Sunday will see Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal come face to face for the 31st time in the Monte Carlo Masters final. Djokovic is looking to continue his recent success against the Spaniard having won their past seven matches which all came in finals and have all been last season and at this seasons Australian Open. This is their first meeting since their epic Australian Open final which lasted almost six hours. Both players have made solid starts to their clay court seasons and both will be desperate to win the first big clay title of the year. Nadal leads the head to head 16-14 and of those 16 wins 11 were in straight sets. Since his last win over Djokovic (2010 World Finals) it's been the rise of Djokovic rather than the fall of Nadal that has contributed to the Serb's success.
Both players had first round byes and therefore didn't start their campaigns until Wednesday. Djokovic opened with a straightforward 6-1 6-4 win over Andreas Seppi while Nadal overcame a spirited Jarkko Nieminen 6-4 6-3. Thursday proved to be a tough day for Novak as just before he stepped on to court he was informed of the death of his grandfather. He mind was clearly elsewhere as he laboured to victory over Aleksandr Dolgopolov. Rafa was ruthless in his destruction of Mikhail Kukushkin on the same day with a 6-1 6-1 win. The quarter finals threw up tricky ties for the top two but Djokovic set the ball rolling with a very convincing win over Robin Haase 6-4 6-2. Nadal beat Stanislas Wawrinka 7-5 6-4 in what was a stern test of the Spaniards game. That put both players into today's semi finals and Djokovic was first up and he took on an in form Thomas Berdych. Things weren't looking good for the Serb when he lost the first set 6-4 but he recovered superbly to take the final two 6-3 6-2 to make tomorrow's final. Nadal then knew only Gilles Simon stood between him and a rematch with Novak. Simon played what was certainly the best clay court match I've ever seen him play and the match was a lot closer than the scoreline suggested as Nadal worked very hard for his 6-3 6-4 win.
So that brings us to the final tomorrow. Monte Carlo has been a fortress for Rafa for the past seven years as nobody has managed to beat him and he's only lost 6 sets in that time. Djokovic tomorrow is certainly going to be the toughest test of that reign and if he overcomes it then he will take huge confidence into the remainder of the season. Djokovic, on the other hand, also has a lot to gain from tomorrow. He needs to keep the mental hold he has had over Nadal going and continue his dominance. He beat Nadal on clay in Madrid and more impressively Rome last year but this would surpass both. Nadal had been beaten in Madrid a few times before and had been beaten in Rome by Ferrero before but nobody beats Nadal in Monte Carlo. This would be a huge mental blow for Nadal and a major confidence boost for Djokovic.
The Australian Open final could prove a turning point in this head to head. Nadal hadn't really come close to beating Djokovic in the six previous meetings. At Wimbledon and the US Open Djokovic won in four sets. Nadal lost the first two and then won the third but lost the fourth easily on both occasions. At the Australian Open everything was different. Nadal came out fast and won the first before Djokovic won the next two easy. He somehow then won the fourth in a tie break and managed to get 4-2 up in the final set. He had it won, he had finally beaten Djokovic but he missed a routine mid-court backhand and that allowed Novak to break back and go on to take the match. That final was the first time that Nadal had stood up and rallied with Djokovic and actually looked like he could hit through Djokovic. He was finally able to step up to the mark and compete with Novak. It was the first time that it was his own mistakes rather than Djokovic's dominance that cost him the match. The reason Nadal was so competitive was his better percentages on break points saved and his efficiency in taking break point opportunities. He also increased the power of his ground strokes by adding lead to the frame of his racquet and he improved the depth of his shots which was crucial. These changes allowed him to step up into the court and rally with Djokovic.
With tomorrow's meeting being on clay Nadal is likely to employ similar tactics. The Spaniards second serve is where he is losing out heavily against the Serb. Djokovic is picking apart his second serve and getting the first shot into the rally every time which gives him a huge advantage. On clay Nadal should be much better at protecting his second serve and if he can do it well enough he will have a great chance. What I would like to see Nadal try tomorrow is start hitting his backhand with more power in the opening 3 or 4 games and try to match Djokovic shot for shot. Djokovic is ridiculously good at generating pace off both wings and Nadal seems to hit his backhand with lots of spin and less power against him. Djokovic will target Nadals backhand if he find he is in trouble in a rally and he will know he can beat Nadal when they rally from Djokovic's forehand to Nadal's backhand. That's why Nadal needs to flatten it out and give Novak something to think about off both sides. Nadal needs to be aggressive on Djokovic's serve and needs to get the first shot into the rally as often as he can, even if this means being aggressive off his backhand side on the return. This will allow him to dictate points with his forehand and if starts hitting consecutive shots in a row with his forehand on clay then nobody can beat him, not even Djokovic. Nadal had been hitting his first serve a bit harder this week yet had also been getting very good percentage This could be crucial tomorrow, if he serves 70% then his second serve is being protected and he will be more secure on serve.
Djokovic has used his flat powerful shots to breakdown Nadal but I don't see it being as effective tomorrow. I think Nadal is playing well this week and is defending exceptionally well and he only needs a half chance to turn a defensive situation into an attacking one and that's important on clay. Nadal is patient enough and experienced enough to wait for his chances and he won't panic if things don't start well for him. Surely he will be fired up for this one and he won't want to lose to the same man again and he won't want to surrender his crown in Monte Carlo. Nadal must beat Djokovic soon and for me tomorrow is the day. He has to have learnt from Melbourne what works and what doesn't and he know's now what it takes to beat the Serb. However, it won't be easy for him. He'll need to play at his best and he'll need to play the big points well and if he manages to play the way he wants then he will beat Djokovic. Djokovic will be looking to end a difficult week for him with a title but unfortunately for him I don't see it happening. So can Nadal beat Djokovic? Yes he can and what better place for him to than in Monte Carlo.
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