Andy Murray continues his quest for Grand Slam glory today when he comes up against tall Croat Marin Cilic on Court 1. Murray has defeated Russian Nikolay Davydenko, Ivo Karlovic and Marcos Baghdatis so far and although he beat Davydenko with ease his last two matches have not been too impressive. Karlovic is severely lacking with movement and ground strokes and yet he managed a set off Murray and wasn't far off getting another one. Baghdatis also took a set off Murray and it wasn't until they closed the roof that Murray took control. To beat Murray players need to adopt a simple three step tactic, attack the second serve, be strong in your own service games and be aggressive in the rally. I've always said that any player who plays aggressive against Murray and attacks his second serve regularly will beat him. It's not just abut hitting the ball hard like Karlovic did, you must hit it cleanly and with purpose. When players do that we see two things happen. Murray's first serve percentage drops which draws negative body language from him and then we see him take the pace off the first serve. This then gives players the chance to be aggressive on his first serve and if players can combine this with holding their own serve they have a very strong chance of winning against Murray. Players also need to approach the net against him. Karlovic won't trouble Federer, Nadal or Djokovic at a Grand Slam because their too experienced and they play patient tennis and take their opportunities but Murray was in all sorts of trouble against him. Karlovic has got 2 out of the 3 points needed to beat Murray. He had the easy service games, he had the net approach but he didn't have enough of the aggression off Murray's serve. Baghdatis was in almost all of Murray's service games in the opening three sets beacuse he played aggressive but he lost his own serve too often and was engaging in way too many long rallies. Murray's next opponent is Marin Cilic who's natural game ticks all three boxes.
Cilic was a player threatening to break through in 2010 when he reached the Australian Open semi final but he fell away in the remainder of that year and last year. He is a talented player and at 23 he still has time to develop into a top five player and I think he can do it. He's got the game to beat the very best and it wouldn't surprise me to see him win Grand Slams in the future, possibly the near future. The key for him is learning to utilise his serve to it's maximum potential and make it as unbreakable as possible. Then he needs to improve his consistency on the groundstrokes and learn when to be aggressive and when to be patient. If he can do that then he will reach the top ten at least. His fitness is something I would have questioned in the past but having watched quite a lot of him this season I think he has the fitness levels to compete consistently at the highest level. So I think he has it in him to win multiple titles he just needs to adopt the right mentality and find the sort of confidence that saw him win at Queens this year.
I think today could be a huge day not only in his year but for his career. Beating Murray would do wonders for his game and put him into a Wimbledon quarter final which would give him a huge boost. If Cilic plays the way I expect him to which would be his natural game then I see him exposing all the weaknesses in the Murray game. The first step for Cilic is to get his serve working from the start and give Murray no chances of breaking early. Cilic had 61% first serves in against Querrey and if he can post that number again he should be very solid on serve. That is the first step for him, being steady on serve. The next step is unsettling Murray and attacking his second serve. Murray will second serve into the middle of the box with no pace the majority of the time and it will sit into the comfort zone of Cilic. He restricted Querrey to just 47% of second serve points won and Querrey has got a very strong serve. Against Murray he will get a lot of joy from being aggressive. If he does that then he will cause Murray to drop his first serve speed and then he can attack the first and second serve. That's step two and possibly the most important, attacking the second serve, never leaving Murray get into a full rhythm. Finally he needs to play his ground strokes well. He has to play with some aggression and by that I don't mean hitting the ball his hardest every time. By that I mean he has to pick his spot and stick with it. As part of that aggression he needs to come into the net and take advantage of his big serves and heavy ground strokes. Against Querrey he came in to the net 70 times and won 50 of those points. He'll need to win a slightly bigger percentage today to find success.
If Cilic plays at his best today and has the right game plan then I see no reason he won't win this game and eliminate Murray. Fitness levels might be a little low after his epic encounter with Querrey Saturday but by playing the right way he won't waste too much energy. I think Cilic will win this match and if he plays at his best then he could win it comfortably like he did at the US Open in 2009 for the loss of just nine games. If he doesn't play aggressively and gets drawn into Murray's game then won't be successful but I have a feeling he will get it right today.
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