Miami Masters Tennis

This week the ATP tour lands in Miami, Florida for the second Masters 1000 tournament of the year. Players have very little break between this and last weeks Indian Wells tournament. Last week I said Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic would again square off in the final and it looked like it would happen until the semi finals where John Isner stunned Djokovic in a third set tie break and then Roger Federer beat Nadal in straight sets. Federer went on to beat Isner in the final to continue his good form. Since last years US Open where Fed suffered a heartbreaking semi final defeat to Djokovic he has only lost twice, once to Nadal at the Australian Open and then to John Isner in the Davis Cup. His form has been exemplary of late and he has to be considered as the favourite for the title here in Miami again. Somehow I don't think he will be the last man standing come the end of the week. I think fatigue has got to set in with Federer soon and last week there were signs of it against Thomas Bellucci when he was brought to three sets. There has to come a day soon when he just can't find rhythm on his groundstrokes. His shotmaking in the past months has been second to none but he can't possibly keep that up and although he has been playing well I still don't think he has the ability to match Nadal and Djokovic when it really matters. His win over Nadal last week should have been more convincing considering the circumstances. It was Nadal's first outing since the Australian Open and he was still able to compete with Federer, who has played and won three title since Melbourne. The conditions suited Fed to a tee. The extreme wind is usually music to Nadal's ears but playing Roger that's not what he needs. Federer was striking the ball superbly and was able to hit through the wind while Nadal's usual tactics of breaking down the Federer backhand weren't possible due to the severity of the wind. Instead of kicking up high and causing Fed problems the ball sat up in front of the Swiss star and allowed Federer attack Nadal off both wings. If they meet again this week in Miami and the conditions are perfect then Nadal will fancy his chances of gaining revenge.
          This weeks draw has placed Federer and Djokovic in the same half while Nadal and Andy Murray are paired in the bottom half of the draw. The top half seems to be the more difficult to progress from with players like Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Mardy Fish, Nicolas Almagro and Andy Roddick in that section. Del Potro had a very disappointing week last week after he again lost out to Roger Federer, for the third time in the past few weeks. It wasn't so much the scoreline and let's be honest there is no shame in losing to Federer but it was the manner of his defeat that worried me. He lacked energy on the court and never looked like hitting through Federer which for a man of his power is very worrying. I think he will have a stronger week this week and should progress to another quarter final at least with potential clashes with Marin Cilic and David Ferrer looking difficult on paper but I expect him to progress from those matches and make it to a potential quarter final with Novak Djokovic. Djokovic himself will look to improve upon last weeks performances where he was less than impressive in making the semi finals and his loss to John Isner was very un-Djokovic like. He faces a match with Marcos Baghdatis in the second round and that looks like being a very interesting match. Baghdatis took a set off Novak at his best last year at Wimbledon and will fancy an upset. Should Djokovic progress he could face Troicki and then a match Gasquet or Lopez. Nicolas Almagro is on I think could have a very good week here. He faces very winnable matches with Donald Young, Fernando Verdasco and then a possible match with Mardy Fish and I think he will win through to face Roger Federer in the quarter finals. Realistically Federer could only lose to Andy Roddick or Gael Monfils and in my opinion I think this week he might be suspect to an upset. Roddick could push Fed but I think Monfils is the man who may take him down and don't be surprised if Monfils does manage to beat Federer and go on to make semi finals. Should Federer make it to the semis he could face a blockbuster clash with Djokovic which would be very entertaining and could provide us with an idea of just how good Fed is playing. Personally I think Federer and Del Potro will face off yet again although Djokovic cannot be discounted too easily and Monfils has got a real chance of upsetting Federer.
         The bottom half is where Nadal and Murray lie and we also see Fernando Gonzalez play his final event as a professional. Unfortunately the draw hasn't been kind to Gonzo, although he can't complain seen as he made the draw himself. A first match with Nicolas Mahut will text the Chilean while Thomas Berdych awaits in the second round and if he managed to win that then he will have a final tournament to remember. David Nalbandian is looking to have another big week and a second round match with Janko Tipsarevic is going to be thrilling with Tipsarevic's energy being tested to the max by Nalbandians shot making. The winner of that is likely to face Aleksandr Dolgopolov where I would expect Nalbandian to win but if it's Tipsarevic I think Dolgopolov will come through while Thomas Berdych should beat any of those players. I expect Andy Murray to again be beaten early and this week I think Milos Raonic is the man who will take him down. Raonic was brilliant last week and despite under-performing against Federer he still took a set and competed at a very high level and this week I think he'll go one step further and beat Murray. The winner of Murray and Raonic is going to face Gilles Simon, Jurgen Melzer or Robin Haase. Simon is the likely man to progress but Haase can on his day beat any of those players but of late he hasn't been at his best. Rafa Nadal should comfortably progress from his part of the draw and only the winner of the potential clash between John Isner and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga stands between him and the semi finals. In the semis he could face Murray but if I am write in saying Murray will be upset then I think he'll face either Raonic or Berdych.
          In the end I expect to see Nadal back in the Miami final looking to win his first title since last years French Open. There he will hope to face Federer in normal conditions to avenge last week or Djokovic to avenge the last year of losing to the Serb. Other potential finalists are Del Potro, who needs to really improve on last weeks form but is very capable, Gael Monfils, who needs a lot of luck to make it there but I think could have a very strong week or the man I mentioned earlier Nicolas Almagro who has the ability and has been playing well lately. I hope we see Djokovic and Nadal start up there rivalry again and I still think Nadal will overcome the obstacle Djokovic is providing and I think we may have that as Djokovic has to play better this week and knows that beating Del Potro and Federer would put the thought back into everyones head that he is back at his best. Federer will fancy a meeting with the Serb to try erase last years US Open defeat but I don't think he'll relish playing Nadal again after Nadal pushed him last week despite unfavourable conditions. At the end of the week I expect Nadal to be holding the trophy aloft after a very entertaining week of tennis.