It's been a great week so far at SW19 and the quality of tennis is improving as each day passes. So far we've seen some of the main contenders of both draws eliminated as Thomas Berdych was beaten in round one while Sam Stosus and Caroline Wozniacki were also beaten early. Tomorrow is sure to provide us with some more top matches and possibly provide some more major upsets. I'm going to take a look at some of the games taking place and give my predictions for each match. To start I'm going to go through some of the schedule and talk about who is due to play and then I'll discuss some matches individually in detail.
On Centre Court we have three matches to be decided as Serena Williams, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal all return to court for their second round encounters. Williams faces Hungarian Melinda Czink in what should be a relatively straight forward game for the former champion. Williams returned to Grand Slam tennis in style with a comfortable win over Barbora Zahlavova Strycova having lost in the first round of her last major in Paris. Following that match home favourite Andy Murray takes on big serving Ivo Karlovic in what could be a tricky game for the Scot. If the 6'10 Croat serves a high percentage of first serves then he will be tough to break down but Murray is a strong returner of serve and will fancy himself to make it through. Second seed Rafael Nadal then takes to the court against Lukas Rosol in what should be a one sided contest. Rosol doesn't contain enough variety to trouble Nadal and it should be an easier task than his encounter with Bellucci on Tuesday. On Court 1 we have some very competitive matches beginning with Maria Sharapova who is looking to finish off her match with Tsvetana Pironkova leading 7-6 3-1 from tonight. Sharapova saved 5 set points in the first set as Pironkova looked to have control but couldn't close it out. If Pironkova can get a good start tomorrow then I wouldn't rule out her chances of coming back but a good start is essential. Sharapova needs to start off quick herself to close it out and hit the practice courts to prepare for Friday. James Ward takes on Mardy Fish afterwards in a match which Ward should be totally outclassed by the American who has had some health scares in recent months. Sam Querrey and Milos Raonic square off third on Court 1 in a battle of the big hitters. Querrey is rediscovering his form in recent months and I think he is in for a good Summer when he reaches the American hard courts but for Wimbledon his run ends tomorrow. Raonic has a huge serve that is proving very effective on the grass and he also possesses all the qualities that Querrey doesn't have. Raonic should progress from this war of attrition. Home girl Elena Baltacha faces a monumental task to reach round three as she takes on defending champion Petra Kvitova. Kvitova started sluggish in her opening game but she recovered sufficiently and found her range by the end and I think she will dispose of Baltacha ruthlessly. Other women who should be successful are Victoria Azarenka who faces Romina Oprandi and Marion Bartoli who takes on Mirjana Lucic. On the men's side we should see wins for Andy Roddick against Bjorn Phau, David Ferrer against Kenny De Schepper and Phillip Kohlschreiber against Malek Jaziri.
Some of the best matches of tomorrow will take place on the show courts where there are games which are almost too close to call. One match I think everyone should watch is the opening game on Court 9 where Finn Jarkko Nieminen faces American comeback sensation Brian Baker. Baker spent over five years out of the game with injuries and had to have multiple surgeries and feared he would never get to play again. However, last year he got back on the court ad began a long process which led him to an incredible return to action where he has had some good success. Having qualified for his first Wimbledon he is in round two with a great chance to make it through to a fourth round meeting with Rafael Nadal. Nieminen is a solid player that won't give you the game you have to earn it. He played some good tennis on the clay this year and had a great win over Feliciano Lopez in round one. I think Baker will be the winner of this one after a gruelling encounter but certainly one worth watching.
Another match that should be of high quality is on Court 12 where stylish Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis takes on Queens semi finalist Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov was always compared to Roger Federer but never lived up to the hype while Baghdatis made a Grand Slam final in Australia losing to the great Federer. Dimitrov has been steadily improving this season in my opinion and I think his game looks very good on the grass. This match is very difficult to call as Baghdatis has got great ability which has seen him play well here in the past but Dimitrov is young and determined and is playing with a sense of freedom which makes him a joy to watch. I am giving a slight nod to Dimitrov in this one but it will be close, possibly five sets.
Varvara Lepchenko and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova face off on Court 17 in a match which contains two talented women capable of big things. Lepchenko has improved significantly since gaining American citizenship last year and had a stunning run at Roland Garros reaching round four and will be hoping for similar results here at Wimbledon. Pavlyuchenkova is a talented youngster who needs to begin fulfilling her potential. She has played well this season but has lost to a lot of the top players. Her last two tournaments have been more consistent than normal for her which is a step in the right direction and I think she is capable of making a very good run here. This one should be a very entertaining match and I expect Pavlyuchenkova to get through in three sets.
Court 18 plays host another high quality match as Ekaterina Makarova looks to continue her goo grass court form against German Angelique Kerber. Makarova has been outstanding this year with a quarter final run at the Australian Open and lenghty runs in Miami and Sydney before reaching the semi finals in Birmingham and the quarter final in Eastbourne where she lost to Kerber. Kerber herself is on an amazing run. She has risen up the rankings dramatically in the past twelve months and now sits inside the top ten. This season she has reached four semi finals and won two titles in Paris and Copenhagen and was a finalist in Eastbourne. During that time she's beaten Sharapova, Bartoli, Kvitova, Venus Williams, Wozniacki, Jankovic and Li all of whom are top class players. Kerber is pushing towards the summit of the sport and I expect her to progress to another quarter final at least here. Makarova will be a stiff test but one which she should pass with flying colours.
So that's a look at some of the matches taking place tomorrow and it's clear to see there is a lot to look forward to.
Bet of the Day: David Goffin to beat Jesse Levine at 4/9 is my bet of the day for Thursday. Goffin is a talented young Belgian that should have too much for Levine. This game just beats the price for Mardy Fish to beat James Ward. Fish was apparently sick after his win Tuesday which is turning me off backing him but 1/3 is very generous.
Accumulator of the Day: Brian Baker (vs Nieminen), Gilles Simon (vs Malisse), Angelique Kerber (vs Makarova) and Aleksandr Dolgopolov (vs Paire) all to win works out around 5/1.
Potential Upset of the Day: Francesca Schiavone to be beaten by Kristyna Pliskova is currently 7/4. The Italian looks very beatable on the grass and I think Pliskova might upset the odds.
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Monday, 25 June 2012
Wimbledon- Day 1 Picks
With Wimbledon starting tomorrow I'm going to give my predictions for the first day's action. On Centre Court tomorrow we have three matches as Novak Djokovic, Maria Sharapova and Thomas Berdych open their accounts. Djokovic faces Juan Carlos Ferrero in what should be an entertaining match. Ferrero has the ability to beat Novak but I think at his age he won't have it in him to win three sets. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a set but if not I expect three very tight sets going to Djokovic. Sharapova should be a convincing winner in her match with Rodionova and I expect Berdych to beat Gulbis. Gulbis has got ability but Berdych has taken too much of a step forward to go backwards now. Court 1 looks to be a very interesting schedule with Nalbandian and Tipsarevic opening up before Federer takes on Albert Ramos. Kim Clijsters and Jelena Jankovic are the last game on court. I would expect Federer and Clijsters to win their matches but the other game is tough. Nalbandian may be unseeded but he is very capable of beating Tipsarevic. I would gove a slight nod to Nalbandian to win it to try make up for his disqualification at Queens. Another court worth watching is Court 2 where Radwanska and Venus Williams should both open their campaigns with wins. Stakhovsky is one who might beat the 28th seed Stepanek and young Olly Golding will fancy his chances of beating Igor Andreev which would be a major shock.
In terms of betting the only real way to make money is with accumulators and they can be tricky to get right. The odds for the top players are very short so often it takes up to 15 players to make a worthwhile accum. Tomorrow I think there might be value in the matches taking place.Of the best value odds tomorrow there are a few I would look at. Fabio Fognini has been in good form in recent weeks and he is 7/4 to beat Michael Llodra tomorrow which is a very good bet. Nalbandian is 11/10 to beat Tipsarevic tomorrow also with the Serb at 4/6. With some bookies refunding losing 5th set bets both of those matches are worth a bet. Gilles Muller has played well here before and is evens to beat Benneteau which for me is terrific value. Ryan Harrison is just 4/6 to beat Yen Hsun Lu which is great odds to me, I think Harrison will win that one comfortably. A nice four part bet of Harrison, Muller, Clijsters and Stakhovsky pays around 11/1 which might be worth a small bet. A more safe bet would be to include the bigger names and the best I could find out of those would be Djokovic, Sharapova, Berdych, Federer, Gasquet, Verdasco, Radwanska, McHale, Isner, Kirilenko, Petzschner, Mahut, Venus Williams, Li and Stosur pays out around 3/1 which is a very good price and I think is a safe bet.
For some more value I think the closer matches are the ones to watch. Picking three or four close matches will pay better price than picking fifteen certain matches. Flavio Cipolla, Tsvetana Pironkova, Melanie Oudin, Petra Cetkovska, Andrea Seppi and Steve Darcis as a six part accumulator pays around 7/1 which again is a very nice price.
So those are some of my tips for tomorrow's matches. As the day goes on keep an eye on my facebook page where I will be giving some individual match betting tips. Also anybody who wants to give their opinions on the matches feel free to post them on the page which can be found at Facebook.com/AmateurSportsJournalism. Good luck with the tips.
In terms of betting the only real way to make money is with accumulators and they can be tricky to get right. The odds for the top players are very short so often it takes up to 15 players to make a worthwhile accum. Tomorrow I think there might be value in the matches taking place.Of the best value odds tomorrow there are a few I would look at. Fabio Fognini has been in good form in recent weeks and he is 7/4 to beat Michael Llodra tomorrow which is a very good bet. Nalbandian is 11/10 to beat Tipsarevic tomorrow also with the Serb at 4/6. With some bookies refunding losing 5th set bets both of those matches are worth a bet. Gilles Muller has played well here before and is evens to beat Benneteau which for me is terrific value. Ryan Harrison is just 4/6 to beat Yen Hsun Lu which is great odds to me, I think Harrison will win that one comfortably. A nice four part bet of Harrison, Muller, Clijsters and Stakhovsky pays around 11/1 which might be worth a small bet. A more safe bet would be to include the bigger names and the best I could find out of those would be Djokovic, Sharapova, Berdych, Federer, Gasquet, Verdasco, Radwanska, McHale, Isner, Kirilenko, Petzschner, Mahut, Venus Williams, Li and Stosur pays out around 3/1 which is a very good price and I think is a safe bet.
