Sunday 26 August 2012

US Open Men's Draw Preview

It's been a year filled with scintillating tennis and entertaining rivalries and this fortnight all of that comes to the greatest tennis tournament of the year in one of the greatest cities in the world, the US Open in New York City. For as long as I've been watching tennis this is the tournament I look forward to most each year. The atmosphere is always incredible as the fans really get involved and there isn't a better occasion in tennis than the night session at Flushing Meadows. This year us going to be even better with so many players fighting for the final major of the year. Roger Federer rediscovered his form to win another Grand Slam at Wimbledon. Novak Djokovic hasn't been his brilliant best since the early Summer but has looked sharp since getting back on the hard courts and will fancy his chances of retaining his title. Andy Murray won the Olympic gold medal but he has yet to show he's got what it takes to win a Grand Slam, however, this could very well be his year. It would be unusual to see somebody else win the title but I think with the strength of the game at the present time we could see somebody new lifting a major title. So now let's take a look at the draw section by section and how each player is shaping up.

Section 1         
As top seed Roger Federer is the clear favourite to progress from this section and reach the semi finals. The first three rounds look to be relatively easy for the Swiss as none of his possible opponents can really hurt him. Fernando Verdasco is his potential third round opponent and that is a very nice draw for Roger. In the fourth round he will face a tricky match against either Mardy Fish or Gilles Simon. Fish lost to Federer in Cincinnati but it was a close game and I think if Fish could have got a higher percentage of first serves in he would have had a real shot at winning so he knows what he has to work on. Simon has got the potential to be a top five player in my opinion but he falls short in confidence against the top players but if he starts believing in his game he can become a danger at Grand Slams. With the crowd behind him I think Fish will get past Simon to face Federer and try avenge his loss from last week. In the bottom half of this section Thomas Berdych is the 6th seed and will be looking to put a horrid run of form behind him and get back to the sort of form that saw him trouble Nadal in Rome and reach the Madrid finals this year. Since he got on to the grass his game has just vanished and he's barely put any wins on the board. Last week in Winston Salem he began to play well and reached the final where he narrowly lost to John Isner in the final. I expect to see the real Berdych this week and if he starts well his confidence will rise and he becomes a contender. He could face Roger Federer in the quarter final and he's beaten Roger at a Grand Slam before and three times on a hard court so he if he's playing well he might just fancy winning that. Other players in this section worth a mention are Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro who are both capable of big things. I would worry about Querrey's fitness after four straight weeks playing though. Almagro has a few tricky early games but if he gets through them he becomes dangerous.

Section 2
Third seed Andy Murray has been given a really tough draw as he pursues his first Grand Slam. I think Murray needed a nice draw to really give the title a shot. He is often guilty of losing sets early in Grand Slams and he can't afford to do that and still expect to be mentally and physically fit for the latter stages. I think he might struggle to make the quarter finals here with the draw he got but if he does somehow manage to make it and hasn't worn himself out then he could very well win his first Grand Slam. The opening two games should be straight forward for him but in the third round he could face Robin Haase who caused him all sorts of trouble last year. I expect Haase to beat Feliciano Lopez in the first round and go on to face Murray but Haase is so unpredictable anything could happen. I do expect Murray to reach the fourth round but he must do so without dropping a set or he will regret it later on. In the fourth round he is likely to face Canadian Milos Raonic who is swiftly rising up the rankings and is seeded 15 for this tournament. I've been full of praise for him all year and he has played phenomenally well at times but it is time he stepped up and went deep in a big tournament and I think he has a great chance here. Murray is kind of player he excels against and I see him beating him for the second time this year having beaten the Scot in Barcelona. In the bottom half of this section there are four possible quarter finalists in Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic, who meet in round three, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Jeremy Chardy who also meet in round three. Chardy beat Murray in Cincinnati but is inconsistent so it's hard to see him going far while Tsonga is consistently in the latter stages of majors so one would imagine he will be a quarter finalist. I don't think we'll see Cilic upset Tsonga but if Nishikori is firing then he could very well find himself ina quarter final.

Section 3
With Rafael Nadal out injured there is a glorious chance for somebody from this section to reach a semi final that previously would have required beating one of the top four. David Ferrer is the fourth seed but he will need to up his game if he's to make it there. He hasn't been his best since coming off the clay and after a gruelling run on the grass. He faces Kevin Anderson in a nightmare first round match and it will be a real test of the Spaniards quile if he is to come through that. He could face Lleyton Hewitt, Mikhail Youzhny or Gilles Muller in the third round and any of those would be tricky opponents on a hard court. The fourth round match will be very interesting from this section. It's likely to be Ferrer against either Richard Gasquet or Tommy Haas and either one would be able opponents against Ferrer. Gasquet has got all the shots and if he plays well then he could go very deep here. He was outstanding in Cincinnati until he was destroyed by Djokovic in the final. Haas has been a fantastic story to follow all year. A number of serious injuries threatened to end his career but he kept fighting and now finds himself on the verge of the top 20 again and if he continues his good form here then I see no reason he wouldn't beat Gasquet and Ferrer to reach a quarter final. In the other half of the section I think we have a contender in American John Isner. He will be the focus of home attention and despite some abnormal performances at Wimbledon and the early stages of the American hard court swing he does seem to be finding his form at the right time. He just won the title in Winston Salem and will be full of confidence heading to Flushing Meadows. Janko Tipsarevic might cause him some problems in round four but I think Isner will produce the goods this fortnight and reach at least a semi final. My only concern is the early games where he often vulnerable and guilty of trying to go through the motions and doesn't stay fully focused but it shouldn't be a problem for him in New York. On player in his section that I am looking forward to seeing is Grigor Dimitrov who is starting to live up to the expectations set upon him as a junior. I think he's finding his form and consistently playing good tennis and although he may not make his big entrance to the tour here he will become a top 15 player in the next twelve months.

Section 4
This section has got two genuine title contenders; Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. Djokovic hasn't been his best since he came off the clay and didn't seem to enjoy the grass court swing at all but there was signs in the Olympics that he was starting to hit the ball as cleanly as he did last year and the beginning of this year. He won the title in style in Toronto and reached the final in Cincinnati but he was completely out of sorts against Federer and never looked like winning but he should be fully ready for the start of this event where he's had so much joy in the past. He has got a very comfortable opening three rounds where I don't see anybody putting him under pressure. In round four he could face Aleksandr Dolgopolov who gave him a stern test here last year but I don't see Dolgopolov going far given the nightmare he had in Toronto and Cincinnati. Stanislas Wawrinka is likely to be the man facing Djokovic after his run to the semi finals in Cincy where he had a number of great wins. I still wouldn't see Novak losing to him though and Djokovic will be in the quarter finals. There he should meet 2009 Champion Del Potro. Delpo has been finding his best form this year and is slowly putting all the pieces together as he looks to return to the top of the game. We seen him excel at the French Open where had Federer demolished until he got injured and he looked sensational at times at the Olympics where his own poor execution left him down but once he gets it all together I don't see him staying outside the top four for long. He faces David Nalbandian in the first round and that's a blockbuster match up but I think Delpo will have to much for the wily competitor that is Nalbandian. With any other draw I'd say Ryan Harrison would go far but getting Del Potro in round two is very unfortunate but he is young and has the talent and even if he does go down in round two he will have his great days in New York and throughout the world in the coming years. It's going to come down to a quarter final between Djokovic and Del Potro and the winner of that will really fancy their chances of going all the way.

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