This week the ATP Tour reaches its conclusion with the ATP Masters 100 event in Paris being the final event of the regular season. For most players this will be their final event before they take a well earned break, but for some this week provides a chance to extend their season if they can reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London. Seven players have already qualified but after Rafael Nadal's withdrawal we now have two spots left to fight for this week in Paris. Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro have guaranteed their spots in London but all but one of them (Roger Federer) are competing here in Paris. So let's have a look at who the contenders to make the finals are.
In the seventh qualifying spot is Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga has been a regular at the year end championships and would be very disappointed to miss out. Working out the math of the situation it would require him losing in his first or second round and Richard Gasquet or Nicolas Almagro would have to win the tournament so I think Tsonga can be fairly certain of his place in London. He would meet Nicolas Almagro in the round of sixteen this week and that match would give Tsonga the chance to officially book his spot for next week. It might be still in the balance up until Thursday or Friday but Tsonga will be in London next week.
Janko Tipsarevic is currently in the final qualifying spot but he still has work to do to guarantee his qualification. He sits 300 points above Gasquet which means Gasquet needs a semi final spot at least to make it. If Tipsarevic reaches the quarter finals then it would require Gasquet, Almagro, Juan Monaco, Milos Raonic, John Isner or Marin Cilic winning the tournament to prevent him from making the finals next week. Whether he makes it or not is certainly not going to be known until Friday or Saturday at the earliest and if I was Tipsarevic, I would try my best to make sure I beat Murray in the quarter finals and take matters into my own hands. If he doesn't then I'm not sure he will make it.
Next in line is French man Richard Gasquet. Gasquet is struggling with a slight knee injury which could harm his chances of putting on a real performance this week. He is 300 points behind Tipsarevic so he needs at least a semi final appearance which would give him 360 points. Winning the tournament will put him through no matter what Tipsarevic does so it is still in his hands. Unfortunately, I don't see him winning the event. He's got Kevin Anderson in his first match and could then play Tomas Berdych. I think Berdych could win the title here this week so I don't see Gasquet putting a run together. It's been an improved and more consistent year for Gasquet but for this year at least it won't be good enough.
Nicolas Almagro is 400 points behind Tipsarevic so he needs to reach the finals to have a chance. In his way of making the finals is fellow contender Tsonga. If he beat Tsonga he could face Ferrer who he has never beaten in twelve meetings so things aren't looking good for Nico. Of course being in the semi finals he would still have to beat either Del Potro or Djokovic so for Almagro, the odds are heavily stacked against him. I don't think he has been at his best for most of this season but he can look ahead with confidence to 2013 because his season is certainly going to end here this week.
After Gasquet and Almagro we have four more players with mathematical chances of progress but it would require winning the title for them to do so. Winning a Masters 1000 event isn't easy but here in Paris it is possible to get a win over top ten players who will have one eye on London next week. Juan Monaco is one who has a chance but it looks as though a poor run of form since the US Open will cost him his place. He was in prime position not long ago but has failed to hit the heights of his game, heights which saw him break the top ten this Summer. I don't like his draw this week with a match with Grigor Dimitrov in the opening round being a nightmare match and Tipsarevic in his next. If he plays at his best then I think he might get a few wins but certainly not enough to qualify. Marin Cilic is the last in line to qualify and I really don't see him putting any kind of case forward this week. But before Cilic are two men who have the potential to cause some upsets and make the finals.
Milos Raonic and John Isner have both had solid seasons but, as a huge fan of both, I think they should have had a lot more success. Both of them are prone to very disappointing losses, for example Raonic lost to Querrey at Wimbledon and Isner lost to Falla. Raonic needs to take the next step up in the game soon. He needs a deep run in a Masters 1000 event or a Grand Slam and beat some top players along the way. He has had eight wins over top ten players this year but has also lost to ten players outside the top thirty. That's far too inconsistent. He definitely has the game and I see him being a Grand Slam winner and future top ten player. This week is huge for him. He could meet Djokovic in round three and although it is a daunting task it's one he should be relishing. Then he would meet Isner or Del Potro and from there he could have a chance at the title. It's hard to see him winning those matches but sooner or later he is going to make the breakthrough and I have a feeling it might be sooner. He has an outside chance of reaching London.
For Isner he needs to improve his return game. He wins just 11% of return games and if he could bring that up to 20% then he would see huge improvements in his game. He has the game to win majors but doesn't produce it on the big stage enough. His majors this year have been ended by Feliciano Lopez, Paul Henri Mathieu, Alejandro Falla and Philipp Kohlschreiber, all in five sets. No disrespect to those players but Isner is a much better player than all four. He has shown glimpses of his ability this season and next year I am optimistic that he can be a big time player. He beat Federer and Djokovic in the first three months of the season so we know he has the game. This week is a great chance for him. Del Potro has played two weeks straight in finals so he can't be fresh and Djokovic will have one eye on London. If Isner brings his best game to Paris then he could reach a final or even win the title. I think either he, or Raonic will go deep this week and one of them might end up in London, either automatically or as an alternate.
In terms of winning the title there are a number of contenders. I like Djokovic if he is focused fully on this week and not on London. Del Potro has put two great weeks together in a row. If he is still fully fit then he could be dangerous especially with only one loss on indoor courts this year. Tsonga has a great indoor record and will have home advantage this week so he might be looking at gaining some big momentum ahead of next week. Of all the players in the draw, the best career percentage on indoor courts is Milos Raonic with 74%. Andy Murray usually plays well on indoor but like Djokovic he is bound to be thinking of London so he can't be fully relied on. I like Tomas Berdych this week. I think he has improved significantly this year and will make a real push at the title especially with Federer pulling out.
No comments:
Post a Comment