For some more value I think the closer matches are the ones to watch. Picking three or four close matches will pay better price than picking fifteen certain matches. Flavio Cipolla, Tsvetana Pironkova, Melanie Oudin, Petra Cetkovska, Andrea Seppi and Steve Darcis as a six part accumulator pays around 7/1 which again is a very nice price.
So those are some of my tips for tomorrow's matches. As the day goes on keep an eye on my facebook page where I will be giving some individual match betting tips. Also anybody who wants to give their opinions on the matches feel free to post them on the page which can be found at Facebook.com/AmateurSportsJournalism. Good luck with the tips.
Wimbledon Preview- Women's Contenders
With the women's game I think we have a very open tournament with up to 12 players having a genuine chance of winning the title. I'm going to look at the main contenders that I would be looking for.
Maria Sharapova is the obvious choice and no wonder. She picked up her first French Open title and completed her career Grand Slam in doing so. Although she is playing some great tennis she wasn't tested in winning the French and I still haven't been convinced her second serve will hold up under pressure. It didn't here at Wimbledon last year. I actually don't think she will go too far in Wimbledon. I'm particularly liking her second round opponent Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova has been brilliant at the Championships the last two years in reaching the semi final and quarter finals beating Venus Williams both years. She recently destroyed Agnieszka Radwanska in her first grass court game of the year. It's the big hitters she enjoys playing as her results will show. She's beaten players such as Kerber, Petrova and Li this year which proves her talent. I think she can beat Sharapova and progress far in the tournament yet again. If Sharapova does win that one then I think she has the ability to go all the way provided she serves well.
Serena Williams is another obvious choice with her Wimbledon record. I think she's coming to the end of her career now and we won't see much more of her at the highest level. She seems to be losing the drive she had in previous years. Having said that she certainly cannot be ruled out. She has the best grass court game of them all and won't fear anyone. The problem will come from players who can get her moving as she won't have the fitness to go three gruelling sets with players for two weeks. After her shock first round exit at the French Open she will be out to prove she still has it here and we should see some of the best of Williams early on. Whether she can win the title remains to be seen.
Victoria Azarenka is coming in to this looking to add to her Australian Open title. She was disappointing in Paris but I'm sure we'll see a much improved performance from her. She is a very talented player that is hitting her best form this year. I've seen her crush the very best this year and I think if she plays at her best nobody will stop her winning the title here. She bullied Sharapova around the court already this year and has done the same to many other top players. I like her chances of at least making semi finals. Having won a Grand Slam already she won't let her nerves get the better of her and I wouldn't be surprised to see her win the tournament out.
Agnieszka Radwanska is another player looking at a long run here. She hasn't won a major yet and will fancy her chances of doing so this year. She plays good solid tennis and is able to hit with the very best. She needs to go a step further and beat some of the top players at the Grand Slams. If she gets a few big wins under her belt at this tournament she will have the self belief to win. I don't think she will win the tournament but she could go deep into the second week.
Defending champion Petra Kvitova has got real chances of winning the title again. She plays brilliantly here and on her game is a handful for anyone. Her serve is often the key and she wins a lot of cheap games with it. I don't see anyone that can safely believe they can beat her. She is my favourite to win the title as long as she keeps playing the sort of tennis we've come to expect from her.
The real dark horse for the title for me is Kim Clijsters. She is playing in her last Wimbledon and is looking to win it for the first time to complete her career slam. It would be nice to see her complete it as she has worked so hard at adapting to the modern game since her return and the amount of commitment she has put into the game. If she plays her best here then I think she can go all the way. At her best not many of the players today could keep up with her. I hope we see her give a very good showing in her final appearance here before retiring after the US Open this year.
Other players looking for a run here and very capable of it are Ana Ivanovic, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki and Na Li but I'm not sure how far any of those could go. Players who could actually go far are Angeliqe Kerber and Dominika Cibulkova who both have had good seasons but I don't know how could they can be on the grass. Kerber is in the top five players of the season and could be dangerous here too if she transfers that form over to the grass.
It's difficult to predict who will win with the high quality of players and the unpredictability of the women's game. I'm almost certain we will see upsets in the women's draw every day and that will add to the excitement of the fortnight. I look forward to seeing the draw unfold and just which players will emerge throughout the fortnight as the contenders and which players will surprise everyone in making the breakthrough.
Maria Sharapova is the obvious choice and no wonder. She picked up her first French Open title and completed her career Grand Slam in doing so. Although she is playing some great tennis she wasn't tested in winning the French and I still haven't been convinced her second serve will hold up under pressure. It didn't here at Wimbledon last year. I actually don't think she will go too far in Wimbledon. I'm particularly liking her second round opponent Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova has been brilliant at the Championships the last two years in reaching the semi final and quarter finals beating Venus Williams both years. She recently destroyed Agnieszka Radwanska in her first grass court game of the year. It's the big hitters she enjoys playing as her results will show. She's beaten players such as Kerber, Petrova and Li this year which proves her talent. I think she can beat Sharapova and progress far in the tournament yet again. If Sharapova does win that one then I think she has the ability to go all the way provided she serves well.
Serena Williams is another obvious choice with her Wimbledon record. I think she's coming to the end of her career now and we won't see much more of her at the highest level. She seems to be losing the drive she had in previous years. Having said that she certainly cannot be ruled out. She has the best grass court game of them all and won't fear anyone. The problem will come from players who can get her moving as she won't have the fitness to go three gruelling sets with players for two weeks. After her shock first round exit at the French Open she will be out to prove she still has it here and we should see some of the best of Williams early on. Whether she can win the title remains to be seen.
Victoria Azarenka is coming in to this looking to add to her Australian Open title. She was disappointing in Paris but I'm sure we'll see a much improved performance from her. She is a very talented player that is hitting her best form this year. I've seen her crush the very best this year and I think if she plays at her best nobody will stop her winning the title here. She bullied Sharapova around the court already this year and has done the same to many other top players. I like her chances of at least making semi finals. Having won a Grand Slam already she won't let her nerves get the better of her and I wouldn't be surprised to see her win the tournament out.
Agnieszka Radwanska is another player looking at a long run here. She hasn't won a major yet and will fancy her chances of doing so this year. She plays good solid tennis and is able to hit with the very best. She needs to go a step further and beat some of the top players at the Grand Slams. If she gets a few big wins under her belt at this tournament she will have the self belief to win. I don't think she will win the tournament but she could go deep into the second week.
Defending champion Petra Kvitova has got real chances of winning the title again. She plays brilliantly here and on her game is a handful for anyone. Her serve is often the key and she wins a lot of cheap games with it. I don't see anyone that can safely believe they can beat her. She is my favourite to win the title as long as she keeps playing the sort of tennis we've come to expect from her.
The real dark horse for the title for me is Kim Clijsters. She is playing in her last Wimbledon and is looking to win it for the first time to complete her career slam. It would be nice to see her complete it as she has worked so hard at adapting to the modern game since her return and the amount of commitment she has put into the game. If she plays her best here then I think she can go all the way. At her best not many of the players today could keep up with her. I hope we see her give a very good showing in her final appearance here before retiring after the US Open this year.
Other players looking for a run here and very capable of it are Ana Ivanovic, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki and Na Li but I'm not sure how far any of those could go. Players who could actually go far are Angeliqe Kerber and Dominika Cibulkova who both have had good seasons but I don't know how could they can be on the grass. Kerber is in the top five players of the season and could be dangerous here too if she transfers that form over to the grass.
It's difficult to predict who will win with the high quality of players and the unpredictability of the women's game. I'm almost certain we will see upsets in the women's draw every day and that will add to the excitement of the fortnight. I look forward to seeing the draw unfold and just which players will emerge throughout the fortnight as the contenders and which players will surprise everyone in making the breakthrough.
Sunday, 24 June 2012
Wimbledon Preview- Men's Contenders
It's that time of year again as we prepare for the lush green courts of Wimbledon for the 126th edition of the Championships. Monday sees the beginning of the main draw of both the men's and women's singles as players battle it out for the third Grand Slam of the year. This year looks set to be one of the most exciting years of tennis with the Olympics taking place a few weeks after the end of the Championships making this the longest grass court season of the open era. As part of my preview I'm going to look at ten players from the men's draw and ten from the women's draw that will be looking to make a huge impact. So my first post is starting with the men's singles so let's look at those players now.
1. Novak Djokovic. The Serbian comes into Wimbledon with his world ranking under threat for the first time since last year's event having lost at the French Open to Rafael Nadal. As defending champion Novak will have the honour of opening proceedings on centre court on Monday as he looks to regain control of his rivalry with Nadal. Djokovic won the title last year in impressive style and his flat shots will be tough to beat on the grass courts. Novak isn't unbeatable on these courts though. If players can dominate their serve and play aggressively then they have a chance to take sets off him. The problem is they can't take three out of five. Djokovic will be anxious to get another victory over Rafa but to do so he has to make the final here. With Nadal having won three of their last meetings it's important for the sake of their competitive rivalry that Djokovic steps up and improve his game, just like Nadal did to finally get over Novak. I think Djokovic is good enough to adapt but the question is how does he do it? It will be interesting to watch how he tries to achieve his success here. Djokovic is certainly one of the main contenders for the title here.
2. Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard is looking to return to the top of the rankings and regain his Wimbledon crown and he certainly has momentum on his side. After picking up his seventh French Open crown he is closing in on Federer's Grand Slam record. Nadal has adapted his game to cope with Djokovic's dominance last year and it's worked wonders for him. He looked better than ever on the clay and is now even more difficult to beat. Nadal lost in Halle to Kohlschreiber but I wouldn't read too much into it. It was very soon after his Roland Garros crown and he wouldn't have been at his best. The few days of rest he took back home will have helped him recover and he should be fully prepared for Wimbledon. It would be a massive victory for Nadal if he were to win the title here but he faces major competition with a number of players looking at possible success here. Nadal is right up there with Djokovic as the main contender for the crown.
