Sunday May 27th sees the start of the second major tournament of 2012 as players make the trip to the beautiful red clay of Paris. So far we've seen a very entertaining clay court season which looks like culminating in a thrilling two weeks of clay court tennis as the players battle it out for the second Grand Slam of the year. Last year, we saw Roger Federer end Novak Djokovic's unbelievable unbeaten run in a stunning semi final only for Rafael Nadal to take down the Swiss maestro for his 6th French Open crown. This year has seen a number of players make giant leaps in their career and catapulted a host of players into Grand Slam contention. Juan Martin Del Potro is beginning to get back to his best, Thomas Berdych is pushing the top players very very close now and is reaching the quarter finals and semi finals on a regular basis, David Ferrer has been brilliant this year and in his last three clay events has only fallen to Nadal and Federer and Nadal again. A number of Frenchmen have played well in recent months and will look to keep the title on French soil for the first time since Yannick Noah in 1983. Gilles Simon is on the verge of the top 10 once again and has had some great results recently, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has cemented down the number 5 ranking and is a threat at any tournament while Richard Gasquet is beginning to fulfil some of his potential after a final appearance in Estoril and defeating Andy Murray in Rome. So French hopes of having an interest deep into the second week are strong this year. Of course nobody could confidently discount Roger Federer from picking up another Grand Slam as he continues his quest to regain the number one ranking. However, this year history beckons for two players and it seems like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course to meet in the final for a 4th consecutive Grand Slam.
As tennis fans we are lucky to have two outstanding athletes and two men who love the sport as much as they do at the very top of the game. In the past 18 months they have dominated the sport with some incredible tennis and have developed a thrilling rivalry which looks certain to last for more years to come. Djokovic had beaten Nadal in seven consecutive finals including at Wimbledon, US Open and of course the Australian Open. But during this clay court season Nadal has twice got the better of the Serb and it seems like he has finally overcome that mental barrier and now it looks like we are set for a fascinating rivalry. I do think we can expect to see these men in the French Open final and if we do it will be unmissable final where the winner will create a piece of history. Djokovic is looking to do what the likes of Nadal, Federer and Sampras have all failed to do and that is to hold all four major titles at one time. It would be an amazing achievement and would surely allow him enter the talk of the greatest player ever. His biggest challenge would be to beat Nadal at Roland Garros, a feat only Robin Soderling has done and Nadal was clearly troubled by knee injuries that year. Nadal himself is chasing history. The Spaniard is looking to become only the 6th player to win seven titles in one major. Both players will be highly motivated for the tournament and unless somebody plays at an extremely high level and causes a huge upset I don't see anybody stopping these two from meeting in yet another final. I don't think Federer has the game to beat Rafa in Paris and more importantly I don't think he truly believes he can beat him. I also don't think he can beat Djokovic in a major as I think Djokovic has got too much stamina and too much creativity for Federer. Scot Andy Murray is still looking for his first major but I don't think he is ever going to win here and with each major that passes it's becoming less likely he will win one. So it's unlikely that anybody outside of the three wins the title here and even that is at a push as it seems Novak and Rafa are a class above the rest at the moment but as is the case with every Grand Slam anything can happen and everyone has to be at their best if they are to get deep into the second week.
Last year's Women's champion Na Li made the draw for the Men's singles on Friday and in that draw Djokovic was placed in Federer's half and Murray in Nadal's. Djokovic is at the very top of the draw and has been given a tricky route through and no doubt he will be challenged on his way to the later stages. Potito Starace is his first match and shouldn't provide any problems but a second round match with Lleyton Hewitt would be a tough match as Hewitt still has the ability to make the top players work very hard for points but ultimately he won't have enough to actually get over the line and win. In round 3 the Serb is likely to face Austrian Jurgen Melzer. That would be a good match for Novak as it will give him practice against a left hander which may be useful for the final. Even better for Djokovic could be a meeting in round 4 against left handed Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco beat Nadal recently but that was on the controversial blue clay in Madrid and Djokovic would have no problems with him if he were to face him. Verdasco has got to beat probably Gilles Muller and then either Nikolay Davydenko or Andreas Seppi in order to reach the fourth round. That's when the easy bit is finished for Novak and he begins to face some stern tests. A quarter final against more than likely Gilles Simon or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits and it will take all of Djokovic's skills to navigate that obstacle. Stanislas Wawrinka will be hoping he can force his way through to meet Djokovic but I think Simon is playing too well lately to lose early in his home Grand Slam.
