Monday 28 May 2012

Roland Garros 2012- Women's Preview

This year as has been the case for the past few years it is virtually impossible to predict the winner of the women's singles event at the French Open. There are so many contenders for the title and a lot of very talented ladies that are capable of producing big shocks such as the surge of Francesca Schiavone in 2010. World number one and Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka has been the dominant player of the season so far but for her to win another Grand Slam she will have some very stiff competition. Serena Williams is looking to continue her great run of results recently to win her first French Open since beating her sister Venus in 2002. Defending champion Na Li recently made the final of the event in Rome but lost to Maria Sharapova despite having led by a set and 4-0. Sharapova herself has been playing some good tennis and is still looking to win her first French Open title, the only major to have eluded her in her stunning career. Angelique Kerber is also coming into the tournament in form after having an amazing year so far which has seen her rise to number 10 in the world. Of course these are the players in good form but form often counts for nothing when it comes to major tournaments. The important thing for all the women is to make it through to the second week at all costs and play their way into form from there. An important factor in the progression to the second week is of course the draw which was made by men's defending champion Rafael Nadal on Friday. So I'm going to take a look at the four quarters of the draw and pick the quarter finalists before giving my prediction for the title.
          At the top of the draw is of course the top seed Victoria Azarenka and on first sight of her quarter of the draw she has got an easy first three matches which should allow her get into her stride very early. Alberta Brianti shouldn't pose any problems and a second round meeting with Dinah Pfizenmaier should be even more comfortable. I would expect Aleksandra Wozniak to be her third round match and again she should progress with ease. Dominika Cibulkova could be her fourth round opponent which would be match worth watching. I watched them play a few months back when Azarenka was still unbeaten for the year and Cibulkova blew her off the court but eventually the Belarussian scrope through the match but I don't think Cibulkova would let a lead slip again if they were to meet in this event so Azarenka will have to be at her best to progress. Things get even more difficult in the quarter final as she could meet 6th seed Sam Stosur or 12th seed Sabine Lisicki. I think Lisicki will get through to face Azarenka because Lisicki is a young energetic player with a lot of power and will hit through a lot of the weaker players in the field. She could face trouble in her third round against Petra Cetkovska who is more than capable of beating her but I think Lisicki is going to be too strong. Stosur can be very effective here with her kick serve but she is very short of confidence lately and lost in the opening round of the Australian Open and I don't think she will have enough to beat Lisicki. So I'm expecting a Lisicki-Azarenka quarter final.
         In the second quarter we are going to have a lot very high quality matches and I think a lot of upsets. Third seed Agnieszka Radwanska will be the favourite to make the quarter finals but in order to do so she has to beat some very talented players. Her opening match should be comfortable against Bojana Jovanovski but a second round meeting against Venus Williams will be an interesting tie. Williams a few years ago would have steamrolled Radwanska but lacking fitness and match practice I think Radwanska should beat her in two tight sets. Svetlana Kuznetsova awaits in round three and again it's another tough match. I think she will win it but she will be pushed all the way. It doesn't get any easier in round four as she could face either clay court specialist Sara Errani or the rejuvenated Ana Ivanovic who is a past champion here and knows her way around the red dirt. I would expect Ivanovic to just about beat Errani to meet Radwanska and I do think Ivanovic will beat the the Polish third seed. I think Ivanovic has shown promise this season and looks to be making a return to her best form and this tournament will give her a chance to show just how far she has come. At the other side of this quarter we have the girl I think has an outside chance of going all the way here, Angelique Kerber. She has been outstanding this year and is now a top ten player and I think she will progress to the quarter finals despite a very difficult draw. She has an easy first two rounds but a third round meeting with possibly Flavia Pennetta is a potential stumbling block. Pennetta is a good clay court player and I like the way she moves around the court but Kerber should have too many shots for the Italian. She would be seeded to meet Marion Bartoli in the fourth round but I think Bartoli could be beaten early here. She may have the crowd on her side but she has played some awful tennis recently especially last week when losing to Urszula Radwanska in straight sets. I think Petra Martic might cause her problems but she should be able to just about pull through but I don't see her making it further than round three. Anabel Medina-Garrigues is likely to be her third round opponent and I think the Spaniard would beat Bartoli as she is a very accomplished clay court player. Medina-Garrigues faces Laura Robson in the first round and that's one where she could slip up. If she gets through that then I'd expect her to make the fourth round but if Robson beats her then Bartoli might make the fourth round. Either way I don't see any of those players beating Kerber. I would expect to see Angelique Kerber to play Agnieszka Radwanska in the quarter final.