3. Roger Federer. Roger is coming into this event having lost in the final of Halle to veteran Tommy Haas which was a minor blip in his preparations. I expect Roger to be playing with a real freedom here as his main goal this Summer is on winning the gold at the Olympics which is also on grass. So Roger will be playing himself into top form here and won't be putting as much pressure on himself which might make him even more dangerous. Roger hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open and that's too long for a player with his talent and desire. The problem with the Swiss star is I don't think he has the two big games required to win majors anymore. Those big games are against Nadal and Djokovic successively. This tournament might be his best and possibly last remaining chance to do so. I think Roger is very dangerous here and is definitely third favourite if not joint favourite with Novak and Rafa.
4. Thomas Berdych. This is a guy that has improved dramatically over the past few seasons. He is now a danger at all tournament to all players. He is fully established as a top 10 player and I expect him to go one step further and break into the top five. We used to have the top four dominating all tournaments but we don't have that anymore and it's because of players like Berdych that the game has evolved and become more competitive. Thomas is a tall man with a big serve and carries a powerful forehand that will worry the very best. I expect Berdych to at least make another Grand Slam final in his career having done so already here at Wimbledon. Whether or not he can go a step further and win a major is another question but he is one of the players that deserves one for the progression and desire he has shown throughout his career. Nobody will want to face the Czech star during this tournament and I think he might be a dark horse.
5. Marin Cilic. Not many people will see this man as a threat but I really think he might be in for a big tournament. Cilic looked like he was on the verge of breaking through a couple of seasons ago but he fell away but he is now starting to play more like the player we saw win seven ATP titles and reach the semi final of the 2010 Australian Open. The past few months has seen him return to some form with a final appearance in Munich and win the title in Queens club albeit in controversial circumstances. Cilic has a big serve and some huge ground strokes and if he fully utilises his power he might just make a good run at this tournament and make a mark on the Grand Slam stage again, like we know he can. I don't think he can win Wimbledon but he has the ability to go into the second week.
6. Milos Raonic. It's no secret that this is a guy I really like and I'm certain that he will win multiple Grand Slams. Since bursting on to the scene last year he has jumped right up the rankings and by the end of the season I expect him to be in the top 10. So far this season he's beaten Andy Murray and he's pushed Federer very close on three occasions. It's only a matter of time before he causes some big shocks at the Grand Slams. A fourth round meeting with Murray is likely here and that's a chance for him to have a big win over a top five player over five sets. He has a monstrous serve and some very impressive ground strokes and he great movement for a man of his height. Wimbledon will suit him perfectly and it's tough to see how players can break him down on this surface without playing outstanding. Federer beat him 7-6 in the third in Halle and I think Roger won't want to play him too often more this season. I think Raonic has the potential to go deep into the second week and I hope he does his talent justice and shows the world what he can do.
7. John Isner. This man has some wonderful memories of Wimbledon having won the longest match in tennis history here against Nicolas Mahut a few years back. This year he comes in slightly under the radar with no competitive practice leading into Wimbledon. I think the American is in for a massive tournament. He was outstanding in the first few months of the year beating Djokovic and Federer in Davis Cup action and during the American hard court swing. Unfortunately for John the clay court season came up next and he lost a bit of his momentum. I think Isner might finally be ready to make the step up and go deep into a Grand Slam tournament. With his power he should be right at home on the grass and I expect him to cause one or two shocks along the way even if he isn't quite ready to win Wimbledon. John has a potential rematch with Mahut in round two but if he can get through that (quickly this time) then he can go very far. I'm looking forward to seeing John's progress over the next few months starting with a good run at Wimbledon.
8. Juan Martin Del Potro. This man should have been in the French Open semi final. He was robbed by injury against Federer having been two sets up before struggling with his knee injury which finally caught up with him. If he's fully recovered now then he will be looking forward to Wimbledon. Nobody ever puts pressure on Delpo here. He's often written off because of his poor movement on the surface but with the shot making ability he has he can compensate for it. We saw him compete with Rafa last year until he got injured and that's enough for me to believe he has the potential to go deep here too. Were still waiting for Delpo to make his mark on the tour again and this year has been a big step for him. Nobody could doubt he has the talent but it's a question of whether he has the appetite to and desire to push on and establish himself at the top of the game again. I think he will win more majors and maybe he will win Wimbledon at some stage but not this year, this year is about going as far as he can and building on that in the coming months.
9. Mardy Fish. This guy has had some shocking results this year and won't expected to do much at all here. However, I'm confident he can play some good tennis here and rediscover the sort of form that saw him make it to the top ten. He plays a nice brand of serve and volley tennis which could see him upset a few players. He takes time away from players and it's tough to know when he's coming in and when he's staying back which leaves constant doubt in opponents mind. The main reason I'm picking him is because I can't see him being beaten in the fist three rounds as I don't think the players he faces early are capable of beating him here, with the possible exception of Bernard Tomic. He can build up some momentum before a fourth round clash with Tsonga or Wawrinka which he would be more than capable of winning. This could go either way, he could flop and lose early again or he could do what I think is more likely and that's have a good run here before heading on to his favoured American hard courts.
10. Tommy Haas. The German is back yet again at Wimbledon on the back of a great run of tournaments. At 34 he still manages to motivate himself to play at such a high level. He may be getting older but his talent is just as prominent as it was a decade ago. Watching him in Halle two weeks ago will have reminded everyone of how dangerous he is. A stunning run of wins over Berdych, Kohlschreiber (who had beaten Nadal, and who he meets in the first round here) and then a magnificent final win over Federer saw him lift his 13th tour title. After winning in Halle a few years back beating Djokovic that time he went on to have his best run at Wimbledon. This year he would face Nadal in round three but I don't think Haas can be ruled out of that one. He could very easily upset the Spaniard if he plays at the level he has shown lately. This season has been a good one for Haas as he moves ever closer to 500 wins on tour and he has already beaten plays such as Tsonga, Baghdatis, Tomic and Granollers. I think we'll see a good performance from Haas and possibly a few upsets along the way.
So there the ten players I've picked to watch out for at Wimbledon and I'm sure we'll see the winner come out of that group. Other top players who might have good runs but I don't think will threaten the top players could be Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet. I don't see any of those coming close to winning the title but they might have a few good wins to show for their efforts. I think this year will be a very exciting tournament with a number of strong contenders. We can expect to see some very high quality tennis and some brilliant matches and I'm sure many upsets in the next fortnight.
1. Novak Djokovic. The Serbian comes into Wimbledon with his world ranking under threat for the first time since last year's event having lost at the French Open to Rafael Nadal. As defending champion Novak will have the honour of opening proceedings on centre court on Monday as he looks to regain control of his rivalry with Nadal. Djokovic won the title last year in impressive style and his flat shots will be tough to beat on the grass courts. Novak isn't unbeatable on these courts though. If players can dominate their serve and play aggressively then they have a chance to take sets off him. The problem is they can't take three out of five. Djokovic will be anxious to get another victory over Rafa but to do so he has to make the final here. With Nadal having won three of their last meetings it's important for the sake of their competitive rivalry that Djokovic steps up and improve his game, just like Nadal did to finally get over Novak. I think Djokovic is good enough to adapt but the question is how does he do it? It will be interesting to watch how he tries to achieve his success here. Djokovic is certainly one of the main contenders for the title here.
2. Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard is looking to return to the top of the rankings and regain his Wimbledon crown and he certainly has momentum on his side. After picking up his seventh French Open crown he is closing in on Federer's Grand Slam record. Nadal has adapted his game to cope with Djokovic's dominance last year and it's worked wonders for him. He looked better than ever on the clay and is now even more difficult to beat. Nadal lost in Halle to Kohlschreiber but I wouldn't read too much into it. It was very soon after his Roland Garros crown and he wouldn't have been at his best. The few days of rest he took back home will have helped him recover and he should be fully prepared for Wimbledon. It would be a massive victory for Nadal if he were to win the title here but he faces major competition with a number of players looking at possible success here. Nadal is right up there with Djokovic as the main contender for the crown.
3. Roger Federer. Roger is coming into this event having lost in the final of Halle to veteran Tommy Haas which was a minor blip in his preparations. I expect Roger to be playing with a real freedom here as his main goal this Summer is on winning the gold at the Olympics which is also on grass. So Roger will be playing himself into top form here and won't be putting as much pressure on himself which might make him even more dangerous. Roger hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open and that's too long for a player with his talent and desire. The problem with the Swiss star is I don't think he has the two big games required to win majors anymore. Those big games are against Nadal and Djokovic successively. This tournament might be his best and possibly last remaining chance to do so. I think Roger is very dangerous here and is definitely third favourite if not joint favourite with Novak and Rafa.
4. Thomas Berdych. This is a guy that has improved dramatically over the past few seasons. He is now a danger at all tournament to all players. He is fully established as a top 10 player and I expect him to go one step further and break into the top five. We used to have the top four dominating all tournaments but we don't have that anymore and it's because of players like Berdych that the game has evolved and become more competitive. Thomas is a tall man with a big serve and carries a powerful forehand that will worry the very best. I expect Berdych to at least make another Grand Slam final in his career having done so already here at Wimbledon. Whether or not he can go a step further and win a major is another question but he is one of the players that deserves one for the progression and desire he has shown throughout his career. Nobody will want to face the Czech star during this tournament and I think he might be a dark horse.
5. Marin Cilic. Not many people will see this man as a threat but I really think he might be in for a big tournament. Cilic looked like he was on the verge of breaking through a couple of seasons ago but he fell away but he is now starting to play more like the player we saw win seven ATP titles and reach the semi final of the 2010 Australian Open. The past few months has seen him return to some form with a final appearance in Munich and win the title in Queens club albeit in controversial circumstances. Cilic has a big serve and some huge ground strokes and if he fully utilises his power he might just make a good run at this tournament and make a mark on the Grand Slam stage again, like we know he can. I don't think he can win Wimbledon but he has the ability to go into the second week.
