Thursday April 5th 2012 sees the beginning of the 76th US Masters. Since 1934 Augusta National has hosted the annual US Masters, one of golf's four major tournaments. It is the only major tournament not to alternate its venue each year which gives the players a chance to familiarise themselves with the course, something they cannot do for any other major. However, once the players place the ball on the first tee on the opening Thursday all the practice rounds they have played, all the preparation and all the form players had goes out the window. Every single player to have won the green jacket has walked off the 18th green with a sense of pride and every one of them has earned their victory. The winner every year is the player who over the four days played the best golf, played the most consistent golf and played the smartest golf. If previous years have shown us anything it is that three good rounds is never enough to win the Masters. Greg Norman suffered his worst Masters heartbreak when he played three good rounds in 1996 and held a six shot lead going into the final round and lost by five strokes to Nick Faldo after hitting a 78 in the final round. Rory McIlroy looked certain to win his first major last year after three good rounds and a good front nine in his final round and then suffered a major collapse and eventually shot an eight over par 80 to finish well off the lead. No player can take his foot off the gas for his final round at Augusta and still be successful because, as Rory McIlroy found out last year, one bad hole can cost you your whole tournament. This year will be no different.
Each hole at the private course is named after a tree or shrub with which the hole has become associated. The most treacherous of the holes is the 10th, the hole where McIlroy's Masters unravelled last year. Known as Camellia, this hole is traditionally the most difficult hole on the course and last year averaged less than eight birdies per round. After the 10th players move on to the 11th, 12th and 13th holes known collectively as Amen Corner. Come Sunday, these four holes are likely to have a huge bearing on the outcome of the tournament and the players that can negotiate these holes the most efficiently over the four days will give themselves a great chance of victory come Sunday.
So now let's look at who the likely contenders for the green jacket are. This year there a number of players who have reason to be optimistic. Let's start with two of last years biggest stories. Rory McIlroy returns to the scene of his collapse last year looking to make amends and after breaking his major duck last year at the US Open he comes into this years tournament with more experience with 17 top ten finishes since last year. He looks to be a very good and if he's the man you fancy to win it 11/2 is a very good price. I think it's going to be interesting to see how McIlroy copes when he reaches the 10th tee on Thursday and even more interesting to see how he reacts if he is still in contention and reaches the 10th on Sunday. Defending champion Charl Schwartzel has not won since last years Masters but did have a 4th place finish in the Cadillac Championship not long ago. The South African has got the game and the mentality to be a contender here and at 40/1 might be worth an each way bet.
One player who has experience in winning the Masters and is starting to return to the sort of form which saw him compete at the highest level for many years is Phil Mickelson. He had a good tournament last week and is coming in under the radar this year. He has shown in the past that he can play this course as well as anyone and I think Phil might just be a major contender come Sunday and at 11/1 he cannot be ignored. World number one Luke Donald has yet to win a major and a win here would end the critics of his number one status considering he hasn't had a win at a major. I don't think he has the sort of game that can really threaten this week. He will probably have four solid rounds which is always key at Augusta and he could stay within four or five shots of the lead all week but I don't think he will find enough birdies to push ahead into a lead of his own. He might sneak into an each way place but I don't think he's worth a bet this week. Lee Westwood comes into this years Masters hoping to finally end his major drought and at this stage I think nobody could begrudge Lee his win. He has come close on a number of occasions but has fallen just short every time. I don't think he will win it this week but if he can put together a good opening two days then anything can happen at the weekend. Nick Watney and Steve Stricker are no strangers to wins on the PGA Tour and both are capable of big things this week and I'm looking forward to seeing how these two perform this week. Both are priced at 55/1 and both might be worth a gamble. Other players to look out for this week are Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose and Adam Scott (all around 30/1) all of whom are capable players and can't be completely ignored.
However I'm looking at a few other players this week. American Bill Haas is a player I like very much. His natural game is suited to Augusta and I'm looking forward to seeing how he copes with the conditions and how he approaches the course this week. At 90/1 he is certainly worth an each way bet. Another American with the game to make an impact this week is Bubba Watson. Watson is 45/1 to win this week and after seeing his performances the past few weeks he definitely has the ability. He hits a natural high draw from right to left which it's said is the perfect way to play Augusta. If he can put four rounds together this week without getting too erratic then he might just tear this course apart. The problem with Bubba is consistency which might be enough to put people off backing him. Hunter Mahan is coming off some very big wins this year most noticeably at the Accenture Matchplay. His confidence is sky high and confidence is a great thing to have at the beginning of a major. The question is can he have another good week? I think he might struggle to win this week but I expect him to have a good showing.
Despite all those contenders and all the talent in the field this week, for me there is only one man to watch this week, Tiger Woods. Over the past year Woods has been getting progressively better and his first day at the Tavistock Cup and at times during his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he was playing the sort of golf that saw him dominate the game for years and other times he looked even better. A win here would certainly prove to everyone that Woods is back and in my opinion this week is going to be another step closer to Jack Nicklaus' major record. At 5/1 my money is on Tiger.
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