhythm and he could be suspect to an early upset. His first match will be against Simone Bolelli or Marin Cilic and although both have ability I don't think either will beat him. His third round game is where he could be beaten. Kei Nishikori is the seed in that section but he faces Albert Ramos in his opener and I think Ramos will beat him, especially since Ramos has been playing well lately and he just made the final in Casablanca. Ramos will beat Paul Henri Mathieu in the second round I think as I expect Mathieu to beat Donald Young in his opener. Mathieu is currently returning to the tour after a lengthy lay off through injury and I think he will have a successful comeback but Ramos will be too good for him here. Ramos is the man for me to beat Berdych if anyone is to upset him. The winner of the Ramos Berdych clash will likely face Murray in the quarter finals and both have the ability to beat Murray it's a matter of whether they play their best against him or not. To beat Murray they will have to be very aggressive and attack the second serve and with this being his first event on clay Murray may be there for the taking.
In the third quarter ninth seed Gilles Simon is already into the second round after beating Benjamin Balleret in his first match and he will face either Federico Gil or Mikhail Youzhny. Gil, being the natural clay courter might just win that one but Simon will be a step too far for either of those two. The third round opponent for Simon is likely to be seventh seed Janko Tipsarevic. For me it depends on how Milos Raonic performs on clay. If he has a good start and beats Albert Montanes then he could give Tipsarevic a tough game. If he can take his power game and make the transition from hard court to clay court then I think he will be tough for anyone to beat and could beat Tipsarevic and go on to face Simon. Simon Tipsarevic or Raonic will face either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Fernando Verdasco in the quarter finals. For me Verdasco and Tsonga will certainly meet in the third round and I think Tsonga will win through this quarter if he plays well but watch out for Verdasco, he is well capable of beating Tsonga and whoever he meets in the quarter final. Verdasco has the potential to be one of the best clay courters but the mentality isn't there to get any sort of consistency but he does tend to be brilliant every now and again so watch for his performance this week.
The final quarter is where we find Rafael Nadal. Nadal is playing his first event since pulling out in Miami before his semi final due to a knee injury. If the trouble in his knees comes back to the extent of 2009 then he could be in for a very difficult year. Hopefully he has recovered substantially to be at his best at the event he has made his own over the years. His first match will be against Radek Stepanek or Jarkko Nieminen and Stepanek should win that but won't give Nadal any problems in round two. A third round tie with Florian Mayer is the seeded route but Filippo Volandri has got the game to beat Mayer is he has the right mentality here and I'm going to say Volandri will face Nadal in round three. Nadal should overcome that obstacle with ease and reach the quarter finals. There he could face fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro who has been playing well this season and will relish the return to clay. He could face Carlos Berlocq in round two and although Berlocq is a tricky customer Almagro should be too good. Feliciano Lopez and Stanislas Wawrinka meet in round one and I expect Wawrinka to win that one. The winner of that will face Pablo Andujar, who is fresh from winning the title in Casablanca today. Andujar is a player in form after bringing Djokovic to three sets in Indian Wells on hard courts a few weeks back and he will see himself in with a chance of beating Wawrinka here. I think Almagro and Andujar will meet in the third round and Almagro will come out on top to go on to face Nadal. Nadal will be too good for Almagro in the quarter finals and will progress to the semis.
The first five days of the tournament should be full of great tennis as the worlds best fight it out for semi final spots. On Saturday the semi final line-up is likely to contain Nadal and Djokovic but who they face is not as clear cut. Tsonga will fancy himself to make it through to face Nadal but he has a lot of obstacles in his way. Tipsarevic could continue his great form and make a run through as could Fernando Verdasco. Milos Raonic has a lot of potential and has already got two titles and a final appearance and if he plays well he has a chance of going far. I think Tsonga might just have enough to make it through but it's not certain. Nadal should again be too strong for Tsonga or whoever else makes it and make it to yet another Monte-Carlo final. Murray is in the same boat. He could face early exit too if he isn't on his game. Granollers could cause him problems as could Thomas Berdych who has a winning record against Murray including winning their only meeting on clay. Albert Ramos is a guy with the potential to beat Berdych although following that up with a win over Murray is unlikely. Murray has a decent record making the semi finals twice in three years and it's to back against him making it again. Djokovic is likely to face a very difficult match with Ferrer in his quarter final. Ferrer is a very capable clay court player and he has the potential to beat Djokovic but I think the Serb will be too good again here. Djokovic is likely to make the semis and if he does I think he will beat Murray too and that leaves us with a Nadal-Djokovic final. I thought we would see this match in Miami and Indian Wells but neither player made it in Indian Wells and Nadal puller out of Miami but this time I can't see anyone stopping us from getting the rematch of the Australian Open final where we saw one of the greatest matches of all time. Nadal felt he was after breaking the mental barrier in that final and I have to agree I think he had Djokovic beaten until he missed that backhand at 4-2 up in the final set which cost him his serve and gave Djokovic his way back into the match. For the first time he was on an even playing field and if that's correct then he has a great chance of beating Djokovic here. It would hurt Nadal greatly to lose to Djokovic in Monte-Carlo and I think Djokovic knows that Nadal was close in Melbourne so he will be looking to be at his very best this time. It will be a thrilling match if they meet again and I think Nadal might just have the edge. Can Nadal finally beat Djokovic? Can anyone end Nadal's seven year reign here? Can Murray come between Nadal and Djokovic? or will someone else rise to glory? It should be a great week of tennis and by the end we will have the answers to all those questions.
No comments:
Post a Comment