6. Milos Raonic. It's no secret that this is a guy I really like and I'm certain that he will win multiple Grand Slams. Since bursting on to the scene last year he has jumped right up the rankings and by the end of the season I expect him to be in the top 10. So far this season he's beaten Andy Murray and he's pushed Federer very close on three occasions. It's only a matter of time before he causes some big shocks at the Grand Slams. A fourth round meeting with Murray is likely here and that's a chance for him to have a big win over a top five player over five sets. He has a monstrous serve and some very impressive ground strokes and he great movement for a man of his height. Wimbledon will suit him perfectly and it's tough to see how players can break him down on this surface without playing outstanding. Federer beat him 7-6 in the third in Halle and I think Roger won't want to play him too often more this season. I think Raonic has the potential to go deep into the second week and I hope he does his talent justice and shows the world what he can do.
7. John Isner. This man has some wonderful memories of Wimbledon having won the longest match in tennis history here against Nicolas Mahut a few years back. This year he comes in slightly under the radar with no competitive practice leading into Wimbledon. I think the American is in for a massive tournament. He was outstanding in the first few months of the year beating Djokovic and Federer in Davis Cup action and during the American hard court swing. Unfortunately for John the clay court season came up next and he lost a bit of his momentum. I think Isner might finally be ready to make the step up and go deep into a Grand Slam tournament. With his power he should be right at home on the grass and I expect him to cause one or two shocks along the way even if he isn't quite ready to win Wimbledon. John has a potential rematch with Mahut in round two but if he can get through that (quickly this time) then he can go very far. I'm looking forward to seeing John's progress over the next few months starting with a good run at Wimbledon.
8. Juan Martin Del Potro. This man should have been in the French Open semi final. He was robbed by injury against Federer having been two sets up before struggling with his knee injury which finally caught up with him. If he's fully recovered now then he will be looking forward to Wimbledon. Nobody ever puts pressure on Delpo here. He's often written off because of his poor movement on the surface but with the shot making ability he has he can compensate for it. We saw him compete with Rafa last year until he got injured and that's enough for me to believe he has the potential to go deep here too. Were still waiting for Delpo to make his mark on the tour again and this year has been a big step for him. Nobody could doubt he has the talent but it's a question of whether he has the appetite to and desire to push on and establish himself at the top of the game again. I think he will win more majors and maybe he will win Wimbledon at some stage but not this year, this year is about going as far as he can and building on that in the coming months.
9. Mardy Fish. This guy has had some shocking results this year and won't expected to do much at all here. However, I'm confident he can play some good tennis here and rediscover the sort of form that saw him make it to the top ten. He plays a nice brand of serve and volley tennis which could see him upset a few players. He takes time away from players and it's tough to know when he's coming in and when he's staying back which leaves constant doubt in opponents mind. The main reason I'm picking him is because I can't see him being beaten in the fist three rounds as I don't think the players he faces early are capable of beating him here, with the possible exception of Bernard Tomic. He can build up some momentum before a fourth round clash with Tsonga or Wawrinka which he would be more than capable of winning. This could go either way, he could flop and lose early again or he could do what I think is more likely and that's have a good run here before heading on to his favoured American hard courts.
10. Tommy Haas. The German is back yet again at Wimbledon on the back of a great run of tournaments. At 34 he still manages to motivate himself to play at such a high level. He may be getting older but his talent is just as prominent as it was a decade ago. Watching him in Halle two weeks ago will have reminded everyone of how dangerous he is. A stunning run of wins over Berdych, Kohlschreiber (who had beaten Nadal, and who he meets in the first round here) and then a magnificent final win over Federer saw him lift his 13th tour title. After winning in Halle a few years back beating Djokovic that time he went on to have his best run at Wimbledon. This year he would face Nadal in round three but I don't think Haas can be ruled out of that one. He could very easily upset the Spaniard if he plays at the level he has shown lately. This season has been a good one for Haas as he moves ever closer to 500 wins on tour and he has already beaten plays such as Tsonga, Baghdatis, Tomic and Granollers. I think we'll see a good performance from Haas and possibly a few upsets along the way.
So there the ten players I've picked to watch out for at Wimbledon and I'm sure we'll see the winner come out of that group. Other top players who might have good runs but I don't think will threaten the top players could be Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet. I don't see any of those coming close to winning the title but they might have a few good wins to show for their efforts. I think this year will be a very exciting tournament with a number of strong contenders. We can expect to see some very high quality tennis and some brilliant matches and I'm sure many upsets in the next fortnight.
Monday, 28 May 2012
Roland Garros 2012- Women's Preview
This year as has been the case for the past few years it is virtually impossible to predict the winner of the women's singles event at the French Open. There are so many contenders for the title and a lot of very talented ladies that are capable of producing big shocks such as the surge of Francesca Schiavone in 2010. World number one and Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka has been the dominant player of the season so far but for her to win another Grand Slam she will have some very stiff competition. Serena Williams is looking to continue her great run of results recently to win her first French Open since beating her sister Venus in 2002. Defending champion Na Li recently made the final of the event in Rome but lost to Maria Sharapova despite having led by a set and 4-0. Sharapova herself has been playing some good tennis and is still looking to win her first French Open title, the only major to have eluded her in her stunning career. Angelique Kerber is also coming into the tournament in form after having an amazing year so far which has seen her rise to number 10 in the world. Of course these are the players in good form but form often counts for nothing when it comes to major tournaments. The important thing for all the women is to make it through to the second week at all costs and play their way into form from there. An important factor in the progression to the second week is of course the draw which was made by men's defending champion Rafael Nadal on Friday. So I'm going to take a look at the four quarters of the draw and pick the quarter finalists before giving my prediction for the title.
At the top of the draw is of course the top seed Victoria Azarenka and on first sight of her quarter of the draw she has got an easy first three matches which should allow her get into her stride very early. Alberta Brianti shouldn't pose any problems and a second round meeting with Dinah Pfizenmaier should be even more comfortable. I would expect Aleksandra Wozniak to be her third round match and again she should progress with ease. Dominika Cibulkova could be her fourth round opponent which would be match worth watching. I watched them play a few months back when Azarenka was still unbeaten for the year and Cibulkova blew her off the court but eventually the Belarussian scrope through the match but I don't think Cibulkova would let a lead slip again if they were to meet in this event so Azarenka will have to be at her best to progress. Things get even more difficult in the quarter final as she could meet 6th seed Sam Stosur or 12th seed Sabine Lisicki. I think Lisicki will get through to face Azarenka because Lisicki is a young energetic player with a lot of power and will hit through a lot of the weaker players in the field. She could face trouble in her third round against Petra Cetkovska who is more than capable of beating her but I think Lisicki is going to be too strong. Stosur can be very effective here with her kick serve but she is very short of confidence lately and lost in the opening round of the Australian Open and I don't think she will have enough to beat Lisicki. So I'm expecting a Lisicki-Azarenka quarter final.
In the second quarter we are going to have a lot very high quality matches and I think a lot of upsets. Third seed Agnieszka Radwanska will be the favourite to make the quarter finals but in order to do so she has to beat some very talented players. Her opening match should be comfortable against Bojana Jovanovski but a second round meeting against Venus Williams will be an interesting tie. Williams a few years ago would have steamrolled Radwanska but lacking fitness and match practice I think Radwanska should beat her in two tight sets. Svetlana Kuznetsova awaits in round three and again it's another tough match. I think she will win it but she will be pushed all the way. It doesn't get any easier in round four as she could face either clay court specialist Sara Errani or the rejuvenated Ana Ivanovic who is a past champion here and knows her way around the red dirt. I would expect Ivanovic to just about beat Errani to meet Radwanska and I do think Ivanovic will beat the the Polish third seed. I think Ivanovic has shown promise this season and looks to be making a return to her best form and this tournament will give her a chance to show just how far she has come. At the other side of this quarter we have the girl I think has an outside chance of going all the way here, Angelique Kerber. She has been outstanding this year and is now a top ten player and I think she will progress to the quarter finals despite a very difficult draw. She has an easy first two rounds but a third round meeting with possibly Flavia Pennetta is a potential stumbling block. Pennetta is a good clay court player and I like the way she moves around the court but Kerber should have too many shots for the Italian. She would be seeded to meet Marion Bartoli in the fourth round but I think Bartoli could be beaten early here. She may have the crowd on her side but she has played some awful tennis recently especially last week when losing to Urszula Radwanska in straight sets. I think Petra Martic might cause her problems but she should be able to just about pull through but I don't see her making it further than round three. Anabel Medina-Garrigues is likely to be her third round opponent and I think the Spaniard would beat Bartoli as she is a very accomplished clay court player. Medina-Garrigues faces Laura Robson in the first round and that's one where she could slip up. If she gets through that then I'd expect her to make the fourth round but if Robson beats her then Bartoli might make the fourth round. Either way I don't see any of those players beating Kerber. I would expect to see Angelique Kerber to play Agnieszka Radwanska in the quarter final.
Defending champion Na Li is in the third quarter and although first round opponent Sorana Cirstea is very good player I don't think she will beat Li who should comfortably make round four although I am going to be keeping an eye on the progress of two young players with bright futures. Christina McHale and Kiki Bertens face off in the first and both are very good players. McHale especially is one I think might make the top ten in the remainder of this year or next year. If she faces Li in round three and brings her best game then she might be able to cause a shock but I think it might be too much to ask too soon. In the fourth round she could face one of three players in my opinion. Vera Zvonareva, Roberta Vinci and Carla Suarez Navarro will battle it out for the right to face Li. I think Zvonareva will win be the one to make the fourth round. She is starting to play better and I fancy her to make the fourth round although I don't think she could beat Li. In the bottom half of this section Petra Kvitova is the fourth seed and should reach the fourth round with ease. In that fourth round it's likely she will face 2010 champions Schiavone. Schiavone made the final last year and will like her chances of going far again and I think she will reach the fourth round with ease but Kvitova will prove a step too far. So that leaves a Li-Kvitova quarter final.
In the fourth quarter of the draw we have the two favourites for the title. I'm not even sure what I can say about this quarter other than it will be a Sharapova-Williams quarter final. The only playesr who could upset Sharapova would be young talented Russians Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Maria Kirilenko. Pavlyuchenkova has got a bright future ahead of her but I don't see her beating Sharapova especially with Maria in such good form. Kirilenko is very capable of beating Sharapova but I don't think she could do it on clay. As for Williams there are also two dangerous players in her part of that quarter. Kaia Kanepi has been in good form lately and had some good wins and she would relish a shot at Williams but I think Serena is playing so well she won't lose too early here. Caroline Wozniacki has certainly got potential to go deep into this tournament but I think not having won a major is weighing heavily on her mind and although I think she will have a great summer I don't think she will have a successful French Open. So Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will meet in the quarter final and it should be an unbelievable match that wouldn't be out of place on final Saturday.