          Defending champion Na Li is in the third quarter and although first round opponent Sorana Cirstea is very good player I don't think she will beat Li who should comfortably make round four although I am going to be keeping an eye on the progress of two young players with bright futures. Christina McHale and Kiki Bertens face off in the first and both are very good players. McHale especially is one I think might make the top ten in the remainder of this year or next year. If she faces Li in round three and brings her best game then she might be able to cause a shock but I think it might be too much to ask too soon. In the fourth round she could face one of three players in my opinion. Vera Zvonareva, Roberta Vinci and Carla Suarez Navarro will battle it out for the right to face Li. I think Zvonareva will win be the one to make the fourth round. She is starting to play better and I fancy her to make the fourth round although I don't think she could beat Li. In the bottom half of this section Petra Kvitova is the fourth seed and should reach the fourth round with ease. In that fourth round it's likely she will face 2010 champions Schiavone. Schiavone made the final last year and will like her chances of going far again and I think she will reach the fourth round with ease but Kvitova will prove a step too far. So that leaves a Li-Kvitova quarter final.
          In the fourth quarter of the draw we have the two favourites for the title. I'm not even sure what I can say about this quarter other than it will be a Sharapova-Williams quarter final. The only playesr who could upset Sharapova would be young talented Russians Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Maria Kirilenko. Pavlyuchenkova has got a bright future ahead of her but I don't see her beating Sharapova especially with Maria in such good form. Kirilenko is very capable of beating Sharapova but I don't think she could do it on clay. As for Williams there are also two dangerous players in her part of that quarter. Kaia Kanepi has been in good form lately and had some good wins and she would relish a shot at Williams but I think Serena is playing so well she won't lose too early here. Caroline Wozniacki has certainly got potential to go deep into this tournament but I think not having won a major is weighing heavily on her mind and although I think she will have a great summer I don't think she will have a successful French Open. So Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will meet in the quarter final and it should be an unbelievable match that wouldn't be out of place on final Saturday.
          I won't go into detail on the quarter finals until we see for certain who makes it there but I will talk about who I think will make the semi finals and final. I would expect Azarenka to face Kerber in one semi final. I think Azarenka will scrape past Lisicki and Kerber will upset Radwanska. In that semi I think Kerber will finally be beaten as the Belarussian Azarenka is playing very well and has all the shots to hit through Kerber. Azarenka also has got the big game mentality that counts for a lot in Grand Slams. I also saw Azarenka destroy Sharapova on a hard court a few months back and it was scary how good she was. Although it wasn't on clay, I still think it was important as it was her ground strokes and consistency that were phenomenal. So I would expect Azarenka to be at her brilliant best and make the final. In the other semi final I think Na Li will face off against Sharapova. I think Kvitova isn't quite up to fitness levels required for clay yet and that's the only thing stopping her being a finalist here. She will have a great summer but she will fall short here. I'm also giving Sharapova the nod over Williams as I think Sharapova is so focused on completing her career Grand Slam that she will find a way to get through the tough matches just like she did against Li last week in Rome when she fought back from a set and two breaks down to win. Williams is getting back to her best but Sharapova is fitter, stronger and more determined at the moment and that will be the difference. In the semi final I think Li will be beaten by Sharapova again. Li isn't strong enough mentally which seems strange considering she won the title last year. She hasn't really kicked on since then and she completely fell apart against Sharapova last week. With victory in her sight her serve and groundstrokes just deserted her. Sharapova will beat Li and that leaves us with Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. I do truly believe that no matter what upsets occur, and there will be plenty, at the end of two stunning weeks of tennis we will have Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. Who wins the final is anybody's guess. It's almost impossible to separate the two but if I had to pick I would probably give Azarenka the nod because if it gets deep into a third set I'm not convinced Sharapova's serve will hold up in a Grand Slam final, especially here when she's looking to win the only slam to have eluded her. They are the two best players at the moment and they are both playing great tennis. I think they will give us a fascinating final that will showcase all that is great about the women's game right now. It's become more competitive and there are now a number of players playing at a very high level. I think that these two in the final would be a great advertisement for the sport and we can look forward to not only the men's at Wimbledon and the Olympics but also the women's.
         

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