The Masters 1000 series makes it's fourth stop of the year this week in the Spanish capital of Madrid. In 2009 when the calendar was restructured, this event was changed from indoor hard courts to clay courts and moved from the end of the season to the middle of the clay court campaign. The tournament has always attracted the very best and the last three winners have been Djokovic (against Nadal), Nadal (against Federer) and Federer (against Nadal). If the last three years are anything to go by then we should have a high standard of tennis for the week and a high quality final. The draw was done yesterday and I'm going to take a quick look at the main contenders for the title.
Novak Djokovic makes his first appearance since losing in the final of Monte Carlo to Rafael Nadal a few weeks ago and he takes his place as the top seed in the draw with Nadal at number two. Roger Federer is the third seed and is playing in his first clay court event of the season although he did play for Switzerland against the USA in Davis Cup on clay. World number four Andy Murray withdrew with a back injury and so Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the fourth seed. Without a doubt having looked at the draw this is the most competitive tournament of the year so far, with the exception of the Australian Open which is a grand slam. The other four seeds to receive a bye are David Ferrer (5), Thomas Berdych (6), Janko Tipsarevic (7) and John Isner (8). I think that, although the tournament has got a very high standard and there are lots of players seeded from 8-16 and some very good players unseeded, the winner of this event is likely to be from the top three seeds.
The altitude at Madrid often has an impact on the outcome of the event as players who usually don't have a chance of beating Nadal on clay have more of a chance here although in recent years he has improved significantly in dealing with the tricky conditions. Nadal has to be seen as the favourite for the title here after ending a long title drought by winning in Monte Carlo and following it up with another title in Barcelona. Djokovic as the defending champion is the obvious threat to the Spaniard but he has been paired in Roger Federer's half of the draw and logic would suggest that Nadal will be in the final and will face the winner of a Federer-Djokovic semi final. However, there are plenty of players who can disrupt the plans of the main trio. After suffering from an illness in Monte Carlo David Ferrer returned in style last week in Barcelona to push Nadal all the way in a thrilling final and he will be looking for another good run this week and in my opinion it's going to take either Federer or Djokovic to beat him. Tsonga will be looking to bounce back from his first round loss to a rejuvenated Tommy Haas this week in Munich with a good run here but he faces stiff competition for the right to play in the semi final from Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Aleksandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic who is in the final in Munich tomorrow. Thomas Berdych is in Nadal's section which all but rules out the possibility of him making a semi final appearance. Gilles Simon is a man on a hot streak and he is a dark horse this week and could provide a shock during the course of the week.
I think in terms of winning the title Nadal is the man to beat and I don't see anyone beating him before a final and even at that I don't see Djokovic overturning the result from Monte Carlo and I don't see Federer winning the title in his first clay tournament although he has been a prominent figure in this event in recent years. Most people will assume Federer and Djokovic will meet in the semi finals but I have my doubts. Federer has got a nightmare draw and it will require him stepping straight into top form to make it that far. Dkokovic is likely to have a very tricky quarter final tie against either Gilles Simon or Janko Tipsarevic although I would fancy Albert Ramos to upset Tipsarevic. Simon was outstanding against Rafa Nadal in Monte Carlo and then won the title in Bucharest the week after so he is on good form and he could give Djokovic a scare if he continues that form. Nadal, provided he doesn't suffer a complete shock upset, will have a difficult semi final match up. He could be facing any one of a number of players but giving how brilliant Del Potro has been this week in Estoril I think he will overcome Isner and Tsonga to reach the semi but he will be no match for Nadal on this surface. So I think this week we will see a third title on the bounce for Nadal as he continues his preparations for the French Open and he will assert his dominance over the best the tour has got to offer.
Finally I feel obliged to mention some of the thrilling first round matches that we will see in the opening days of the tournament. Rising star Milos Raonic takes on veteran David Nalbandian in what should be a fascinating match that I think the young Canadian will come through. The winner of that tie is rewarded with a chance to play against Federer. I actually think that Federer will be rusty this week after a few weeks away from the courts and Raonic, who was outstanding in Barcelona especially in dispatching Andy Murray in straight sets, could capitalise on that and score a huge win for himself. I think Kohlschreiber can continue on from his good week this week in Munich to beat Gael Monfils in another big first round match. With the courts seemingly having a low bounce this week the match between Radek Stepanek and Bernard Tomic could be a fascinating encounter as both players have got a wide variety of slices in the arsenal. I think Richard Gasquet will have too much for Thomaz Bellucci in their match and Marin Cilic will beat Spaniard Albert Montanes in a match that has the potential to be a thriller. Djokovic and Federer in particular have been given some very good players in their half and I think at least one of the two will be beaten early on and there will be plenty of upsets this week and it should be fascinating to see how it all plays out.
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