I won't go into detail on the quarter finals until we see for certain who makes it there but I will talk about who I think will make the semi finals and final. I would expect Azarenka to face Kerber in one semi final. I think Azarenka will scrape past Lisicki and Kerber will upset Radwanska. In that semi I think Kerber will finally be beaten as the Belarussian Azarenka is playing very well and has all the shots to hit through Kerber. Azarenka also has got the big game mentality that counts for a lot in Grand Slams. I also saw Azarenka destroy Sharapova on a hard court a few months back and it was scary how good she was. Although it wasn't on clay, I still think it was important as it was her ground strokes and consistency that were phenomenal. So I would expect Azarenka to be at her brilliant best and make the final. In the other semi final I think Na Li will face off against Sharapova. I think Kvitova isn't quite up to fitness levels required for clay yet and that's the only thing stopping her being a finalist here. She will have a great summer but she will fall short here. I'm also giving Sharapova the nod over Williams as I think Sharapova is so focused on completing her career Grand Slam that she will find a way to get through the tough matches just like she did against Li last week in Rome when she fought back from a set and two breaks down to win. Williams is getting back to her best but Sharapova is fitter, stronger and more determined at the moment and that will be the difference. In the semi final I think Li will be beaten by Sharapova again. Li isn't strong enough mentally which seems strange considering she won the title last year. She hasn't really kicked on since then and she completely fell apart against Sharapova last week. With victory in her sight her serve and groundstrokes just deserted her. Sharapova will beat Li and that leaves us with Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. I do truly believe that no matter what upsets occur, and there will be plenty, at the end of two stunning weeks of tennis we will have Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. Who wins the final is anybody's guess. It's almost impossible to separate the two but if I had to pick I would probably give Azarenka the nod because if it gets deep into a third set I'm not convinced Sharapova's serve will hold up in a Grand Slam final, especially here when she's looking to win the only slam to have eluded her. They are the two best players at the moment and they are both playing great tennis. I think they will give us a fascinating final that will showcase all that is great about the women's game right now. It's become more competitive and there are now a number of players playing at a very high level. I think that these two in the final would be a great advertisement for the sport and we can look forward to not only the men's at Wimbledon and the Olympics but also the women's.
At the top of the draw is of course the top seed Victoria Azarenka and on first sight of her quarter of the draw she has got an easy first three matches which should allow her get into her stride very early. Alberta Brianti shouldn't pose any problems and a second round meeting with Dinah Pfizenmaier should be even more comfortable. I would expect Aleksandra Wozniak to be her third round match and again she should progress with ease. Dominika Cibulkova could be her fourth round opponent which would be match worth watching. I watched them play a few months back when Azarenka was still unbeaten for the year and Cibulkova blew her off the court but eventually the Belarussian scrope through the match but I don't think Cibulkova would let a lead slip again if they were to meet in this event so Azarenka will have to be at her best to progress. Things get even more difficult in the quarter final as she could meet 6th seed Sam Stosur or 12th seed Sabine Lisicki. I think Lisicki will get through to face Azarenka because Lisicki is a young energetic player with a lot of power and will hit through a lot of the weaker players in the field. She could face trouble in her third round against Petra Cetkovska who is more than capable of beating her but I think Lisicki is going to be too strong. Stosur can be very effective here with her kick serve but she is very short of confidence lately and lost in the opening round of the Australian Open and I don't think she will have enough to beat Lisicki. So I'm expecting a Lisicki-Azarenka quarter final.
In the second quarter we are going to have a lot very high quality matches and I think a lot of upsets. Third seed Agnieszka Radwanska will be the favourite to make the quarter finals but in order to do so she has to beat some very talented players. Her opening match should be comfortable against Bojana Jovanovski but a second round meeting against Venus Williams will be an interesting tie. Williams a few years ago would have steamrolled Radwanska but lacking fitness and match practice I think Radwanska should beat her in two tight sets. Svetlana Kuznetsova awaits in round three and again it's another tough match. I think she will win it but she will be pushed all the way. It doesn't get any easier in round four as she could face either clay court specialist Sara Errani or the rejuvenated Ana Ivanovic who is a past champion here and knows her way around the red dirt. I would expect Ivanovic to just about beat Errani to meet Radwanska and I do think Ivanovic will beat the the Polish third seed. I think Ivanovic has shown promise this season and looks to be making a return to her best form and this tournament will give her a chance to show just how far she has come. At the other side of this quarter we have the girl I think has an outside chance of going all the way here, Angelique Kerber. She has been outstanding this year and is now a top ten player and I think she will progress to the quarter finals despite a very difficult draw. She has an easy first two rounds but a third round meeting with possibly Flavia Pennetta is a potential stumbling block. Pennetta is a good clay court player and I like the way she moves around the court but Kerber should have too many shots for the Italian. She would be seeded to meet Marion Bartoli in the fourth round but I think Bartoli could be beaten early here. She may have the crowd on her side but she has played some awful tennis recently especially last week when losing to Urszula Radwanska in straight sets. I think Petra Martic might cause her problems but she should be able to just about pull through but I don't see her making it further than round three. Anabel Medina-Garrigues is likely to be her third round opponent and I think the Spaniard would beat Bartoli as she is a very accomplished clay court player. Medina-Garrigues faces Laura Robson in the first round and that's one where she could slip up. If she gets through that then I'd expect her to make the fourth round but if Robson beats her then Bartoli might make the fourth round. Either way I don't see any of those players beating Kerber. I would expect to see Angelique Kerber to play Agnieszka Radwanska in the quarter final.
Defending champion Na Li is in the third quarter and although first round opponent Sorana Cirstea is very good player I don't think she will beat Li who should comfortably make round four although I am going to be keeping an eye on the progress of two young players with bright futures. Christina McHale and Kiki Bertens face off in the first and both are very good players. McHale especially is one I think might make the top ten in the remainder of this year or next year. If she faces Li in round three and brings her best game then she might be able to cause a shock but I think it might be too much to ask too soon. In the fourth round she could face one of three players in my opinion. Vera Zvonareva, Roberta Vinci and Carla Suarez Navarro will battle it out for the right to face Li. I think Zvonareva will win be the one to make the fourth round. She is starting to play better and I fancy her to make the fourth round although I don't think she could beat Li. In the bottom half of this section Petra Kvitova is the fourth seed and should reach the fourth round with ease. In that fourth round it's likely she will face 2010 champions Schiavone. Schiavone made the final last year and will like her chances of going far again and I think she will reach the fourth round with ease but Kvitova will prove a step too far. So that leaves a Li-Kvitova quarter final.
In the fourth quarter of the draw we have the two favourites for the title. I'm not even sure what I can say about this quarter other than it will be a Sharapova-Williams quarter final. The only playesr who could upset Sharapova would be young talented Russians Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Maria Kirilenko. Pavlyuchenkova has got a bright future ahead of her but I don't see her beating Sharapova especially with Maria in such good form. Kirilenko is very capable of beating Sharapova but I don't think she could do it on clay. As for Williams there are also two dangerous players in her part of that quarter. Kaia Kanepi has been in good form lately and had some good wins and she would relish a shot at Williams but I think Serena is playing so well she won't lose too early here. Caroline Wozniacki has certainly got potential to go deep into this tournament but I think not having won a major is weighing heavily on her mind and although I think she will have a great summer I don't think she will have a successful French Open. So Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will meet in the quarter final and it should be an unbelievable match that wouldn't be out of place on final Saturday.
I won't go into detail on the quarter finals until we see for certain who makes it there but I will talk about who I think will make the semi finals and final. I would expect Azarenka to face Kerber in one semi final. I think Azarenka will scrape past Lisicki and Kerber will upset Radwanska. In that semi I think Kerber will finally be beaten as the Belarussian Azarenka is playing very well and has all the shots to hit through Kerber. Azarenka also has got the big game mentality that counts for a lot in Grand Slams. I also saw Azarenka destroy Sharapova on a hard court a few months back and it was scary how good she was. Although it wasn't on clay, I still think it was important as it was her ground strokes and consistency that were phenomenal. So I would expect Azarenka to be at her brilliant best and make the final. In the other semi final I think Na Li will face off against Sharapova. I think Kvitova isn't quite up to fitness levels required for clay yet and that's the only thing stopping her being a finalist here. She will have a great summer but she will fall short here. I'm also giving Sharapova the nod over Williams as I think Sharapova is so focused on completing her career Grand Slam that she will find a way to get through the tough matches just like she did against Li last week in Rome when she fought back from a set and two breaks down to win. Williams is getting back to her best but Sharapova is fitter, stronger and more determined at the moment and that will be the difference. In the semi final I think Li will be beaten by Sharapova again. Li isn't strong enough mentally which seems strange considering she won the title last year. She hasn't really kicked on since then and she completely fell apart against Sharapova last week. With victory in her sight her serve and groundstrokes just deserted her. Sharapova will beat Li and that leaves us with Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. I do truly believe that no matter what upsets occur, and there will be plenty, at the end of two stunning weeks of tennis we will have Azarenka and Sharapova in the final. Who wins the final is anybody's guess. It's almost impossible to separate the two but if I had to pick I would probably give Azarenka the nod because if it gets deep into a third set I'm not convinced Sharapova's serve will hold up in a Grand Slam final, especially here when she's looking to win the only slam to have eluded her. They are the two best players at the moment and they are both playing great tennis. I think they will give us a fascinating final that will showcase all that is great about the women's game right now. It's become more competitive and there are now a number of players playing at a very high level. I think that these two in the final would be a great advertisement for the sport and we can look forward to not only the men's at Wimbledon and the Olympics but also the women's.