In the second quarter Roger Federer (3rd seed) faces Tobias Kamke in the first round and should progress minimum fuss. A mouthwatering second round match with David Nalbandian would give the Swiss star a strong workout. The Argentine has got a very good record against Federer and will fancy his chances after some good form this year but I think over five sets Federer will overcome Nalbandian. The old foes don't stop there for Fed. A possible meeting with Andy Roddick awaits in the third round although Roddick has a tricky match with Nicolas Mahut in the opening round. Looking at his draw Roger has got a relatively easy route to the quarter final. A fourth round clash with Feliciano Lopez or Radek Stepanek isn't going to frighten Fed and it's not really until the quarter final that he comes into danger of actually losing. Juan Martin Del Potro and Thomas Berdych are fighting it out to face Federer in the quarter final and those two meeting in the fourth round would be a thrilling match as both have been sensational so far this season and their match in Madrid a few weeks ago was brilliant. I fancy Berdych to win that one and I'd even go as far to say he will beat Federer in the quarter final. I just think he's been brilliant this year and should have so many more wins than he has but has lost matches in final sets and is beaten only by the very best players and I think this might just be his tournament. I see him making a semi final against Djokovic and I would fancy that to go four or possibly five sets but ultimately it will be Djokovic in the final.
In the third section of the draw Andy Murray (4th seed) has got a very difficult task to make it deep into the second week. An easy opening two rounds against Tatsuma Ito and then probably Jarkko Nieminen won't pose too much problems but a third round encounter with Bernard Tomic would be an intersting match. Tomic is surely going to beat a top player at a Grand Slam soon but I don't think this is his time. Personally, I don't see Murray making it past the fourth round. He could face Richard Gasquet who beat him a few weeks ago in Rome or else Aleksandr Dolgopolov. I think Gasquet will beat Murray again simply because he plays aggressive and he is a shot maker that will expose Murray as a defensive player as hedid in Rome. Murray is hyped up under Lendl as being more aggressive and mentally stronger but I really don't see it apart from the first round or two of a tournament where he isn't under pressure. I also think Tommy Haas might be able to cause an upset or two in that section. He has played very well since returning to the tour and qualified with ease last week. A very interesting fourth round match from this section would be John Isner and David Ferrer. Ferrer has been outstanding this year but falls just short of winning the big tournaments when he faces Nadal, Federer and Djokovic while Isner has beaten both Federer and Djokovic this year and last year pushed Nadal to five sets in the first round. I think Ferrer will beat the big American and beat whichever of Gasquet, Murray or Dolgopolov to reach the semi finals. Sadly for Ferrer in the semi final he will once again face Rafa Nadal who he just cannot beat on clay. Ferrer would have every clay court tournament in the game won if he never faced Nadal.
Nadal is in the fourth section of the draw as second seed and really doesn't face much problems in his opening matches. Simone Bolelli won't have any weapons to push the Spaniard and neither will Denis Istomin or Florian Mayer. A fourth round match with Milos Raonic could be very interesting. I think on any other surface and over three sets Raonic might beat Nadal but here in Paris on clay, I just don't see it happening. For Raonic to reach that stage he would have to beat Juan Monaco which is also a very difficult task for him. Monaco is a very acomplished clay court player and if Raonic does beat him and reach the fourth round it will be a very successful French Open for him even if it does end against Nadal. In the quarter final Nadal could face in form Serb Janko Tipsarevic or Nicolas Almagro. Tipsarevic just helped Serbia win the World Team Championships where he beat Thomas Berdych in the first singles rubber of the final. Almagro just won the title in Nice and it would be a fascinating match between these two for the right t play Nadal. Sam Querrey is Tipsarevic's first round opponent and that's the sort of match he could lose if he isn't on his game while Philip Kohlschreiber will be Almagro's toughest test although I wouldn't see Almagro losing that. I think it will be an all-Spaniard quarter final between Almagro and Nadal which Nadal should win in straight sets.
So in my opinion we will see Novak Djokovic and Thomas Berdych in one semi final and Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer in the other. As good as Ferrer and Berdych are and have been this season I don't think either would be capable of winning three sets off Djokovic or Nadal. That would leave us with the Nadal and Djokovic final that will go down as a historic occasion no matter who wins. As i said a few weeks ago both players had something to prove in Rome when they got back onto the red clay and they proved it when they provided us with a thrilling dress rehearsal for what may be to come in a fortnight's time. I think it would be a thrilling match and although Djokovic has won the last three Grand Slams I just don't think he can beat Nadal in Paris. Nadal is almost unbeatable here and with the confidence of beating Djokovic twice on clay already this season he will be confident of regaining his crown. He has only lost once and that was when he was clearly injured and suffering from knee problems which also forced him out of Wimbledon. Apart from that nobody has really come close to beating him here. He hold a 45-1 record here and I think he will make it seven Roland Garros titles. The events of the clay court season so far and all the great matches we have seen it look set to end with a thrilling French Open filled with great tennis and that's exactly what I'm expecting from the next two weeks.
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