Saturday, 26 May 2012
Roland Garros 2012 Preview
Sunday May 27th sees the start of the second major tournament of 2012 as players make the trip to the beautiful red clay of Paris. So far we've seen a very entertaining clay court season which looks like culminating in a thrilling two weeks of clay court tennis as the players battle it out for the second Grand Slam of the year. Last year, we saw Roger Federer end Novak Djokovic's unbelievable unbeaten run in a stunning semi final only for Rafael Nadal to take down the Swiss maestro for his 6th French Open crown. This year has seen a number of players make giant leaps in their career and catapulted a host of players into Grand Slam contention. Juan Martin Del Potro is beginning to get back to his best, Thomas Berdych is pushing the top players very very close now and is reaching the quarter finals and semi finals on a regular basis, David Ferrer has been brilliant this year and in his last three clay events has only fallen to Nadal and Federer and Nadal again. A number of Frenchmen have played well in recent months and will look to keep the title on French soil for the first time since Yannick Noah in 1983. Gilles Simon is on the verge of the top 10 once again and has had some great results recently, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has cemented down the number 5 ranking and is a threat at any tournament while Richard Gasquet is beginning to fulfil some of his potential after a final appearance in Estoril and defeating Andy Murray in Rome. So French hopes of having an interest deep into the second week are strong this year. Of course nobody could confidently discount Roger Federer from picking up another Grand Slam as he continues his quest to regain the number one ranking. However, this year history beckons for two players and it seems like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course to meet in the final for a 4th consecutive Grand Slam.
As tennis fans we are lucky to have two outstanding athletes and two men who love the sport as much as they do at the very top of the game. In the past 18 months they have dominated the sport with some incredible tennis and have developed a thrilling rivalry which looks certain to last for more years to come. Djokovic had beaten Nadal in seven consecutive finals including at Wimbledon, US Open and of course the Australian Open. But during this clay court season Nadal has twice got the better of the Serb and it seems like he has finally overcome that mental barrier and now it looks like we are set for a fascinating rivalry. I do think we can expect to see these men in the French Open final and if we do it will be unmissable final where the winner will create a piece of history. Djokovic is looking to do what the likes of Nadal, Federer and Sampras have all failed to do and that is to hold all four major titles at one time. It would be an amazing achievement and would surely allow him enter the talk of the greatest player ever. His biggest challenge would be to beat Nadal at Roland Garros, a feat only Robin Soderling has done and Nadal was clearly troubled by knee injuries that year. Nadal himself is chasing history. The Spaniard is looking to become only the 6th player to win seven titles in one major. Both players will be highly motivated for the tournament and unless somebody plays at an extremely high level and causes a huge upset I don't see anybody stopping these two from meeting in yet another final. I don't think Federer has the game to beat Rafa in Paris and more importantly I don't think he truly believes he can beat him. I also don't think he can beat Djokovic in a major as I think Djokovic has got too much stamina and too much creativity for Federer. Scot Andy Murray is still looking for his first major but I don't think he is ever going to win here and with each major that passes it's becoming less likely he will win one. So it's unlikely that anybody outside of the three wins the title here and even that is at a push as it seems Novak and Rafa are a class above the rest at the moment but as is the case with every Grand Slam anything can happen and everyone has to be at their best if they are to get deep into the second week.
Last year's Women's champion Na Li made the draw for the Men's singles on Friday and in that draw Djokovic was placed in Federer's half and Murray in Nadal's. Djokovic is at the very top of the draw and has been given a tricky route through and no doubt he will be challenged on his way to the later stages. Potito Starace is his first match and shouldn't provide any problems but a second round match with Lleyton Hewitt would be a tough match as Hewitt still has the ability to make the top players work very hard for points but ultimately he won't have enough to actually get over the line and win. In round 3 the Serb is likely to face Austrian Jurgen Melzer. That would be a good match for Novak as it will give him practice against a left hander which may be useful for the final. Even better for Djokovic could be a meeting in round 4 against left handed Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco beat Nadal recently but that was on the controversial blue clay in Madrid and Djokovic would have no problems with him if he were to face him. Verdasco has got to beat probably Gilles Muller and then either Nikolay Davydenko or Andreas Seppi in order to reach the fourth round. That's when the easy bit is finished for Novak and he begins to face some stern tests. A quarter final against more than likely Gilles Simon or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits and it will take all of Djokovic's skills to navigate that obstacle. Stanislas Wawrinka will be hoping he can force his way through to meet Djokovic but I think Simon is playing too well lately to lose early in his home Grand Slam.
In the second quarter Roger Federer (3rd seed) faces Tobias Kamke in the first round and should progress minimum fuss. A mouthwatering second round match with David Nalbandian would give the Swiss star a strong workout. The Argentine has got a very good record against Federer and will fancy his chances after some good form this year but I think over five sets Federer will overcome Nalbandian. The old foes don't stop there for Fed. A possible meeting with Andy Roddick awaits in the third round although Roddick has a tricky match with Nicolas Mahut in the opening round. Looking at his draw Roger has got a relatively easy route to the quarter final. A fourth round clash with Feliciano Lopez or Radek Stepanek isn't going to frighten Fed and it's not really until the quarter final that he comes into danger of actually losing. Juan Martin Del Potro and Thomas Berdych are fighting it out to face Federer in the quarter final and those two meeting in the fourth round would be a thrilling match as both have been sensational so far this season and their match in Madrid a few weeks ago was brilliant. I fancy Berdych to win that one and I'd even go as far to say he will beat Federer in the quarter final. I just think he's been brilliant this year and should have so many more wins than he has but has lost matches in final sets and is beaten only by the very best players and I think this might just be his tournament. I see him making a semi final against Djokovic and I would fancy that to go four or possibly five sets but ultimately it will be Djokovic in the final.
In the third section of the draw Andy Murray (4th seed) has got a very difficult task to make it deep into the second week. An easy opening two rounds against Tatsuma Ito and then probably Jarkko Nieminen won't pose too much problems but a third round encounter with Bernard Tomic would be an intersting match. Tomic is surely going to beat a top player at a Grand Slam soon but I don't think this is his time. Personally, I don't see Murray making it past the fourth round. He could face Richard Gasquet who beat him a few weeks ago in Rome or else Aleksandr Dolgopolov. I think Gasquet will beat Murray again simply because he plays aggressive and he is a shot maker that will expose Murray as a defensive player as hedid in Rome. Murray is hyped up under Lendl as being more aggressive and mentally stronger but I really don't see it apart from the first round or two of a tournament where he isn't under pressure. I also think Tommy Haas might be able to cause an upset or two in that section. He has played very well since returning to the tour and qualified with ease last week. A very interesting fourth round match from this section would be John Isner and David Ferrer. Ferrer has been outstanding this year but falls just short of winning the big tournaments when he faces Nadal, Federer and Djokovic while Isner has beaten both Federer and Djokovic this year and last year pushed Nadal to five sets in the first round. I think Ferrer will beat the big American and beat whichever of Gasquet, Murray or Dolgopolov to reach the semi finals. Sadly for Ferrer in the semi final he will once again face Rafa Nadal who he just cannot beat on clay. Ferrer would have every clay court tournament in the game won if he never faced Nadal.
Nadal is in the fourth section of the draw as second seed and really doesn't face much problems in his opening matches. Simone Bolelli won't have any weapons to push the Spaniard and neither will Denis Istomin or Florian Mayer. A fourth round match with Milos Raonic could be very interesting. I think on any other surface and over three sets Raonic might beat Nadal but here in Paris on clay, I just don't see it happening. For Raonic to reach that stage he would have to beat Juan Monaco which is also a very difficult task for him. Monaco is a very acomplished clay court player and if Raonic does beat him and reach the fourth round it will be a very successful French Open for him even if it does end against Nadal. In the quarter final Nadal could face in form Serb Janko Tipsarevic or Nicolas Almagro. Tipsarevic just helped Serbia win the World Team Championships where he beat Thomas Berdych in the first singles rubber of the final. Almagro just won the title in Nice and it would be a fascinating match between these two for the right t play Nadal. Sam Querrey is Tipsarevic's first round opponent and that's the sort of match he could lose if he isn't on his game while Philip Kohlschreiber will be Almagro's toughest test although I wouldn't see Almagro losing that. I think it will be an all-Spaniard quarter final between Almagro and Nadal which Nadal should win in straight sets.
So in my opinion we will see Novak Djokovic and Thomas Berdych in one semi final and Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer in the other. As good as Ferrer and Berdych are and have been this season I don't think either would be capable of winning three sets off Djokovic or Nadal. That would leave us with the Nadal and Djokovic final that will go down as a historic occasion no matter who wins. As i said a few weeks ago both players had something to prove in Rome when they got back onto the red clay and they proved it when they provided us with a thrilling dress rehearsal for what may be to come in a fortnight's time. I think it would be a thrilling match and although Djokovic has won the last three Grand Slams I just don't think he can beat Nadal in Paris. Nadal is almost unbeatable here and with the confidence of beating Djokovic twice on clay already this season he will be confident of regaining his crown. He has only lost once and that was when he was clearly injured and suffering from knee problems which also forced him out of Wimbledon. Apart from that nobody has really come close to beating him here. He hold a 45-1 record here and I think he will make it seven Roland Garros titles. The events of the clay court season so far and all the great matches we have seen it look set to end with a thrilling French Open filled with great tennis and that's exactly what I'm expecting from the next two weeks.
As tennis fans we are lucky to have two outstanding athletes and two men who love the sport as much as they do at the very top of the game. In the past 18 months they have dominated the sport with some incredible tennis and have developed a thrilling rivalry which looks certain to last for more years to come. Djokovic had beaten Nadal in seven consecutive finals including at Wimbledon, US Open and of course the Australian Open. But during this clay court season Nadal has twice got the better of the Serb and it seems like he has finally overcome that mental barrier and now it looks like we are set for a fascinating rivalry. I do think we can expect to see these men in the French Open final and if we do it will be unmissable final where the winner will create a piece of history. Djokovic is looking to do what the likes of Nadal, Federer and Sampras have all failed to do and that is to hold all four major titles at one time. It would be an amazing achievement and would surely allow him enter the talk of the greatest player ever. His biggest challenge would be to beat Nadal at Roland Garros, a feat only Robin Soderling has done and Nadal was clearly troubled by knee injuries that year. Nadal himself is chasing history. The Spaniard is looking to become only the 6th player to win seven titles in one major. Both players will be highly motivated for the tournament and unless somebody plays at an extremely high level and causes a huge upset I don't see anybody stopping these two from meeting in yet another final. I don't think Federer has the game to beat Rafa in Paris and more importantly I don't think he truly believes he can beat him. I also don't think he can beat Djokovic in a major as I think Djokovic has got too much stamina and too much creativity for Federer. Scot Andy Murray is still looking for his first major but I don't think he is ever going to win here and with each major that passes it's becoming less likely he will win one. So it's unlikely that anybody outside of the three wins the title here and even that is at a push as it seems Novak and Rafa are a class above the rest at the moment but as is the case with every Grand Slam anything can happen and everyone has to be at their best if they are to get deep into the second week.
Last year's Women's champion Na Li made the draw for the Men's singles on Friday and in that draw Djokovic was placed in Federer's half and Murray in Nadal's. Djokovic is at the very top of the draw and has been given a tricky route through and no doubt he will be challenged on his way to the later stages. Potito Starace is his first match and shouldn't provide any problems but a second round match with Lleyton Hewitt would be a tough match as Hewitt still has the ability to make the top players work very hard for points but ultimately he won't have enough to actually get over the line and win. In round 3 the Serb is likely to face Austrian Jurgen Melzer. That would be a good match for Novak as it will give him practice against a left hander which may be useful for the final. Even better for Djokovic could be a meeting in round 4 against left handed Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco beat Nadal recently but that was on the controversial blue clay in Madrid and Djokovic would have no problems with him if he were to face him. Verdasco has got to beat probably Gilles Muller and then either Nikolay Davydenko or Andreas Seppi in order to reach the fourth round. That's when the easy bit is finished for Novak and he begins to face some stern tests. A quarter final against more than likely Gilles Simon or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits and it will take all of Djokovic's skills to navigate that obstacle. Stanislas Wawrinka will be hoping he can force his way through to meet Djokovic but I think Simon is playing too well lately to lose early in his home Grand Slam.
In the second quarter Roger Federer (3rd seed) faces Tobias Kamke in the first round and should progress minimum fuss. A mouthwatering second round match with David Nalbandian would give the Swiss star a strong workout. The Argentine has got a very good record against Federer and will fancy his chances after some good form this year but I think over five sets Federer will overcome Nalbandian. The old foes don't stop there for Fed. A possible meeting with Andy Roddick awaits in the third round although Roddick has a tricky match with Nicolas Mahut in the opening round. Looking at his draw Roger has got a relatively easy route to the quarter final. A fourth round clash with Feliciano Lopez or Radek Stepanek isn't going to frighten Fed and it's not really until the quarter final that he comes into danger of actually losing. Juan Martin Del Potro and Thomas Berdych are fighting it out to face Federer in the quarter final and those two meeting in the fourth round would be a thrilling match as both have been sensational so far this season and their match in Madrid a few weeks ago was brilliant. I fancy Berdych to win that one and I'd even go as far to say he will beat Federer in the quarter final. I just think he's been brilliant this year and should have so many more wins than he has but has lost matches in final sets and is beaten only by the very best players and I think this might just be his tournament. I see him making a semi final against Djokovic and I would fancy that to go four or possibly five sets but ultimately it will be Djokovic in the final.
In the third section of the draw Andy Murray (4th seed) has got a very difficult task to make it deep into the second week. An easy opening two rounds against Tatsuma Ito and then probably Jarkko Nieminen won't pose too much problems but a third round encounter with Bernard Tomic would be an intersting match. Tomic is surely going to beat a top player at a Grand Slam soon but I don't think this is his time. Personally, I don't see Murray making it past the fourth round. He could face Richard Gasquet who beat him a few weeks ago in Rome or else Aleksandr Dolgopolov. I think Gasquet will beat Murray again simply because he plays aggressive and he is a shot maker that will expose Murray as a defensive player as hedid in Rome. Murray is hyped up under Lendl as being more aggressive and mentally stronger but I really don't see it apart from the first round or two of a tournament where he isn't under pressure. I also think Tommy Haas might be able to cause an upset or two in that section. He has played very well since returning to the tour and qualified with ease last week. A very interesting fourth round match from this section would be John Isner and David Ferrer. Ferrer has been outstanding this year but falls just short of winning the big tournaments when he faces Nadal, Federer and Djokovic while Isner has beaten both Federer and Djokovic this year and last year pushed Nadal to five sets in the first round. I think Ferrer will beat the big American and beat whichever of Gasquet, Murray or Dolgopolov to reach the semi finals. Sadly for Ferrer in the semi final he will once again face Rafa Nadal who he just cannot beat on clay. Ferrer would have every clay court tournament in the game won if he never faced Nadal.
Nadal is in the fourth section of the draw as second seed and really doesn't face much problems in his opening matches. Simone Bolelli won't have any weapons to push the Spaniard and neither will Denis Istomin or Florian Mayer. A fourth round match with Milos Raonic could be very interesting. I think on any other surface and over three sets Raonic might beat Nadal but here in Paris on clay, I just don't see it happening. For Raonic to reach that stage he would have to beat Juan Monaco which is also a very difficult task for him. Monaco is a very acomplished clay court player and if Raonic does beat him and reach the fourth round it will be a very successful French Open for him even if it does end against Nadal. In the quarter final Nadal could face in form Serb Janko Tipsarevic or Nicolas Almagro. Tipsarevic just helped Serbia win the World Team Championships where he beat Thomas Berdych in the first singles rubber of the final. Almagro just won the title in Nice and it would be a fascinating match between these two for the right t play Nadal. Sam Querrey is Tipsarevic's first round opponent and that's the sort of match he could lose if he isn't on his game while Philip Kohlschreiber will be Almagro's toughest test although I wouldn't see Almagro losing that. I think it will be an all-Spaniard quarter final between Almagro and Nadal which Nadal should win in straight sets.
So in my opinion we will see Novak Djokovic and Thomas Berdych in one semi final and Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer in the other. As good as Ferrer and Berdych are and have been this season I don't think either would be capable of winning three sets off Djokovic or Nadal. That would leave us with the Nadal and Djokovic final that will go down as a historic occasion no matter who wins. As i said a few weeks ago both players had something to prove in Rome when they got back onto the red clay and they proved it when they provided us with a thrilling dress rehearsal for what may be to come in a fortnight's time. I think it would be a thrilling match and although Djokovic has won the last three Grand Slams I just don't think he can beat Nadal in Paris. Nadal is almost unbeatable here and with the confidence of beating Djokovic twice on clay already this season he will be confident of regaining his crown. He has only lost once and that was when he was clearly injured and suffering from knee problems which also forced him out of Wimbledon. Apart from that nobody has really come close to beating him here. He hold a 45-1 record here and I think he will make it seven Roland Garros titles. The events of the clay court season so far and all the great matches we have seen it look set to end with a thrilling French Open filled with great tennis and that's exactly what I'm expecting from the next two weeks.
Monday, 14 May 2012
The Effect of the Blue Clay and the Rome Masters
Last week Roger Federer took over as World Number 2 from Rafael Nadal after winning the Madrid Masters 1000 event. Fed's victory however will not be the main headline from the week as the event moved away from the traditional red clay and switched to blue, supposedly for better viewer and player enjoyment of the game. The blue clay was supposed to provide improvements for both players and viewers from home as visibility of marks from shots was to increase thus improving the ability to see line calls. The idea sounds great, however a number of players voiced their concerns over the surface and at the end of the week it had disgruntled more players than it had pleased.
Worryingly for the organisers, the most vocal of the players have been Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the two best players of the past 18 months. For me, when Nadal wins 8 Monte Carlo titles in a row, 7 Barcelona titles, 5 Rome titles and a stunning 6 Roland Garros titles all on clay and then complains about the clay surface at Madrid there is a problem. When the current Wimbledon, US Open and Australian Open champion and 2011 Madrid champion complains about the surface there is a problem. These complaints are worrying for the future of the tournament. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that the decision was made without consulting with the players. It was made without giving the players a chance to test out the surface and give their opinions or even vote on whether they thought it was a necessary change or not. The biggest complaint was of the players not having free movement on the surface. The surface was too thin and gave little grip which was a major problem for players who rely on their movement to dominate their opponents.
The players who seemed to prosper on the blue were the big hitters and all round players such as Del Potro, Berdych, Federer and the players who seemed to falter were those who move well and rely on movement such as Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal had beaten Fernando Verdasco in all of their 13 meetings until last week where he lost in three sets having led 5-2 lead in the deciding set. Djokovic unusually lost to Janko Tipsarevic the day after Nadal lost and both players were heavily critical of the surface in their post match press conferences. The surface seemed to reward the players who were aggressive and had big serves and ground strokes. A perfect example is Tipsarevic against Djokovic. Tipsarevic isn't known as a big hitter but played aggressively and hit 30 winners in the two sets they played.
After his first round match where world number 116 Daniel Gimeno-Traver took a set off him, Djokovic said "I hit five balls throughout the whole match, Everything else I was just trying to put the ball in the court so I just rely on my serve and getting some points eventually from his unforced errors, For me that's not tennis. Either I come up with the football shoes or I invite Chuck Norris to advise me on how I should play on this court." That wasn't the end if his complaints as he went on to say he was not alone in his opinion as other players he had spoken to about it also expressed concerns and slammed the fact players were not being listened to "I know for certain that there are so many players that I talked to these last three or four days that share the same opinion. I take things very seriously regarding the surfaces and regarding our circuit. I think all the players' opinions have to be heard and have to be considered. This tournament and this decision to change to the blue clay is an example of players not being considered and heard and their opinions being ignored so I really hope that this is going to change in the future."
Nadal also expressed his concern over his movement due to the surface "I know what I am saying. I always like playing in Madrid and I try to do as well as possible and that is why I got here early. This surface is totally different to what we are used to. I don't want to risk injury to my hip, it hurts because I continually had to correct myself on court and I will not take risks with my health, so I would rather not come." Nadal echoed Djokovic's cry by saying movement was critical for him also not just on clay but on a tennis court in general and the blue clay didn't provide him with a chance to move well.
I agree with Rafa and Novak on this one. I think it was wrong to introduce the blue without the players having their say on it, not just the top players but all the players. The timing of the change has played havoc with the preparations for the French Open. The timing of Madrid has always been poor in my opinion. If Madrid is to be played on clay and in the Spring/Summer clay court swing then it has to be one of the first tournaments on clay. The altitude makes it so much different for the players and it's very different from the conditions of the French Open. Players get to play in Monte Carlo and Barcelona and Belgrade etc. in conditions similar to that of Paris and then have to go to Madrid and play in different conditions where they have to alter their game. Then players return to the normal conditions when they play in Rome a week before the French Open. It can throw players preparations at the wrong time. Players like Albert Ramos, who was having a great clay court season then lost in Madrid in his first match which could set him back. Nadal had built up a head of steam coming towards the French Open and then lost early which again may cause damage to his preparations. Djokovic will be looking to win the French Open to complete a career grand slam and last week may have dented his chances slightly.
Unfortunately for fans of the Madrid Masters 1000 fans and tennis fans around the world it looks like Nadal and Djokovic have left the organisers with an ultimatum, lose the blue or lose their participation. After losing to Verdasco, Nadal said "The only thing that I know is that if things continue like this I am very sad but next year will be one less tournament in my calendar." Toni Nadal (Rafa's lifelong coach and uncle) gave no indication that he would advise Rafa otherwise, he even said he advised him not to play this year "I told Rafa not to play [Madrid] this year and I hope he doesn't play the next time." That was backed up by Novak after he crashed out to Tipsarevic. I found an interesting article which has part of an interview Djokovic done where he left no stone unturned in his attack on the surface and tournament "I really don't need to meet anybody. There is no discussion in my eyes, it's very simple. No blue clay for me. That's it. The test has failed. This is totally different in the middle of the red clay season. I'm coming here as a defending champion and I have a lot things which are important. If I cannot move and I put this pressure all the time on my muscles and the body and having it in my mind the worry of hopefully not getting injured and making some quick moves because the court is so unpredictable, then really, what's the sense in playing here? This is what it is for 2012, 2013 if they still blue and come up for fluorescent balls, whatever they come up with, they can have their own tournament, but I'm not coming for sure." Now the question is whether or not the tournament will have blue next year. Could they survive without the two best players in the world and two of the main attractions of the game at the moment?
I think this week we can expect Nadal and Djokovic to be at the business end of the Rome Masters 1000. Both players will be out to make a statement after last week's preceedings and prove their ability on the traditional clay. I think we can expect a very good display from both men as they look to get back on track for their preparations and I wouldn't want to be in the firing line of either player. I'd expect both to be in the final despite the talent on show. Federer will have a chance if he can bring his form into this week but I don't think he'll beat either Nadal or Djokovic on the traditional clay. Del Potro could have a big say this week. He's been brilliant on clay so far and a meeting with Djokovic in the quarter finals is on the cards and that would be a huge meeting. I would give Novak the edge though I think he'll beat Federer in the semi finals too, provided Isner doesn't score another win over the Swiss star. Andy Murray faces Nalbandian in the first round and that will certainly test the Scot. I don't see him making the semi finals as players such as Gasquet and a more testing David Ferrer are in his section. I'd expect Ferrer and Nadal to meet in the semi finals but Nadal will be tested along the way by Thomas Berdych but I don't see Nadal losing. A Nadal-Djokovic final is on the cards and I think it would be a fascinating encounter with the French Open just around the corner. Both men will play down the importance of the final but I think both will be looking to win and gain momentum ahead of Roland Garros, Nadal to prove he's conquered the mental barrier and Djokovic to regain his dominance. I'd give a slight nod to Nadal simply because of his clay court prowess and his form in Monte Carlo and Barcelona but it is a very close one to call. I'd certainly watch the action from Rome this week to see the response of players back on the red clay this week and to see how players are performing before the next Grand Slam.
Worryingly for the organisers, the most vocal of the players have been Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the two best players of the past 18 months. For me, when Nadal wins 8 Monte Carlo titles in a row, 7 Barcelona titles, 5 Rome titles and a stunning 6 Roland Garros titles all on clay and then complains about the clay surface at Madrid there is a problem. When the current Wimbledon, US Open and Australian Open champion and 2011 Madrid champion complains about the surface there is a problem. These complaints are worrying for the future of the tournament. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that the decision was made without consulting with the players. It was made without giving the players a chance to test out the surface and give their opinions or even vote on whether they thought it was a necessary change or not. The biggest complaint was of the players not having free movement on the surface. The surface was too thin and gave little grip which was a major problem for players who rely on their movement to dominate their opponents.
The players who seemed to prosper on the blue were the big hitters and all round players such as Del Potro, Berdych, Federer and the players who seemed to falter were those who move well and rely on movement such as Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal had beaten Fernando Verdasco in all of their 13 meetings until last week where he lost in three sets having led 5-2 lead in the deciding set. Djokovic unusually lost to Janko Tipsarevic the day after Nadal lost and both players were heavily critical of the surface in their post match press conferences. The surface seemed to reward the players who were aggressive and had big serves and ground strokes. A perfect example is Tipsarevic against Djokovic. Tipsarevic isn't known as a big hitter but played aggressively and hit 30 winners in the two sets they played.
After his first round match where world number 116 Daniel Gimeno-Traver took a set off him, Djokovic said "I hit five balls throughout the whole match, Everything else I was just trying to put the ball in the court so I just rely on my serve and getting some points eventually from his unforced errors, For me that's not tennis. Either I come up with the football shoes or I invite Chuck Norris to advise me on how I should play on this court." That wasn't the end if his complaints as he went on to say he was not alone in his opinion as other players he had spoken to about it also expressed concerns and slammed the fact players were not being listened to "I know for certain that there are so many players that I talked to these last three or four days that share the same opinion. I take things very seriously regarding the surfaces and regarding our circuit. I think all the players' opinions have to be heard and have to be considered. This tournament and this decision to change to the blue clay is an example of players not being considered and heard and their opinions being ignored so I really hope that this is going to change in the future."
Nadal also expressed his concern over his movement due to the surface "I know what I am saying. I always like playing in Madrid and I try to do as well as possible and that is why I got here early. This surface is totally different to what we are used to. I don't want to risk injury to my hip, it hurts because I continually had to correct myself on court and I will not take risks with my health, so I would rather not come." Nadal echoed Djokovic's cry by saying movement was critical for him also not just on clay but on a tennis court in general and the blue clay didn't provide him with a chance to move well.
I agree with Rafa and Novak on this one. I think it was wrong to introduce the blue without the players having their say on it, not just the top players but all the players. The timing of the change has played havoc with the preparations for the French Open. The timing of Madrid has always been poor in my opinion. If Madrid is to be played on clay and in the Spring/Summer clay court swing then it has to be one of the first tournaments on clay. The altitude makes it so much different for the players and it's very different from the conditions of the French Open. Players get to play in Monte Carlo and Barcelona and Belgrade etc. in conditions similar to that of Paris and then have to go to Madrid and play in different conditions where they have to alter their game. Then players return to the normal conditions when they play in Rome a week before the French Open. It can throw players preparations at the wrong time. Players like Albert Ramos, who was having a great clay court season then lost in Madrid in his first match which could set him back. Nadal had built up a head of steam coming towards the French Open and then lost early which again may cause damage to his preparations. Djokovic will be looking to win the French Open to complete a career grand slam and last week may have dented his chances slightly.
Unfortunately for fans of the Madrid Masters 1000 fans and tennis fans around the world it looks like Nadal and Djokovic have left the organisers with an ultimatum, lose the blue or lose their participation. After losing to Verdasco, Nadal said "The only thing that I know is that if things continue like this I am very sad but next year will be one less tournament in my calendar." Toni Nadal (Rafa's lifelong coach and uncle) gave no indication that he would advise Rafa otherwise, he even said he advised him not to play this year "I told Rafa not to play [Madrid] this year and I hope he doesn't play the next time." That was backed up by Novak after he crashed out to Tipsarevic. I found an interesting article which has part of an interview Djokovic done where he left no stone unturned in his attack on the surface and tournament "I really don't need to meet anybody. There is no discussion in my eyes, it's very simple. No blue clay for me. That's it. The test has failed. This is totally different in the middle of the red clay season. I'm coming here as a defending champion and I have a lot things which are important. If I cannot move and I put this pressure all the time on my muscles and the body and having it in my mind the worry of hopefully not getting injured and making some quick moves because the court is so unpredictable, then really, what's the sense in playing here? This is what it is for 2012, 2013 if they still blue and come up for fluorescent balls, whatever they come up with, they can have their own tournament, but I'm not coming for sure." Now the question is whether or not the tournament will have blue next year. Could they survive without the two best players in the world and two of the main attractions of the game at the moment?
I think this week we can expect Nadal and Djokovic to be at the business end of the Rome Masters 1000. Both players will be out to make a statement after last week's preceedings and prove their ability on the traditional clay. I think we can expect a very good display from both men as they look to get back on track for their preparations and I wouldn't want to be in the firing line of either player. I'd expect both to be in the final despite the talent on show. Federer will have a chance if he can bring his form into this week but I don't think he'll beat either Nadal or Djokovic on the traditional clay. Del Potro could have a big say this week. He's been brilliant on clay so far and a meeting with Djokovic in the quarter finals is on the cards and that would be a huge meeting. I would give Novak the edge though I think he'll beat Federer in the semi finals too, provided Isner doesn't score another win over the Swiss star. Andy Murray faces Nalbandian in the first round and that will certainly test the Scot. I don't see him making the semi finals as players such as Gasquet and a more testing David Ferrer are in his section. I'd expect Ferrer and Nadal to meet in the semi finals but Nadal will be tested along the way by Thomas Berdych but I don't see Nadal losing. A Nadal-Djokovic final is on the cards and I think it would be a fascinating encounter with the French Open just around the corner. Both men will play down the importance of the final but I think both will be looking to win and gain momentum ahead of Roland Garros, Nadal to prove he's conquered the mental barrier and Djokovic to regain his dominance. I'd give a slight nod to Nadal simply because of his clay court prowess and his form in Monte Carlo and Barcelona but it is a very close one to call. I'd certainly watch the action from Rome this week to see the response of players back on the red clay this week and to see how players are performing before the next Grand Slam.
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